August 1st Weather Discussion
The heat is back on track!
High temperature July 31st @ KABE was 84 degrees.
On to the weather! Today is going to be a quiet day across the region with times of sun and clouds but for the most part areas will have mostly sunny skies. I am not expecting any diurnally driven showers or thunderstorms. So all and all today will be a lovely day to go for a walk, have a picnic or go swimming at your favorite beach, lake or pool.
Temperatures will range from lower 70s to lower 80s across the state of Maine to 80-90 elsewhere across the northeast from Pa and north. To the south of PA temperatures will generally be 80-90 though i would not be surprised to see some locations top 90 degrees.
Wish I had more to talk about but as i said a very quiet day is in store for the region!
Friday, July 31, 2009
First Edition Of Midwest Weather!
My outlook for Friday/Friday night:
From Jim Sullivan
Another S/W will pinwheel around the large upper low sitting over Canada. With a high pressure sitting over Texas and a front along the Gulf coast moisture return northward will definitely be limited. The area should have no problem heating into the 80s and 90s ahead of the front, but dew points will only be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. This will lead to high LCLs which will limit instability some. MLCAPEs down over SW KS and western OK ahead of the front could get up to 1500-2000 j/kg, however farther north where moisture will be limited instability will be rather weak, with 750 to locally up to 1500 j/kg of MLCAPE. However, with a front moving in and the area being on the nose of a decent jet streak moving in do believe scattered storms will break out along and just ahead of the front.
With weak low level shear, high LCLs and rather dry boundary layer do not think tornadoes will be a threat at all Friday across the region. Lapse rates will be somewhat steep, especially farther north and the mid levels will be fairly dry so there will definitely be a large hail and damaging wind threat with any stronger updrafts. However, instability is somewhat limited so severe storms will be somewhat isolated in nature, so will only go with 15% wind and hail probs. Am not expecting tornadoes across the region tomorrow.
Due to a minimal risk of tornadoes no map was made.
Thursday, July 30, 2009
July 31st Weather Discussion Heat takes a seat-Humidity still marching to the same beat!
July 31st Weather Discussion
Heat takes a seat-Humidity still marching to the same beat!
Today the heat will take a break across most of the region as temperatures will be somewhat cooler. However dewpoints will still continue to be quite high between 65-75. As far as the weather...showers and thunderstorms are going to be across the region with the potential for not only severe storms but also some very heavy rains. Along the lines of 1-2 inches and even more with training of storms. However...before that happens I believe most areas will get off to a partly sunny sky before the clouds move in and thru the day there could be breaks of sun thru the thin clouds. As mentioned temperatures are held back some because of the cloud cover and rain. However, if we get more sun then what current thinking is then there will be nothing to prevent the temperatures from going higher then forecasted.
So as far as temperatures are concerned, from Maine to interior central and northern new england down into central and western PA, temperatures will be between 70-80 degrees. Across southern new england into SE PA and NJ, along the coast, low to mid 80s.To the south of PA on the eastern side of the states, upper 80s to lower 90s on the western side temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s. So keep an eye to the sky when you are outside today and as always stay safe!
July 30th high temperature @ KABE was 84
Heat takes a seat-Humidity still marching to the same beat!
Today the heat will take a break across most of the region as temperatures will be somewhat cooler. However dewpoints will still continue to be quite high between 65-75. As far as the weather...showers and thunderstorms are going to be across the region with the potential for not only severe storms but also some very heavy rains. Along the lines of 1-2 inches and even more with training of storms. However...before that happens I believe most areas will get off to a partly sunny sky before the clouds move in and thru the day there could be breaks of sun thru the thin clouds. As mentioned temperatures are held back some because of the cloud cover and rain. However, if we get more sun then what current thinking is then there will be nothing to prevent the temperatures from going higher then forecasted.
So as far as temperatures are concerned, from Maine to interior central and northern new england down into central and western PA, temperatures will be between 70-80 degrees. Across southern new england into SE PA and NJ, along the coast, low to mid 80s.To the south of PA on the eastern side of the states, upper 80s to lower 90s on the western side temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s. So keep an eye to the sky when you are outside today and as always stay safe!
July 30th high temperature @ KABE was 84
Pattern Update covering thru the first week of August 2009...
Pattern Update covering thru the first week of August 2009...
While i do agree with weather in high definition in regards to the WCAR moving east...I believe this is going to be a temporary move. The WCAR will actually become the CAR...Meanwhile , toughing that has been over the western Great Lakes will move slightly to the east over the eastern Great Lakes However..later in the period this troughing looks to lift up into more of CANADA which will at first allow the flow to become more zonal. and there after expect the ridge that has been in the centtral part of the country to progress to the eastern part of the country as troughing comes on to the west coast. In other words, expecting the high pressure that has been providing the hot weather in Seattle etc, to move to the east and then essentially join forces with the CAR...
The reason i do not believe that we will have any sustained troughing effecting the east is because
A. The EPO never goes actually negative.. It actually goes about as low as 0.5. Applying the same standard as the NAO when its in neutral which is -0.5 to +0.5, this would mean that the EPO actually stays in neutral territory, which makes sense when looking at the NAO which also never leaves the neutral zone..
So essentially I am expecting seasonal to slightly above seasonal departures to continue along the east coast alon with the humidity factor..though that will lessen up about midway into the period. Once the trough that has been centered over the Western Great Lakes moves to the east..then the areas on the Western Side of the Northeast would experience more cooler temperatures because of being closer to the mean trough. However, once the trough lifts into central Canada..the region as a whole (Northeast) should start to once again step back into the warmer side of summer weather.
July 31 Severe Weather Potential Zone
A cold front will be approaching the region by about 18 Z tomorrow. This cold front will be coming into a very warm and humid air mass. Temperatures will be from 80-90 degrees and the dew points will be once again in the range of 65-75. We will have ample shear in the mid levels of at least 35-40 knots and ample shear in the lower levels along the range of 35-50 knots. A mid level impulse will develop along this cold front as well..at the same time another S/W will move across Michigan into SE Canada and then eastwards into the State of Maine.
What we have going for us...
Western Central Atlantic Ridge (WCAR)
Mean trough positioned over the Great Lakes
Warm & Humid Air Mass
Dewpoints of 65-75
Shear of 35-50 knots
CAPE of 1000-2000
LI of -2 to -4
What could go wrong? Cloud cover could cause the area to not destabalize as quick. Although, it seems like this season cloud cover has not made much of a difference. The more sunshine we have the better the destablization. System could be to "water loaded" which would keep the storms from becoming to strong.
Any storms will contain very heavy rainfall. Some of the region already has flash flood watches in place with Precipitable Water being along the range of 1-2 inches. Besides very heavy rainfall, damaging winds in excess of 60 mph and the potential for a few tornados as well. Hail is possible as well..however..expect more wind damage reports then hail.
With all the above in mind here is the map..
Wednesday, July 29, 2009
July 30th Weather Discussion Cooler in Maine..Elsewhere the heat remains!
July 30th Weather Discussion
Cooler in Maine..Elsewhere the heat remains!
Cooler weather will come back to the state of Maine for today as they will be mainly under cloudy skies with rain from the mid level impulse that came thru the mid atlantic yesterday. This chance of rain may extend down into Southern New England as well. Else where across the region..I think most areas should be under partly sunny skies with only the slightest chance of a diurnally driven shower or thunderstorm.
The heat and humidity will remain across vast majority of the region. So, despite the fact that a cold front has come into the vicinity its really NOT going to make a difference when it comes to the temperatures.
Speaking of the temperatures..Across the state of Maine it will be 70-80 degrees.. Thru the rest of southern new england and northern and central new england low to mid 80s. East central Pa into SE PA all of Nj..temperatures will be in the 85-90 range. Central Pa mid to upper 80s..Western Pa into the SW corner of NY 70-80. To the south of Pa..upper 80s and lower 90s. So, with sunshine thru most of the area should be a very nice day to get out to the swimming pools and take advantage of the hot weather!
July 29th Daytime high temperature @ KABE was 83 degrees...
Cooler in Maine..Elsewhere the heat remains!
Cooler weather will come back to the state of Maine for today as they will be mainly under cloudy skies with rain from the mid level impulse that came thru the mid atlantic yesterday. This chance of rain may extend down into Southern New England as well. Else where across the region..I think most areas should be under partly sunny skies with only the slightest chance of a diurnally driven shower or thunderstorm.
The heat and humidity will remain across vast majority of the region. So, despite the fact that a cold front has come into the vicinity its really NOT going to make a difference when it comes to the temperatures.
Speaking of the temperatures..Across the state of Maine it will be 70-80 degrees.. Thru the rest of southern new england and northern and central new england low to mid 80s. East central Pa into SE PA all of Nj..temperatures will be in the 85-90 range. Central Pa mid to upper 80s..Western Pa into the SW corner of NY 70-80. To the south of Pa..upper 80s and lower 90s. So, with sunshine thru most of the area should be a very nice day to get out to the swimming pools and take advantage of the hot weather!
July 29th Daytime high temperature @ KABE was 83 degrees...
Rainfall Potential July 29-30, 2009
A cold front will be advancing towards the region. This cold front will be approaching Ohio by about 2 PM tomorrow afternoon and be close to the region on thursday. This cold front will then stall out across the region. Meanwhile the mean trough is going to be situated over the Great Lakes region. Due to the circulation around this low pressure..mid level impulses will continue to rotate across the region. One such impulse with be attending the cold front and another impulse will develop around or about washington DC area. This impulse will bring the potential for heavier rains tomorrow evening. Before the heavy rains move in to the region..we will be dealing with thunderstorms that will break out ahead of and also along the advancing cold front. Temperatures across the area tomorrow will be in the 80-90 degree range and dewpoints will be running high with them in the mid 60s to the lower 70s range...
Tuesday, July 28, 2009
July 29th Weather Discussion Heat continues in the North!
July 29th Weather Discussion
Heat continues in the North!
Skies are going to range between partly to mostly cloudy across the southern viewing area to partly cloudy to partly sunny across the Northeast, in particularly Central New England into Maine. However, an advancing cold front towards the region, along with the WCAR, and the mean trough over the Great Lakes is going to spell the potential for severe thunderstorms across the vast majority of the region. Also along with these thunderstorms will be some very heavy rain possible. Would not be surprised to see Flash Flood Watches and Warnings go up with these storms as the air mass is very soupy!
Daytime high temperatures will be 80-85 across the state of Maine..
Along the coast from Philadelphia up NE to Concord NH..temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s.
Further inland across the rest of the region 80-85
Western Pa into SW NY temperatures in the 75-80 range...
Across East central PA and into South Central PA low to mid 80s
To the south of PA ..temperatures in the 80-90 range..warmer towards the east coast :)
Dewpoints are going to be extremely high across the region once again from 65-70. So its going to be quite warm and muggy even if you do not get full sunshine.
The high temperature @ KABE July 28th was 87 degrees!
Heat continues in the North!
Skies are going to range between partly to mostly cloudy across the southern viewing area to partly cloudy to partly sunny across the Northeast, in particularly Central New England into Maine. However, an advancing cold front towards the region, along with the WCAR, and the mean trough over the Great Lakes is going to spell the potential for severe thunderstorms across the vast majority of the region. Also along with these thunderstorms will be some very heavy rain possible. Would not be surprised to see Flash Flood Watches and Warnings go up with these storms as the air mass is very soupy!
Daytime high temperatures will be 80-85 across the state of Maine..
Along the coast from Philadelphia up NE to Concord NH..temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s.
Further inland across the rest of the region 80-85
Western Pa into SW NY temperatures in the 75-80 range...
Across East central PA and into South Central PA low to mid 80s
To the south of PA ..temperatures in the 80-90 range..warmer towards the east coast :)
Dewpoints are going to be extremely high across the region once again from 65-70. So its going to be quite warm and muggy even if you do not get full sunshine.
The high temperature @ KABE July 28th was 87 degrees!
Pictures of the storm that was Tornado warned in NJ 7/26/09
The following pictures come courtesy of Daniel Uhler
Severe Weather Potential July 29th 2009
A cold front will be advancing towards the region. This cold front will be approaching Ohio by about 2 PM tomorrow afternoon and be close to the region on thursday. This cold front will then stall out across the region. Meanwhile the mean trough is going to be situated over the Great Lakes region. Due to the circulation around this low pressure..mid level impulses will continue to rotate across the region. One such impulse with be attending the cold front and another impulse will develop around or about washington DC area. This impulse will bring the potential for heavier rains tomorrow evening. Before the heavy rains move in to the region..we will be dealing with thunderstorms that will break out ahead of and also along the advancing cold front. Temperatures across the area tomorrow will be in the 80-90 degree range and dewpoints will be running high with them in the mid 60s to the lower 70s range...
Looking at the severe weather Parameters in place for tomorrow...
CAPE VALUES will be in the range of 1000-2500 depending on your location.
LI (Lift Index) will be in the range of -2 to - 6 depending on your location
0-6 KM shear will be between 35-45 Knots
Helicity will be between 175 and 250 depending on location....
With all the above mentioned the map above has been created.The main severe weather threats will be winds 60 MPH or greater winds..potential for hail and the potential for an isolated tornado or two as well.
Monday, July 27, 2009
July 28th Weather Discussion The Heat Presses Northwards
July 28th Weather Discussion
The Heat Presses Northwards
Now there is something that you have not heard too much this summer season. The year without a summer to the north takes a step into the realm of summer time weather. Theres only one way to describe the weather today- warm, hot and humid! Majority of the region is going to wake up and remain under partly to mostly sunny skies! So in simple terms this means its going to be hot!
Of course, with the mean trough still over the Great Lakes and the Western Central Atlantic Car in place...and a frontal boundary in place as well stalled across the region..There is the chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms. Of course, with the heat..You just might be wishing for these storms to take place.
Temperatures across the region ..Heres the breakdown
To the north in the state of Maine 80-85 degrees
The rest of the region from PA northwards mid 80s to lower 90s...
To the south of PA... upper 80s to lower 90s...
So all and all it is going to be pretty hot across the region...
Keep that bottle of water handy!
July 27th high temperature @ KABE was 85 degrees
The Heat Presses Northwards
Now there is something that you have not heard too much this summer season. The year without a summer to the north takes a step into the realm of summer time weather. Theres only one way to describe the weather today- warm, hot and humid! Majority of the region is going to wake up and remain under partly to mostly sunny skies! So in simple terms this means its going to be hot!
Of course, with the mean trough still over the Great Lakes and the Western Central Atlantic Car in place...and a frontal boundary in place as well stalled across the region..There is the chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms. Of course, with the heat..You just might be wishing for these storms to take place.
Temperatures across the region ..Heres the breakdown
To the north in the state of Maine 80-85 degrees
The rest of the region from PA northwards mid 80s to lower 90s...
To the south of PA... upper 80s to lower 90s...
So all and all it is going to be pretty hot across the region...
Keep that bottle of water handy!
July 27th high temperature @ KABE was 85 degrees
July 28th Severe Weather Outlook
LIFT Index -2 to -6
CAPE Values 1000-3000 depending on location..
Lapse Rates 5.0-5.5
Trigger... Western Central Atlantic Ridge and Mean trough over the great lakes being responsible for mid level impulses to move across the region.
Frontal boundary stalled across the region will act to enhance thunderstorm potential...
Temperatures 85-95 degrees...
Severe weather threats will mainly consist of strong winds and perhaps some hail..
Pattern update as of 5:10 PM the 27th of July.
Pattern update as of 5:10 PM the 27th of July...
At least the next ten days I am expecting the Central Atlantic Ridge to continue to influence the weather. While at the same time the mean trough will continue to keep residence from the Great Lakes to Hudson Bay in Canada.
Essentially, if you are along the east coast or slightly inland you will be the areas to continue to feel the effects of the CAR. Weather will continue to be of the summer like type pattern with temperatures seasonal to slightly above normal and diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. Areas closer to the mean trough will be more succeptible to the cooler then normal temperatures.
Now after this...models are hinting that some of the cooler air could make more inroads into the area..and the TZT could be re established. Main model showing this is the GFS which brings in a negative EPO ridge which once again establishes the trough along the east coast.
At this point and time I believe the GFS is suffering from feedback errors. Instead i think what is more likely is that the mean trough will stay over the Great Lakes region..however..might move a bit to the east in about 10 days..give or take a day...
The teleconnections do not show the EPO going majorly negative but rather to about 0.5...this is borderline neutral before expected to go back to neutral once again...
The PNA while positive now is expected to go neutral as well and the NAO is neutral thru the period. So to me this tells me that essentially things should stay status quo but with the EPO shifting slightly towards the negative ..the central ridge will probably shift to the west some and allow the mean trough to somewhat shift east....
At least the next ten days I am expecting the Central Atlantic Ridge to continue to influence the weather. While at the same time the mean trough will continue to keep residence from the Great Lakes to Hudson Bay in Canada.
Essentially, if you are along the east coast or slightly inland you will be the areas to continue to feel the effects of the CAR. Weather will continue to be of the summer like type pattern with temperatures seasonal to slightly above normal and diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. Areas closer to the mean trough will be more succeptible to the cooler then normal temperatures.
Now after this...models are hinting that some of the cooler air could make more inroads into the area..and the TZT could be re established. Main model showing this is the GFS which brings in a negative EPO ridge which once again establishes the trough along the east coast.
At this point and time I believe the GFS is suffering from feedback errors. Instead i think what is more likely is that the mean trough will stay over the Great Lakes region..however..might move a bit to the east in about 10 days..give or take a day...
The teleconnections do not show the EPO going majorly negative but rather to about 0.5...this is borderline neutral before expected to go back to neutral once again...
The PNA while positive now is expected to go neutral as well and the NAO is neutral thru the period. So to me this tells me that essentially things should stay status quo but with the EPO shifting slightly towards the negative ..the central ridge will probably shift to the west some and allow the mean trough to somewhat shift east....
July 27th Weather Discussion The heat is still on!
July 27th Weather Discussion
The heat is still on!
Well, the vast majority of the region has not been experiencing summer like weather in the northeast..For the most part the Western Central Atlantic Ridge and the shifting of the mean trough to the west over the Great Lakes has changed that. Of course the true heat has yet been able to penetrate completely north into the state of Maine and that looks to continue to , well. continue to be the case..
Today, I think most regions except for the far northern regions should wake up to partly sunny skies. So while your local forecast is probably calling for mostly cloudy conditions..Satellite tells a different story. Thats what I like to do here at R.W.S is use latest observations to determine the next days weather. It relies less on models and more on the here and now.
Anyways, partly sunny skies should be in the cards for tomorrow across the vast majority of the region. Of course, with the day time heating and the mean trough spinning over the lakes, a cold front approaching the region and then weakening..No air temperature difference in the cards is the result of that...clouds could overspread the region from time to time and pop up some showers and thunderstorms. The best chance of this is going to be southern New England and into the Northeast. Though further south..the dissipating cold front will act as a boundary with the daytime heat to provide even this region the chance of storms..Some, yes could be severe...
Temperatures across the region...70-80 across the state of maine...70-80 across extreme NW PA and Sw NY..across the rest of the region looks like low to upper 80s will be the call. To the south of PA..upper 80s to near 90 once again.
So as you can see the heat is definitely on in most of the region and summer weather is definitely here and looks to stay for the forseeable future! Once again, humidity will also be a factor as well with dewpoints in the mid 60s to around 70..So the muggy weather will continue...
High temperature for the 26th at KABE was 83 degrees
The heat is still on!
Well, the vast majority of the region has not been experiencing summer like weather in the northeast..For the most part the Western Central Atlantic Ridge and the shifting of the mean trough to the west over the Great Lakes has changed that. Of course the true heat has yet been able to penetrate completely north into the state of Maine and that looks to continue to , well. continue to be the case..
Today, I think most regions except for the far northern regions should wake up to partly sunny skies. So while your local forecast is probably calling for mostly cloudy conditions..Satellite tells a different story. Thats what I like to do here at R.W.S is use latest observations to determine the next days weather. It relies less on models and more on the here and now.
Anyways, partly sunny skies should be in the cards for tomorrow across the vast majority of the region. Of course, with the day time heating and the mean trough spinning over the lakes, a cold front approaching the region and then weakening..No air temperature difference in the cards is the result of that...clouds could overspread the region from time to time and pop up some showers and thunderstorms. The best chance of this is going to be southern New England and into the Northeast. Though further south..the dissipating cold front will act as a boundary with the daytime heat to provide even this region the chance of storms..Some, yes could be severe...
Temperatures across the region...70-80 across the state of maine...70-80 across extreme NW PA and Sw NY..across the rest of the region looks like low to upper 80s will be the call. To the south of PA..upper 80s to near 90 once again.
So as you can see the heat is definitely on in most of the region and summer weather is definitely here and looks to stay for the forseeable future! Once again, humidity will also be a factor as well with dewpoints in the mid 60s to around 70..So the muggy weather will continue...
High temperature for the 26th at KABE was 83 degrees
Sunday, July 26, 2009
July 27th Severe Potential Zone
CAPE anywhere from 1000-3000 depending on location
LI index -2 to -6
Lapse rates 6.0-6.5
0-6 KM shear 30 Knots +
Temperatures 80-90 degrees
Trigger Western Central Ridge and cold front advancing across region..though this cold front will dissipate. Do not expect the reports to be anywhere near as active as today..but none the less with daytime heating and decent Parameters in place severe weather is quite possibile...
July 26th Weather Discussion The Heat is On!
July 26th Weather Discussion
The Heat is On!
Heat & Humidity, Heat & Humidity, that about sums up the weather for today! Of course with heat & humidity comes a couple other things. Sunshine, Thunderstorms! In a nutshell that is what we are going to be dealing with today anywhere along the eastern side of the east coast! Its going to be warm...its going to be humid. Dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s. I guess you could call it downright soupy, sticky, muggy or anyother word you can think of to describe-uncomfortable.
Lets move on to the temperatures.70-80 in the state of Maine...Further south into southern New England...low to mid 80s..Mid-upper 80s in SE PA and NJ into eastern PA..further west temperatures will be in the lower 80s..To the south of PA , temperatures will be in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Interior NY upper 70s to lower 80s...
On a side note..today could be an active severe weather day from SE PA up to NYC..so if you are out and about today,,two things to remember. Something to drink...and keep an eye to the sky and seek shelter if any severe weather happens your way!
July 25th High temperature @ KABE was 85...
Current temp as of this posting is 77 degrees...
The Heat is On!
Heat & Humidity, Heat & Humidity, that about sums up the weather for today! Of course with heat & humidity comes a couple other things. Sunshine, Thunderstorms! In a nutshell that is what we are going to be dealing with today anywhere along the eastern side of the east coast! Its going to be warm...its going to be humid. Dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s. I guess you could call it downright soupy, sticky, muggy or anyother word you can think of to describe-uncomfortable.
Lets move on to the temperatures.70-80 in the state of Maine...Further south into southern New England...low to mid 80s..Mid-upper 80s in SE PA and NJ into eastern PA..further west temperatures will be in the lower 80s..To the south of PA , temperatures will be in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Interior NY upper 70s to lower 80s...
On a side note..today could be an active severe weather day from SE PA up to NYC..so if you are out and about today,,two things to remember. Something to drink...and keep an eye to the sky and seek shelter if any severe weather happens your way!
July 25th High temperature @ KABE was 85...
Current temp as of this posting is 77 degrees...
Saturday, July 25, 2009
Late Night Thoughts on Severe Potential July 26th
One potential concern for tomorrow will be how much convective cloud cover debris will be left over from the activity that is ongoing now and will continue to move thru the region in the overnight. The way it appears at the moment..I believe most of the cloudiness should be out of the southern extent of the region by about 12Z tomorrow..though i would like to see it out before that point and time.
Things we have going for us...
We have a very sultry, moist, muggy air mass in place with dewpoints already at th 65-70 range across the southern areas.
Temperatures in the 80-90 range...
We have CAPE ranging, depending on your location, from 1000 to about 3000
We have Lift Index ranging from -2 to -6, again, depending on location..
We have Lapse Rates of 6.0-6.5
Shear of 35-45 Knots
Probably the most important aspect of the picture tomorrow is the cold front that will be approaching the region tomorrow night which will act as a trigger. Also being under the right entrance region of the upper level jet will enhance convective development.
Overall expecting the day to be pretty active with some cells capable of reaching supercell potential especially over SE PA into NYC. Large Hail. Damaging winds and will not rule out some isolated tornados.
July 25th Severe Potential Zone Updated
Sorry about the lateness, but been caught up in long range, medium range and just had the chance to look at the latest SREF (completed run) and felt the need to shift the severe zone potential to the east some...
Friday, July 24, 2009
July 25th Weather Discussion SE Ridge is coming into the picture :)
July 25th Weather Discussion
SE Ridge is coming into the picture :)
Well if you like summer weather..today is going to make you feel like you are at home, at least from Southern New England across to NY and southwards. The weather should be mainly sunny skies with an outside chance at a diurnally driven T storm or isolated shower across the east to a more concentrated chance of diurnally driven thunderstorms across the west..Southwest flow will rule the day and humidity will start to climb...
Temperatures we are looking at upper 60s to upper 70s across the state of Maine...from there it climbs.Interior NY upper 70s to mid 80s...Southern New England low to mid 80s to upper 80s near NYC..perhaps flirting with 90 degrees. To the south of there into PA and NJ ..mid 80s to lower 90s..across western PA..low to mid 80s. To the south of PA..HOT is the word with temps in the low to mid 90s. Once again with air quality alerts across the region and any outdoor activity please make sure you have something to drink on you at all times! Otherwise...enjoy the heat! Why not hit the pool?
July 24th High temperature @ KABE was 81 degrees
SE Ridge is coming into the picture :)
Well if you like summer weather..today is going to make you feel like you are at home, at least from Southern New England across to NY and southwards. The weather should be mainly sunny skies with an outside chance at a diurnally driven T storm or isolated shower across the east to a more concentrated chance of diurnally driven thunderstorms across the west..Southwest flow will rule the day and humidity will start to climb...
Temperatures we are looking at upper 60s to upper 70s across the state of Maine...from there it climbs.Interior NY upper 70s to mid 80s...Southern New England low to mid 80s to upper 80s near NYC..perhaps flirting with 90 degrees. To the south of there into PA and NJ ..mid 80s to lower 90s..across western PA..low to mid 80s. To the south of PA..HOT is the word with temps in the low to mid 90s. Once again with air quality alerts across the region and any outdoor activity please make sure you have something to drink on you at all times! Otherwise...enjoy the heat! Why not hit the pool?
July 24th High temperature @ KABE was 81 degrees
July 25th Severe Potential Day 1 Outlook
CAPE 1000-2500
LI -2 to -6
LAPSE Rates 6.5-7.0
0-6 KM Bulk shear at least 30 Knots..
Temperatures 70s, 80s...
Trigger Strong cold front...approaching the region
Updated Outlook for July 24th
Updated Day 1 Outlook. After viewing 00z guidance thought it was prudent to update the outlook. I like to get the outlooks whether they be original or updated out on the street before SPC come out with there outlooks.
Thursday, July 23, 2009
July 24th Weather Discussion The tale of two worlds!
July 24th Weather Discussion
The tale of two worlds!
Its going to be the tale of two different areas with the weather today. Parts of southern New England into the state of Maine are going to be dealing with rain today. This rain is still part of what was at one point invest 98..although invest 98 was really a hybrid storm made of remnant tropical waves and a upper air disturbance that formed off the carolina coast and moved parallel to the coast..
To the south of there I believe most of the region will be waking up to partly to mostly cloudy skies..though i would not rule out times where the sun can break thru. For the rest of us that are not dealing with the remnants of invest 98..we still will have our shot at showers and thunderstorms as a front moved thru overnight and will act as a boundary for the possibility of strong thunderstorms which could turn severe.
Temperature wise will be most coolest over the regions where they are experiencing the rain from former invest 98. Temperatures there will be in the mid 60s to the mid 70s. Interior NY 70-80. Southern New England upper 70s to lower 80s. Further to the south into Pa..Se PA into east central PA temperatures will be in the lower to middle 80s and will be the first in the series of days that will start to feel like summer has arrived. Further to the west into western PA..70-80 and to the south of PA/MD line mid to upper 80s to around 90! This heat is going to move NORTH over the next several days with humidity on a southerly flow!
High temperature July 23rd in KABE 78
The tale of two worlds!
Its going to be the tale of two different areas with the weather today. Parts of southern New England into the state of Maine are going to be dealing with rain today. This rain is still part of what was at one point invest 98..although invest 98 was really a hybrid storm made of remnant tropical waves and a upper air disturbance that formed off the carolina coast and moved parallel to the coast..
To the south of there I believe most of the region will be waking up to partly to mostly cloudy skies..though i would not rule out times where the sun can break thru. For the rest of us that are not dealing with the remnants of invest 98..we still will have our shot at showers and thunderstorms as a front moved thru overnight and will act as a boundary for the possibility of strong thunderstorms which could turn severe.
Temperature wise will be most coolest over the regions where they are experiencing the rain from former invest 98. Temperatures there will be in the mid 60s to the mid 70s. Interior NY 70-80. Southern New England upper 70s to lower 80s. Further to the south into Pa..Se PA into east central PA temperatures will be in the lower to middle 80s and will be the first in the series of days that will start to feel like summer has arrived. Further to the west into western PA..70-80 and to the south of PA/MD line mid to upper 80s to around 90! This heat is going to move NORTH over the next several days with humidity on a southerly flow!
High temperature July 23rd in KABE 78
Severe Potential July 24th 2009
CAPE LEVELS 1000-2000
LI -2 to -6
Mid Level Lapse rates 5.5-6.5 depending on your location...
TRIGGER..There will be a S/W that moves in from the WSW...
This will be the first day of what appears to be an active pattern shaping up..
Updated Rainfall Map For Coastal Low
Low pressure off the coast of VA will continue to lift off to the north and then to the north and east spreading rainfall into the area. Most of the heaviest rains should stay offshore as the center of the low passes to the east of the area..
Wednesday, July 22, 2009
July 23rd Weather Discussion Heat & Humidity = Clouds & Umbrella Weather!
July 23rd Weather Discussion
Heat & Humidity = Clouds & Umbrella Weather!
Todays weather is going to be influenced by two different systems ..One is a piece of energy lifting thru the ohio valley! This piece of energy was responsible for producing popcorn showers over parts of Pa yesterday. The other piece is a low pressure area off the Carolina Coast that will be moving up the eastern seaboard. So between the two systems..the region will be pretty much under cloudy skies. Its possible that some areas in the state of PA may actually break into some sunshine, but i believe that would be short lived. Along with the clouds come showers and thunderstorm potential. There is an area highlighted for severe potential ..please see that section...
Temperatures across the region ..70-80 across the state of Maine, upper 60s to upper 70s across the SNE coastal areas. Further inland 70-80. Eastern PA into SE PA into NJ upper 70s to lower 80s. Further to the west temperatures will be in the 70-80 range. To the south..upper 70s to the lower 80s. Despite the temperatures being held back today due to clouds and potential rainfall..dewpoints will be quite high and make the air feel "muggy"
July 22nd high temperature @ KABE was 82
Heat & Humidity = Clouds & Umbrella Weather!
Todays weather is going to be influenced by two different systems ..One is a piece of energy lifting thru the ohio valley! This piece of energy was responsible for producing popcorn showers over parts of Pa yesterday. The other piece is a low pressure area off the Carolina Coast that will be moving up the eastern seaboard. So between the two systems..the region will be pretty much under cloudy skies. Its possible that some areas in the state of PA may actually break into some sunshine, but i believe that would be short lived. Along with the clouds come showers and thunderstorm potential. There is an area highlighted for severe potential ..please see that section...
Temperatures across the region ..70-80 across the state of Maine, upper 60s to upper 70s across the SNE coastal areas. Further inland 70-80. Eastern PA into SE PA into NJ upper 70s to lower 80s. Further to the west temperatures will be in the 70-80 range. To the south..upper 70s to the lower 80s. Despite the temperatures being held back today due to clouds and potential rainfall..dewpoints will be quite high and make the air feel "muggy"
July 22nd high temperature @ KABE was 82
Tropical Storm on the way? R.W.S says No!
There has been alot of talk about a tropical storm brewing off of the Carolinas and moving up the coast. This statement is not anywhere even close to being accurate..as what we have is an upper level low in which, remnants of former tropical waves have converged together to form a developing low pressure system..
The above map is more or less based on the SREF...
The latest SREF when i looked at it was not all that impressed with rainfall totals even along the extreme east. This was the 15 Z run... and just glancing at the 21 Z run it is also not that impressive with rainfall totals from this event...
The 00z NAM has actually more or less come around to the SREF and what it has been showing since its 15 Z run. I did not look at it prior to this run, so can not say whether or not the SREF was different before 15 Z..
With that said.. when looking at the enhanced infrared satellite picture that the center appears to be quite the distance off shore moving at this point and time in a northerly direction..
The direction this low takes should keep the heaviest of the precipitation out over the open waters.
Tuesday, July 21, 2009
July 22nd Weather Discussion What happened to Summer?
July 22nd Weather Discussion
What happened to Summer?
KABE escaped the rain for the most part yesterday with only receiving .25 on the day. However..one thing we were not able to escape was the cooler temperatures. Yesterday high temperature only reached 68 degrees. Yes, that is about 16 degrees below normal.
So whats on tap for today? Well there is one low pressure moving out..while another gets set to move in. I think we can get some breaks in the sky in between systems when looking at the latest satellite. So today should be a partly to mostly cloudy day with showers and thunderstorms once again across the region. Most concentrated areas of rainfall will be NNE associated with the low pressure that went thru yesterday and then the western parts of the region with the approach of the next weather maker.
As far as temperatures are concerned..winds should switch to more out of the South. This should cause the temperatures to be warmer today then what they were yesterday. Mif 60s to lower 70s thru the state of Maine..low 70s to low 80s across the interior NE... Low to mid 80s from southern new england into central PA. Western PA temperatures will be 70-80. NJ, and south of PA/MD border low to mid 80s...All and all with the humidity increasing the chances for showers and thunderstorms increases as well.
What happened to Summer?
KABE escaped the rain for the most part yesterday with only receiving .25 on the day. However..one thing we were not able to escape was the cooler temperatures. Yesterday high temperature only reached 68 degrees. Yes, that is about 16 degrees below normal.
So whats on tap for today? Well there is one low pressure moving out..while another gets set to move in. I think we can get some breaks in the sky in between systems when looking at the latest satellite. So today should be a partly to mostly cloudy day with showers and thunderstorms once again across the region. Most concentrated areas of rainfall will be NNE associated with the low pressure that went thru yesterday and then the western parts of the region with the approach of the next weather maker.
As far as temperatures are concerned..winds should switch to more out of the South. This should cause the temperatures to be warmer today then what they were yesterday. Mif 60s to lower 70s thru the state of Maine..low 70s to low 80s across the interior NE... Low to mid 80s from southern new england into central PA. Western PA temperatures will be 70-80. NJ, and south of PA/MD border low to mid 80s...All and all with the humidity increasing the chances for showers and thunderstorms increases as well.
Severe Weather July 21st Potential
CAPE 500-1500 across the region..
Bulk Shear 800-350 level is 35-50 knots
LI -2 to -6 across the region
Lapse Rates 5.5- 6.5
Air loft in the 500 mb region cooling to -12 to -14 degrees celcius..
With low pressure developing along the stationary front and moving off towards the NE..this is going to serve as a trigger across the area to perhaps cause some thunderstorms to become severe! I am still not expecting a widespread outbreak but more isolated in nature. Main concern will be hail and heavy rain with any thunderstorms.
Monday, July 20, 2009
July 21st Weather Discussion Humidity increases & So does the Moisture!
July 21st Weather Discussion
Humidity increases & So does the Moisture!
Well, much as i been discussing in the temperature/pattern thread humidity is increasing across the coastal areas with dewpoints yesterday evening already in the 60-65 range. With an increase in humidity and dewpoints also comes an increase in moisture content in the air. Essentially what that means if any type of trigger comes along you can have showers and thunderstorms. Also with a flow coming from around the High Pressure in the Atlantic (CAR) this can also increase those chances of showers and thunderstorms. So that is what we will be dealing with today..The areas that will receive the most rain are areas along the coast and slightly inland. Please see my blog for rainfall totals or the appropiate thread if reading this in the forum. Also with the increase chance in showers there will be some isolated severe possibilities over PA/NJ...
Now..depending where you are I am not expecting this to be a completely rainfilled day. If you are along the coast or immediately inland you have the better chance of more substantiated rain fall. Further inland..skies will be partly to mostly cloudy for most of the day..however..there could be glimmers of sunshine here and there...Showers and thunderstorms are also possible but along the lighter variety.
Temperatures basically are going to be pretty much in the range of 70-80 from PA & points NE...South of PA about the same temperatures until you get south of Washington DC..then the lower 80s are more likely.
High temperature today July 20 @ KABE 83
Humidity increases & So does the Moisture!
Well, much as i been discussing in the temperature/pattern thread humidity is increasing across the coastal areas with dewpoints yesterday evening already in the 60-65 range. With an increase in humidity and dewpoints also comes an increase in moisture content in the air. Essentially what that means if any type of trigger comes along you can have showers and thunderstorms. Also with a flow coming from around the High Pressure in the Atlantic (CAR) this can also increase those chances of showers and thunderstorms. So that is what we will be dealing with today..The areas that will receive the most rain are areas along the coast and slightly inland. Please see my blog for rainfall totals or the appropiate thread if reading this in the forum. Also with the increase chance in showers there will be some isolated severe possibilities over PA/NJ...
Now..depending where you are I am not expecting this to be a completely rainfilled day. If you are along the coast or immediately inland you have the better chance of more substantiated rain fall. Further inland..skies will be partly to mostly cloudy for most of the day..however..there could be glimmers of sunshine here and there...Showers and thunderstorms are also possible but along the lighter variety.
Temperatures basically are going to be pretty much in the range of 70-80 from PA & points NE...South of PA about the same temperatures until you get south of Washington DC..then the lower 80s are more likely.
High temperature today July 20 @ KABE 83
Rainfall over the next 48 hours
The above map is based off the latest SREF as well as the GFS...A blending of the two. Low pressure will move up along the old stalled out stationary boundary off the east coast. This will bring showers, rain and thunderstorms to the region. Along with the showers, rain and thunderstorms will be more humidity!
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