October 30th Weather Discussion

October 30th Weather Discussion

October 27th High temp @ KABE was 54 degrees
October 28th high temp @ KABE was 57 degrees
October 29th high temp @ KABE was 60 degrees

Tired of the Rain Yet?
I am sorry about not updating this on a daily basis but been rather sick with a combination of the Flu and quite possibly Pancreatitis....So if it is not updated that is why...
Today is going to be mainly a cloudy day across the region with a chance of showers to the North and west of the area. By evening time the rainfall will spread further to the east. A cold front is advancing towards the region and this will be responsible for the rainfall. Most areas though unless N & W will generally be rain free although some shower activity can not be ruled completely out.

Temperatures thru out the region will be in the lower 50s to lower 60s..

Weekend Rains!

Low pressure will be heading towards the Great lakes into Southeast Canada. This is going to cause a cold front to move thru the area over the weekend. Low pressure is expected to develop along this front over the southern states and then move up off the eastern seaboard. The combination of the advancing cold front and this low pressure will bring unsettled weather into the region over the weekend....

October 27th Weather Discussion

October 27th Weather Discussion


October 25th high temperature @ KABE was 62 degrees
October 26th High temp @ KABE was 62 degrees

Rainy Weather On Tap Once Again!

An important note to feature about the month of October is how wet the month has become..Keep this thought in the back of your mind as you think about the winter.

Today will be a mostly cloudy day across the vast majority of the region. However...not all areas will see rainfall. The rainfall will be mainly confined to SNE and points south and east along the coast and not very far inland...The more west you go and the less precipitation you will find. For how much rainfall I believe will occur...either visit my blog or you can visit the Accu Weather forums and look in the thread for October 38-30th.
Temperatures are generally going to be in the 20s and 40s across Maine to the 50-60 region elsewhere from PA north. South of Pa will generally be in the upper 50s to upper 60s.
Again, there will be a coastal low effecting the region and another low heading up thru the mississippi valley and ohio valley before reforming off the Atlantic Coast. These two low pressure areas will keep the coastal regions on the wet side..

More Rain On The Way-Oct 27-28th 2009

Low pressure currently developing along the Carolina coast line will continue to slowly move off to the NNE. Meanwhile another area of low pressure will continue to develop over the Texas and Louisiana area and then this will move to the NE thru the ohio valley and then reform off the coast of the mid atlantic. These two areas of low pressure will bring another round of rainfall across the region.

October 25th Weather Discussion

October 25th Weather Discussion

A step back down!

October 24th high temperature was 71 degrees @ KABE

Today is going to be a much better day as far as the weather is concerned. Yesterday was pretty much a gully washer across the area..even though the temperatures were warm. It was wet!
Today will end up being a mostly sunny day across the vast majority of the region. Perhaps some showers along the far NNE area early in the day but even then they will be clearing out.
Temperatures are taking a step back down across most of the region. 40s and 50s across Maine which is actually warmer for them compared to yesterday...the rest of the interior of the northeast will be the mid to upper 50s. For SNE and along the coastal regions...upper 50s to lower 60s...South of PA ..mid to upper 60s..except the further south you go the lower 70s. Pretty much a step back to reality...

Severe For OCT 24, 2009

Low pressure over the GL region will continue to lift off to the NE. This will cause a warm front to move thru the region...followed by a cold front. CAPE is only minimal around 500...However, dewpoints are forecasted to be in the 60s. According to the SREF strong shear of 40-60 knots will be present.

However...I think one hindering factor to any severe weather at least from PA northwards will be the cloud cover and rain which could put a limit on how much day time heating can occur. So while I think its possible that there could be some wind damage.. i think the main chances will be further to the south where the calibrated 3 hr severe chances are better. In those areas..there could be a few supercells that would be capable of producing a few tornadoes.

October 24th Daily Weather Discussion

October 24th Daily Discussion

Oct 22nd high at KABE was 73
October 23rd high at KABE was 59

Rainy Day on tap!

For all intents and purposes today keep the umbrella handy! Majority of the region will be under rainfall throut the day today..along with the potential for some general thunderstorms that will produce heavier rains. The only exception to this may be NE maine where it may be cold enough for some frozen precipitation.
Temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s in the NE half of maine.. to the 50s in the southern part.. The rest of the region will be in the upper 50s to upper 60s. To the south of PA upper 60s to the upper 70s and the more southeast you go lower 80s.

November 2009 Outlook

Look for the pattern this month to be in reloading mode. Essentially what that means is overall the PNA should be negative and the NAO positive and the EPO should mainly be positive with the AO also positive. There may be periods like the beginning of the month where a transient cold shot could occur but it would be short lived...

Oct 22nd Weather Discussion

October 22nd Weather Discussion

Weather Extremes in the same day!
Depending on your location will depend on your weather today! Low pressure moving across the region into NNE is going to bring that area, specifically the state of Maine a chance of rain and or snow. There will also be a chance of rain across the other regions of NNE as well. To the south of that region it will be mainly sunny but with some high thin cloudiness in advance of the next rainmaker. By the end of the day clouds will basically be across the whole region.
Temperatures are going to be from one extreme to the other as well. If you are like me you are probably tired of the temperatures over the last two days. Today will be the last day of above normal temperatures. In the state of Maine the temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s. Across the rest of the region temperatures will be in the upper 60s to mid and upper 70s, Upper 70s mainly confined to the south of PA...

Oct 19th, high temp at KABE was 57
Oct 20th High temp at KABE was 66
Oct 21st High temp at KABE was 71

Rainfall Amounts For Oct 23-25

Low pressure currently over Michigan along a frontal boundary will continue to advance off to the east and pass to the north over NNE. Meanwhile, a stationary front extends southwest from that low pressure to another area of low pressure developing over Kansas. From there southwest ward extends a cold front to another area of low pressure developing over SW texas. This complex frontal system is working its way towards the region. Low pressure will advance from the SW in a NE'rly direction into the Great Lakes region. This will cause a warm front to move thru the region in advance of a cold front that will cross the region late in the day or evening on saturday. This complex scenario will bring rainfall into the region during the day on friday and lasting into the first part of the weekend , thru the day on saturday. Rainfall will finally begin to taper off across the southern regions late on saturday evening. Generally .75- 1.75 inches of rain can be expected across the forecast area..

October 19th Weather Discussion

October 19th Weather Discussion

Not as cold but still below normal!
October 16 high temperature at KABE was 44 degrees
October 17th High temperature at KABE was 46 degrees
October 18th High temperature at KABE was 52

Today will be a mostly sunny day across the region with the exception of extreme NNE where they will still be experiencing the remnants of what remains of the 2nd Historical storm of October to drop snowfall in locations of the Mid Atlantic and the NE. In those ares they will be experiencing some rain and higher elevation snows and would not be too surprised if some lower elevations mixed as well or picked up some snowfall. The rest of us like i said will be under mostly sunny skies and moderating temperatures but still below normal.
Temperatures will be 40-50 across Maine and in the lower to mid 50s with some upper 50s across the rest of the northeast. South of PA temperatures will primarily be in the upper 50s to upper 60s.

Final Winter 2009-2010 Outlook Issued Oct 18, 2009

To gain a clear perspective to the winter of 2009-2010 , I feel its pretty much important to look at what has been occurring over the summer and early part of fall.. Pretty much what has been the dominant pattern? What teleconnections have been essentially controlling the weather? . Basically since May 2009 we have been under a pattern that has been controlled by a Negative NAO (to neutral) a Negative EPO (to neutral) and a Positive PNA (to neutral)..This has been essentially the pattern that we have been being dominated by. This pattern was responsible for a relatively up and down summer and perhaps one could say more down then up? The Year that will be remembered as the Year Without A Summer to many across the Northeast. So what happened during this time period?


The month of May 2009, we ended up pretty much above normal temperature wise across the region. There will always be a small area of exception to this rule.

Then along came June and July 2009 ..that swung the pendulum in the opposite direction, back to below normal temperatures.Now what happened come August of 2009?

Another relaxation period had taken place. The temperatures swung the pendulum once again. The month of August ended up above normal.

Proceeding on this pattern..my calculations had pretty much put September into the below normal category,as well as put October 2009 into the below normal category across the region. Above is October to date.
Following this pattern recognition, this implies that we should have a relaxation period for the month of November..where temperatures will be above normal.The CFS actually shows this occurring.
Then back to December & January Below normal. Wash, rinse and repeat.
The above pattern is what I have referred to as Trough Zonal Trough. Essentially meaning that there will be thru out the month troughs across the east, followed by zonal (relaxation or reloading) followed by troughs again. I have called this pattern the T.Z.T pattern.
Looking at el nino years 1970,1972,1974,1975,1976,1977,1979,1981,1982,1984,
985,1986,1992,1996,1997,2000,2004. Out of the above el nino years..seventeen total, 9 of the 17 winters following a cooler then normal summer..came out colder then average. So this is better then 50% of the winters came out colder then normal.
This brings me back to the month of October 2009. As research by N.W.S Rainshadow (Tony) has showed 16 out of 17 Winters that had an October colder then normal ended up with a winter that was colder then normal.
In addition to the colder then normal month of October we have also had some other records set for the month. Five records alone were set in one single day in State College Pa with a Historic Early Season snowstorm. So, in some sense, the potential for historical cold and snow that I was talking about has already at least partially come true. Places in MD, October 17th received there earliest snowfall in many, many years & would not be surprised if those were also Historical records broken. Also the B.W.I airport had there lowest daily high temperature on record ..which broke the 1871 record on the 16th of October.
As far as the El Nino is concerned.. I still do not think that this El Nino is going to peak past Weak. It would take some pretty major warming to have this El Nino come out with a Tri Monthly average of 1.2 or higher. So i believe we will maintain a weak El Nino ..although Nino Regions 3.4 and 4 could warm some more. The SOI is negative and should pretty much balance itself out between negative to neutral.
The PDO. It is a basic given that the PDO during El Nino falls starts to warm up. So we have a warming PDO. This is a KEY factor to the winter coming up. Essentially every cold El Nino occurred with the PDO warming in the fall months. September PDO value was 0.52..prior months to that were Aug 0.9 and July -0.53. See here<---

With the El Nino maintaining or strengthening and being in the fall months. my calculations show that October PDO should come in slightly more positive then Sept PDO.
West based or east based El nino? Essentially with the warmest waters in regions 3.4 and 4..we are currently dealing with a West based El Nino and I pretty much expect that to continue thru out the winter.
Weather Pattern as stated above has been pretty much controlled by T.Z.T and that is the pattern I expect to maintain itself thru winter. This pattern will be pretty much a -EPO +PNA and -NAO. This pattern will have times thru out the winter months where it will have to relax and reload. Its during these times that we will experience a positive NAO, a neutral to negative PNA and a positive EPO and a +AO. However, during these relaxation times, cold air will build up in Canada and then when the pendulum swings back to the dominating pattern the cold air will release into the USA and the dominating -EPO + PNA -NAO will return.
Storm tracks.
I am anticipating the southern Jet Stream to be quite active. This will lead to a good amount of storms forming in the GOM and then riding up and along the eastern seaboard. Not all them will follow all the way up the coast, as is pretty common with El Ninos, we will also have our fair share of Southern Sliders. The other two storm tracks will be Alberta Clippers that drop down out of the Midwest and then reform off the east coast..And still yet one more track would be what I like to call bowling ball systems. These are essentially storms that at the Latitude they enter, they move west to east and exit off the east coast at essentially the same latitude they entered on the west.
Analogs used were 1904-1905, 1977-1978, 2002-2003, along with past weather history, including recent weather history.
So with that all said here are the revised, updated...final outlook. I do realize that there are some that are not going to agree with the images in this post. That is completely fine. However...this post and out look contains a lot of history in it to support the forecast.

October Pattern Update For the Mid Atlantic /Northeast

Relaxation in the Pattern-Its Only Temporary!

As everyone knows a pattern has to relax at some point and time and that is exactly what is going to happen to some extent. Looking at the teleconnections we come across the following when looking at the ensemble connections.

The Arctic Oscillation is now neutral. When the Arctic Oscillation is essentially neutral the cold air relaxes and that is exactly what is going to be occurring.
The EPO is going to be mainly neutral to positive. When the EPO is neutral to positive it generally means warm Pacific air will infiltrate most of the US, and keep things warm - especially across the northern 1/2 of the country.
However...the PNA is positive which generally means downstream effects of a +PNA are typically for a West coast ridge/East coast trough pattern.
And then the NAO is neutral to negative which generally means downstream effect of this feature is for cold conditions to occur along the East Coast.
Lets go back to the Arctic Oscillation. As i stated at the beginning the AO is neutral which means that the cold air is relaxing. When it relaxes what is actually occurring is the cold air shifts back up into canada and starts to get bottled up.
So when it comes to the teleconnections in place what we are looking at is one signal which would indicate warm pacific air penetrating the US but we have three other signals that indicate a colder then normal scenario.
Now, lets once again go back to the Arctic Oscillation. When cold air is locked up over Canada it starts to build up. And kind of compare it to a bottle of Pepsi. The lid is on when you purchase the soda but what happens if you shake that bottle of pepsi and then remove the lid without waiting? That soda would "explode over and spill out" and head southwards down the bottle and on to the floor or where ever you happen to be at that time. The AO works the exact same way and we see that 7 days from now the AO is expected to tank once again.
So we have one teleconnection that would favor milder air being outweighed by three teleconnections that would signal a below normal regime and then a strong signal of the AO tanking.
So, my take on what is going to happen is that a ridge is going to try and build into the region the early part of this week. However..because of the teleconnections that are in place this is going to help to establish a mean trough in the east central part of the USA. So we may be looking at a period of a couple days at maximum that get to seasonal to perhaps slightly above normal temperatures before once again sliding back down to below normal.
The feature that will help to establish this mean east central US trough will be a a S/W that comes out of Southern California heads off to the east before moving NE into the Great Lakes region which will then send a cold front across the eastern half of the country which then helps to establish the trough into the east. This will provide a very wet pattern to the eastern half of the country in addition to turning the temperatures back to below normal. This wet pattern is also another reason why the temperatures will only get to seasonal levels.
There is a question as to how much the remnants of Hurricane Rick get involved with this as well. At the time that the remnants of Rick would be moving across TX ..there is a trough that reaches its southern extent into that area. So, if that trough can manage to pick up the remnants of Rick..then this would enhance the rainfall associated with the cold front progressing to the east.
So overall, look for a few days of seasonal to slightly above temperature to be followed by below normal temperatures once again to carry out the rest of this month. Also look for an increasingly wet scenario towards the end of the week .

Wave #2 Update

Low pressure should develop off of the Delmarva this evening. This low pressure should begin to intensify as it moves off slowly to the north and then to the ENE..We are already beginning to see signs of this area of low pressure developing as pressure falls are lower off the coast of the Delmarva..
You also notice the low pressure starting to develop when looking at the visible satellite..
I am basing this forecast off the ECM as it has been the most consistent with wave #2. The ECM moves this low rather slowly as its still sitting off the delmarva at 12 Z.. 850s are cold enough N & W of the big cities to support snow...however..the BL temps are going to be an issue. There is a high pressure to the north and a 50/50 low in place. However..one thing we are lacking is a fresh feed of arctic air. Instead we are left with a stale arctic air mass in place.

Now theres a matter of how fast this low can intensify and how much dynamics come into play. Dynamical cooling could take place.. but even the current dewpoints are in the range of 30-40..The lowest of which is in N PA into SNE..where they are 30-35..
So currently, even with anticipating dynamical cooling and temps dropping to there dewpoints we would be looking at temperature range of 30-40. This will not be sufficient for any snow fall as far as accumulating snow , exceptions possibly being over the higher elevations where the temperatures would be lower. As the low passes to the north of the region..it may be able to wrap in some colder air so that any moisture that is left over tomorrow evening..may end as some brief snowshowers.

So I am expecting a primary rain event possibly ending with some flakes of snow.
On the map I did not indicate any snowfall but the above basically discusses the areas that could potentially see some snowfall out of it. Basically its a wait and see situation when it comes to the higher elevations..However...at this point and time even places that seen snow from wave #1 such as state college are currently receiving rainfall...

Wave #2 October 16-18th

The above is what I have been waiting for. For the purpose of this discussion will not be using the GFS.

Currently over the midwest, once again we have energy that is digging down to the southeast.You can see this piece of energy just to the south of Iowa at the time the 12 Z ECM was initialized. Steering currents are pretty much set up to keep this S/W diving along to the SE. You can see this pretty much when you look at the visible satellite as well.
At 24 hours out...the energy is essentially in the Southeast part of the USA around Louisianna. The digging of this S/W causes a strong trough to be carved out over the east and a -EPO ridge to form in the west. The position of the through ATM is a little further to the east then what it was yesterday! This will cause the low pressure to form a little further off the coast of Hatteras then it did with wave #1. You can see the pressure falls already off the coast as things are beginning to gel together.
The Upper level low over the Southeast is going to pull the coastal back towards the coast. Also helping in this process will be the high pressure out in the atlantic flexing its muscles and pushing this coastal low towards the coast as well. You can see this occurring between 24 and 48 hours on the ECM..
Now...to the Northeast of this coastal low we have a 50/50 low in place. We also have a high pressure area to the north of the coastal. IF this were winter time you would have the main ingredients in place for a major east coast snowstorm. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and the coastal low will produce some strong gusty winds in particular along the coast.
The 850s are cold enough to support snowfall on the ECM. I do not think that there is any question about that. At 48 hours the high pressure is located to the north of the system. By 72 hours this high pressure pulls off to the NE..However...judging by where it is at 72 hours for the duration of this event it appears as if it would be to the north of the system.
So the question basically boils down to surface temperatures. I think the GFS is too warm because it has the low pressure system further north then any other guidance and therefore is considered an outlier. The NAM is actually coming in colder then what it originally was as the NAM is starting to shift the low pressure further to the south then what its prior runs were. Basically high temperatures for this storm should be in the 30s to 40s. Pretty much essentially what they were with wave #1. This is going to end up being more of an actual COASTAL storm which means that it will not spread moisture all that far to the west .I believe there will be a tight gradient when it comes to the moisture with this system. I also believe that this is going to be a smaller system..hence a tighter system and more dynamical system then wave #1.
With 850s cold enough to produce snow and marginal surface temperatures and a NE wind I believe that we should be able to see areas of dynamical cooling and evaporational cooling. Once precipitation starts this should help to drag colder air towards the surface.
I do not think that it will be enough though for the coastal areas where this will be a primary rain event. However..i do think that there is a possibility at some point and time during this coastal storm that snowflakes could get into the rain. Snow will basically be confined to the higher elevations in interior sections. Depending on how strong this coastal can strengthen will determine whether we can get enough cold air down to the surface to see any snowfall closer to the big cities or even in the big cities. If this were to occur i think the better chance for it to happen would be Philadelphia, rather then NYC due to the marine influence around the NYC area. However...I am not ruling out some flakes possible even in NYC.

October 16th Weather Discussion

October 16th Weather Discussion

Side Note: When there is a winter storm this thread might not be updated on a daily basis because of tracking down the winter storm. Forecast can always be found in the appropriate thread...

October 14th High temperature at KABE was 51 degrees
October 15th High temperature at KABE was 44 degrees (early in the morning hours between 12 AM & 6 AM)

RECORD SET ON OCT 15th
Trace of SNOW!

The Cold That Could Not Happen!

The cold that could not happen is dominating our weather pattern as an early season arctic blast in combination with a coastal low delivering an interior snowstorm to parts of PA into the NE...That area is starting to pull out of the region but with the trough over us and the instability in the air the rain and snowshower and periods of snow mixed with rain will continue until.....Well the until is another day

Suffice to say that today is going to be another cold day. Temperatures will be in the mid 30s to mid 40s. With cloud cover in place and on and off precipitation ..essentially the temperatures should stay steady ..So if you are in the 30s ..chances are you will stay there...if in the 40s chances are you will stay there for your high temps...

Stay tuned to the oct 15-18th thread to see what might be occurring next ! As always enjoy the weather and enjoy the cold and enjoy the SNOW!

Wave #1 Rain and Snow!

Update on Potential Snow From Two Waves!

In reference to wave #1...I do not think that wave # 1 is going to be that much of a snow producer except for over the mountainous areas in SC PA and perhaps around the BGM area. Wave #1 when you look at the radar...is actually like I said moving in ahead of schedule.

However...steering currents are set up as to take this wave on a mainly ENE basis. Currently the low pressure is over West central Tennessee... This wave should continue to progress ENE but the bulk of the precipitation should stay over the southern regions from PA to extreme SNE...and points south. Majority of this will be a mainly rain event...
The importance of wave #1 is that the more southeast position of this allows the setup for the next wave which I think is the more important of the two waves as far as winter weather is concerned. This allows the negative EPO ridge to rise in the west and carves out a deeper trough along the eastern coast. While this is happening energy will be rounding the base of the carved out trough and position itself off the Carolina coast. It is this piece of energy that will become the main showmaker. With the trough carved out across the east and the ridge out west...this piece of energy will ride up the coast with a 1030 HP to its north. This will allow the 850s to be cold enough to support snowfall and with a 1030 HP to the north set the stage for a potential interior Northeast snowstorm. You can see this on the ECM from 12 Z...
As i mentioned, the 12 Z GFS...is confused with the amount of S/Ws or pieces of energy that it has within the trough...
Generally, the first wave should also help to pull down to the surface some of the colder air aloft. Also helping to aid in the 2nd wave potential outcome. With the second wave I think there is a good possibility that snowflakes will even make it into the bigger cities of the NE as I think the 2nd wave will have much better dynamics to work with. The 2nd wave will be more like a true Noreaster compared to the first wave which will be more like a southern slider.
So to sum things up ..Wave #1 will primarily be rain and the moisture will probably only make it as far north as SNE. Wave #2 is the most interesting wave with better dynamics and colder air. Wave #1 sets up the stage for wave #2...
I will probably issue a rainfall map for wave #1 during the course of the afternoon. Wave #1 will not have a snowfall map issued as it will primarily be the mountains in SC PA ...and perhaps around the BGM area...

Did Someone Say Snow? Maybe :)

This will be fine tuned and a discussion will be issued in the next 24-36 hours!

October 14th Weather Discussion

October 14th Weather Discussion

Going to be bearing down!
October 13th high temperature at KABE was 62 degrees...A warmer day that ended on a negative departure of -2

Today is mainly going to be a day with partly sunny skies becoming cloudy in the evening hours. There is a good chance though that clouds could be the rule more then sun. Its going to be a primarily dry day with the exception of NNE that might see some scattered shower and snowshowers.
The main weather story for today will be the start of the cold air influencing the region and starting to put the region in a firmer grasp.
Temperatures, 40s for the interior regions from Maine to PA...along the coast low to mid 50s...South of PA upper 40s to upper 50s. As one can tell the cold air is making headway to the south!

October 13th Weather Discussion

October 13th Weather Discussion

Get ready for the cold!

The high temp on Oct 11 @KABE was 61
The High temp on Oct 12 @ KABE was 50

Todays weather is going to offer plenty of different weather. From the chance of showers across the southern sections early in the morning to a more steadier rain to the north along with snow to the north over NNE , such as MAINE, the mountains of VT, NH and even the mountains in NNY...
I think there is a 50/50 shot that we might see some clearing during the day but for the most part I expect clouds to be more dominant then sunshine. If you want to look at today as warm across the southern areas..it will feel warm compared to what is on the way after tomorrow..
Todays high temps across SNE and into the south and east of PA and NJ will be in the low to mid 60s. To the south of PA upper 60s to mid 70s. Its going to feel like winter in NNE though. Mid 30s to mid 40s in Maine and NNE moderating to the lower to mid 50s across the rest of the interior of the NE into the state of PA.
This is a reminder that the air that is going to be arriving after today is going to be the coldest air of the season with departures as low as 20 below the normal highs. So by all means bundle up.

October 11th Weather Discussion

October 11th Weather Discussion

Yesterdays trivia question
True or false: A tornado that forms over water is called a Waterdevil.?

Answer was false..
The cool before the cold!
Cool shot #1 is starting to filter into the region. Today for the most part will be a partly to mostly sunny day though over the northeast they may see some isolated showers or snowshowers in the Mountains. However, its going to be cooler for the most part as well. Across I-95 it should move into that region on monday. This air will actually feel warm to whats ahead "_
Temperatures will generally be in the lower 40s to lower 50s from Maine down thru interior NY. In SNE and points south and east..low to mid 60s and to the south of PA ..upper 60s to lower 70s...

The high october 10th at KABE was 63 degrees

October 10th Weather Discussion

October 10th Weather Discussion

Yesterdays Trivia Question

What kills more people every year weather wise?
Answer: Floods

Cooler Air Is On The Move...

Cold front is advancing towards the region. Out ahead of this cold front will be off and on showers and times of steadier rains..mainly until about noon time. There after I think the clouds should start to break..But one has to wonder with the cold front moving thru whether or not the temperatures will start to drop thru out the course of the day? I think there is a 50/50 shot at this happening.
Otherwise temperatures will generally be in the upper 40s to upper 50s across the state of maine to the upper 50s to lower 60s across the interior of the NE. SNE down thru SE PA temps will be in the mid to upper 60s. South of PA upper 60s to mid 70s.
October 9th high temp at KABE was 65 degrees.. Well shy of the forecasted 72 degrees meaning it was an EPIC FAILURE ...

Todays trivia question..
True or false: A tornado that forms over water is called a Waterdevil.?

October 9th Weather Discussion

October 9th Weather Discussion

Yesterdays Trivia Question:

For golf-ball sized hail, a storms updraft must be?

Answer: 70 MPH

Relaxation equals warmer weather but wet as well!

Today will indeed be a warmer day across the area and in some cases could be pretty much above normal as a ridge to the south attempts to build into the region. This is allowing a warm front to move thru the area..but this warm front will be followed by a cold front. This will bring clouds to the region and rain along with the chance of some isolated thunderstorms.
Now to the temperatures.. Across Maine and NNE and interior NY..Temps will only be in the lower 50s to the lower 60s. Travel southwards though towards SNE and into interior Pa and temps will raise to the mid to upper 60s. Travel further south and east in PA and temps will be in the lower 70s. Get south of PA and then we are looking at the upper 70s to mid 80s. So south of PA definitely more like a summer day while into East central borderline SE pa more like your typical spring day but then further to the north it stays on the cool side.
Todays trivia Question

What kills more people every year weather wise?
High temp @ KABE was 65 degrees for October 8th..

October 8th Weather Discussion

October 8th Weather Discussion

Chillier Weather With Sunny Skies!

Yesterdays trivia question:

Cold air is heavier than warm air? True or False?
Answer is : True

Today is going to be a mostly sunny and pleasant day across the region. However..as the day progresses clouds will start to increase in the late afternoon early evening hours with the possibility of showers developing in the evening. Best chance west. However, I feel that any steady rainfall will probably hold off until the overnight period with the advancing of a warm front towards the area.
Temperatures look to be generally in the 50s to lower 60s across the northern interior regions into Maine. Mid to upper 60s elsewheres from Pa & points north. To the south of PA temperatures will mainly be in the low to mid 70s. Enjoy the beautiful weather today as rainfall is on the way!

October 7th high temperature @ KABE was 66 degrees

Todays trivia question
For golf-ball sized hail, a storms updraft must be?

Southeast Rainfall the next several days!

Two systems are going to be effecting the southeast over the next several days. The first system will be an advancing cold front that will tap into an abundant amount of gulf of mexico moisture. Rainfall from this cold front and waves of low pressure that ripple along it should start to move into the area in the next 24 hours. Then the next system is a low pressure that will develop over the southeast around GA. This should be over the weekend around Saturday. This low pressure will then move off to the ENE and finally the rain should start to clear out sometime late on the weekend..Sunday late afternoon or early evening. Western areas however should start to taper off on saturday. Alot of heavy rains look to fall across the region..particularly across the western regions. I am expecting numerous flash flood watches and warnings across that area..

Oct 8-9th Rainfall in the Mid Atlantic/ Northeast

A warm front will be approaching the region thursday night. This warm front will move thru the area and be followed up on friday with a cold front. A S/W along the front will also move to the northeast across ohio and into the state of Pa. Precipitable water content looks to be in the 1-2 inch range..The heaviest of which rains will be further to the west. There is the possibility of thunderstorms with some slightly warmer air out ahead of the cold front. Although dewpoints will be relatively low ..the cooler air aloft and the warmer air at the surface might spark off some stronger storms.

A Look At Oct 12-14 2009

Let me start this off by saying at the moment I am not taking any model solution as the correct solution for this time period. This storm system is going to be dependant on several factors. What we are watching is pieces of energy that will be dropping down out of Canada into the midwest.
How far this system is able to dig to the south will be dependant on how far south the first cold front gets that passes thru the region on Friday night! How far south this cold front progresses will depend on how strong the first push of colder air is behind the cold front. Now, its a given that cold air is denser and far heavier then warm air. This enables the colder air to sink further to the south. So the timing of this colder air becomes important and how far south this cold front proceeds because that then will act as the boundary between the colder air and the warmer air.
Currently, the energy is in a sparse data region and thus is the reason that I am not taking any model depiction as the actual solution. Once the energy gets in better sounding area we should be able to start to get a better picture as far as how far south this energy will dig.
Meanwhile, looking at the teleconnections from the latest guidance...I am only going to post the 12 Z ECM because the 12 Z GFS is also quite similar with what the teleconnections are.
Above is the PNA & the EPO..As you can see at this time frame the PNA is quite positive while the EPO is also negative. This tells me that, if these connections are correct then there should be a bigger ridge in the west and a deeper trough along the east. This tells me that the cold front should be able to progress further to the south and the cold air should be stronger. The NAO is also negative -neutral at this time period. The AO is also negative...
The above combination of teleconnections tells me that this cold air is going to be quite strong for this time of the year and with the denseness of it should be able to push quite far to the south which should allow this boundary to stall further to the south. This also tells me that this system should be more suppressed as it develops. At the current thinking..the energy that dives south out of Canada and the more suppressed solution the transfer of energy potentially could occur off the Delmarva coast and then proceed from there to move off to the ENE or NE.
Again, the above is based on what the teleconnections actually would suggest and is highly dependent on how far south the cold front makes it before it stalls and becomes the boundary.
Exciting times ahead & one thing I am becoming certain on here is that some areas north of 40 N will pick up there first snowfall of the season.

Pattern Update for Oct 7th to Oct 13th .

Pattern Update for Oct 7th to Oct 13th .

First Arctic Air Blast of the Season On its Way!

The early part of this outlook will actually start out on the seasonal to perhaps slightly above seasonal. However do not get use to it. Today a cold front will be making its way across the region providing windy and rainy conditions along the mid atlantic into the Northeast. This cold front and upper level low will move out of the region and on thursday a ridge will attempt to move into the area. This ridge of high pressure will be in control of the weather thru about Friday. Late friday night/ early saturday this area of high pressure will start to move off to the east and away from the coast as a powerful cold front approaches the region with an area of low pressure along the front. This will likely provide another round of rainfall from Friday into early saturday morning. Meanwhile, another area of low pressure looks to develop over the Southeast later on saturday evening and that starts to head NE up the coast and could provide the southern Mid Atlantic with some rainfall on Sunday. This low pressure though will not be able to ride up the coast though as the cold air that is pressing south and east will shunt this storm system off to the south and the east
Now this is where it starts to get fun Another area of low pressure or piece of energy will be diving down thru the midwest. While at the same time the leading edge of the cold air is working its way towards the region. Depending on how much this energy digs will determine how soon the cold air is able to work into the region and then also will determine how far south this energy will be able to dig. The stronger the push of cold air ..the more this piece of energy will be able to dig. This energy then looks to transfer its energy to a low that develops somewhere off or along the east coast. Again this is all going to be dependent on just how much digging this piece of energy can do and how strong the push of cold air is. The air that is coming in with this system will be the coldest air of the fall season so far. Matter of fact this air will be more similar to an Arctic Air mass that you would get in winter time.
So to sum things up..Early in this period we will be looking at seasonal to perhaps slightly above normal temps but towards the middle and ending and beyond as well...temperatures will be below normal and could end up much below normal! How long will this cold air last is the question? We will cover that in the next update!

October 7th Weather Discussion

Yesterdays trivia question..

Which type of cloud produces lightning?
Answer..Cumulonimbus
October 6th Day time high @ KABE was 65

October 7th Weather Discussion

A Wild Weather Day On Tap!
Today certainly will be a wild day..Especially the early part (overnight) into the early morning! Today will be a mostly cloudy day and showers along with the potential for thunderstorms thru out the early morning hours across the region. Lighter rainfall to the south and heavier rains to the north where it will be more concentrated due to an Upper Level Low moving across the region and a cold front crossing the region early in the day. Today also will be a very windy day once the front swings thru with winds gusting as high as 45 MPH...
Temperatures wise is going to be like a roller coaster as the early part of the day will start off on the mild side..once the cold front goes thru and the winds start to pick up the temperatures should essentially stay steady or start to fall slowly thru the afternoon. Highs will only be in the 40s and 50s across Maine to the 50s to low 60s across the interior regions of the northeast to the mid to upper 60s elsewhere..except south of PA temps will be in the 70s.
Todays Trivia Question

Cold air is heavier than warm air? True or False?

Rainfall & Windy Conditions October 7-8 2009

An upper level low over the Mississippi Valley will continue to move off to the North/Northeast and will be located over the Great lakes region tonight. This upper level low then will continue to move off to the east and be over New England during the day on wednesday. This will then cause a cold front to move across the area on wednesday! Rainfall will break out ahead of the front starting sometime after midnight and should pretty much clear out of the area by around noon time across the southern regions. Leaving in its passage and wake some strong gusty winds. Do to the strong gusty winds the NWS has issued a wind advisory for parts of the region for winds as high as 45 MPH..So overall later tonight into tomorrow is going to end up being quite nasty. Its quite possible with any stronger winds that mix down to the surface that there could end up being wind damage. So as a precaution to this ..people might want to make sure that any loose items are tied down...

October 6th Weather Discussion

October 6th Weather Discussion

Chilly nights & Pleasant days!

Yesterdays Trivia Question

Which type of cloud is highest in the atmosphere?

The answer: Cirrus Clouds

The weather today is basically going to be very pleasant across the region. Sunshine will be the primary dominant weather factor of the day. The only exception to this might be across the northern part of Maine where some showers could still be possible. Otherwise enjoy the weather today!
Temps across the region will be in the lower 50s to lower 60s across Maine and northern NNE to the mid and upper 60s to near 70 across the rest of the region. South of PA mid 60s to mid 70s!

High temperature @ KABE for Oct 5th was 64 degrees

Todays trivia question..
Which type of cloud produces lightning?

Midwest Pattern Update For Oct 7-14th

An upper level low situated over the Great Lakes on Wednesday will generally keep showers across the area thru the day on wednesday across the great lakes region and into ohio. By thursday , low pressure will be coming out of the Rockies region following along a stationary boundary. This low pressure area should generally track off to the northeast and as it does so will pull a cold front thru the region. Heavy rain is possible with this S/W and attending cold front across the ohio valley region and parts of the midwest from thursday thru friday. The cold front should clear the region by saturday. There after another S/W looks to come out of the rockies in the later part of the weekend while at the same time a developing low pressure will be forming in the southeast. These two S/Ws could bring more rainfall into  the Great Lakes region in the sunday to tuesday time frame. 

Probably the biggest weather story though will be the colder air across the  region behind each of the cold fronts. Early in the period temperatures look to be in the 40s and the 50s . By the start of the weekend across the northern areas & western areas of the midwest high temperatures will be dropping into the 30s and perhaps even some 20s across the region while further to the west 40s and 50s . Out ahead of the cold front temperatures on Friday across Ohio could get into the 60s. Once the cold front moves thru Ohio ..temperatures across the midwest will generally be in the 30s to the 50s. 

So the main story of the week will be the cold air that will be coming in across the region. 

Southeast Weather Pattern Update For Oct 7-14th

The most recent rainfall is starting to move out of the area with rain currently falling along the Southeast coast and across Florida. So what is next on the weather radar?

The next cold front and associated S/W looks to be moving across the southeast in the tuesday to wednesday time frame and should be thru the southeast by thursday.  This front will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms across the regiom. Any showers and storms should clear out of the region by thursday as the front pushes across the region.

Thereafter, another cold front looks to cross the region in the friday to saturday region and then this front looks to stall across the region. This front will be responsible for producing more showers and thunderstorms across the region.

Sunday to monday time frame ..guidance wants to develop a wave of low pressure over the tennessee valley. And perhaps a coastal low over the carolinas. These two low pressure areas will create a pretty wet scenario across the southeast from sunday thru tuesday. 

Temperatures thru the period look to be generally in the 70s with 80s covering the far southern areas around Florida. Over the weekend temperatures look to pretty much cool down thru most of the south with temperatures perhaps falling into the 60s for daytime highs. Florida basically thru the period should stay on the warm side with highs in the 80s.

Oct 5th Daily Weather Discussion

Oct 5th Weather Discussion

Yesterdays Trivia Question

True or false: Tornadoes do not form in temperatures lower than 50 degrees Fahrenheit

The answer was: False

Cooler Weather Today...

Today is going to be mainly a sunny day across the southern half of the viewing area and a partly to mostly cloudy day across the northern and western areas from about NY on north into the northeast. There will also be a continued chance for showers across that region as well. Otherwise the rest of the region will be pretty much enjoying the sun...
Temperatures look to be generally in the lower 50s to lower 60s across the regions that are expecting the more cloudy conditions to the mid-upper 60s elsewheres. From about Philadelphia and points south around 70 to the mid 70s the further south that you go.

October 4th high temp @ KABE was 71

Todays Trivia question..
Which type of cloud is highest in the atmosphere?

Southeast Rainfall Oct 3-5th & beyond!

A wave of low pressure will be developing in the GOM along a cold front that leads to the main low which is over wisconsin. The low over wisconsin will head into the great lakes pulling this wave of low pressure along with a cold front across the region. Rainfall will start across the western areas in the next 24 hours and then work its way to the east. Once again, heavy rains are possible across the area...