Watching the Long Range

Hello all, its Ryan back from a long break the past few weeks to get a project I am involved in up and running. It is great to see snow affecting the region, as yesterday in Central MD we received anywhere from 4-8 inches. Attention now turns to the Day 7/8 threat where the East Coast could see a snowstorm that drives up the coast. Currently, and as always the models are up in the air about this storm, so we must simply analyze the current models and predict what the future may hold. I will have a full update possibly out this evening.

Scenario Map For Jan 29-31st One and Only Scenario Map!

Real Weather Services Alert #5

Time: 1:30 AM

Date 1/27/2010

Dates Effected: 1/29-1/31

Real Weather Services continues to maintain the thinking that a significant snowfall is on the way for the MD/PA border and points south..

R.W.S also continues to maintain that until the energy gets on land we are still not at the final solution.

Summary of tonights 00z Model runs..It should be no surprise as to what we are seeing on the model runs tonight. As was noted earlier in the afternoon by R.W.S .. beyond 72 hours the models have had a bias of having the Polar Vortex to far south and too strong. We have seen on tonights models that the PV is continuing to move off to the east and the southern stream S/W is being held back over the Southwest longer.. What this does is it allows the PV to move out of the way and allow the energy coming down on the backside to attempt at partially phasing which then is causing this system to slowly become nudged northwards...

Tonights 00z ECM has jumped pretty solidly north with the QPF . 12 Z runs were bone dry in Richmond VA and had no precipitation to DC and tonights ECM has precipitation to DC and moderate precipitation in Richmond

To some this may seem insignificant but its actually quite significant. 

00Z GGEM also has come in more North and west then its 12 Z counterpart. Again, this should be no surprise as the ensemble mean was more N & W with the system and its QPF.

Here at R.W.S we like to point out potential red flags that can have an effect on a models outcome down the road. On tonights 00z UKMET at 72 hours the low pressure is over Central Lousianna..However its bigger brother the ECM is further to the south. This could be a potential red flag to the ECM that it should come further to the north then what it currently is being depicted.

00z GFS ensembles have also come further north with the QPF shield compared to the earlier model runs during the day on the 26th.

So..what does this all mean? This is the current thinking at R.W.S ..if the trends we seen starting at 18 Z on the NAM/GFS continue as they have in the 00z runs of the PV moving out faster and the southern stream S/W slowing down..this potentially could lead to a partial phase or a full phase (though much lesser chance) with the energy dropping in on the backside. This then would lead to an even more north solution.

As is now, a significant snowstorm is likely from the PA/MD border south but some  potential signs that are being shown are looking like precipitation could now make it north of that borderline, 

How far North is the question? If things continue to trend where they appear to be trending and that southern stream s/w is becoming stronger each run..and if that southern stream s/w coming on land adds extra strength..then we could be looking at this getting far enough north to effect NYC and extreme Southern New England.

Right now its becoming an almost certainty for south of the PA/MD border but chances of snow occurring North of that border have been upped slightly.

Stay tuned for further updates!

Real Weather Services Alert #4

Time 3;10 PM

Date: 1/26/2010

Potential exists for a significant snowfall from the PA/MD line south. All guidance as of 12 Z today has shifted this next area of low pressure further to the south. Even the most northern model which was the GFS has shifted to the south.

I have been reading alot about the reason for the shift to the south is due to the position of the Polar Vortex. This , however, is not the case. The Polar Vortex is actually to the east. The reason that this system is not being shown to come up the coast is due to a lack of phasing. If the two streams were to phase together then this storm could come up the coast. Is this a case of the southern stream energy being over poor data areas? This could be a possibility and we will know by 12 Z tomorrow if that is indeed the missing key to this winter storm puzzle.

Real weather services looks to the models for guidance but more importantly takes a blend of the models for the final solution. R.W.S also likes to look to the means when there is some question as to what to expect weather wise.

12 Z GFS ensemble means have shifted to the south and to the east. This is a abrupt change from its earlier runs of the 25th of January.

12 Z GGEM ensemble members 12 out of 20 show the low pressure area further to the north and quite a few even suggest a coastal hugger.

12 Z ECM ensemble means is about 30 miles further to the north and west and the precipitation is somewhat further north as well

12 Z UKMET has not updated on the source that i use so I have no information on that model. 

At this point and time the NAM does not go out far enough to cover the storm.

So where does this lead us? Here at R.W.S we are viewing the guidance as still not in complete harmony due to the factor that the ensemble means of two of the foreign models are further to the north and west and in one of those models much further north and west.  

R.W.S also recognizes that the southern stream energy is still not on land so the exact strength of this S/W is still not known. 

R.W.S feels that right now the best chances for a significant snowstorm are to the south of the PA/MD border. This would be using a blend of the models at this point and time. However..this is also not set in stone and probably will not be set in stone until 00z runs on thursday. 

R.W.S feels that since this storm is coming from the GOM that it is going to be heavily laden with QPF and its also possible that even though the low may stay suppressed to the south..with such a massive QPF shield that places N of the PA/MD border along the coast to slightly inland could end up seeing snow.

R.W.S does not think at this point that 40 N or PA/MD border north along the coast is out of the game..but chances of anything significant have been lowered at this point and time.

Stay tuned for further updates!

Real Weather Services Special Alert #3

Time: 2:30 AM

Date: January 26th 2010

Dates Effected: January 29-31st

Summary of 25 (00z-18z) 26th (00z) model runs..

Model runs for the period of the 25th consisted of the ECM remaining relatively steadfast with further north QPF then previous run. The GFS ever since its 6z run has been trending towards the North with the QPF and its ensembles also support the operational as well.

This brings us to the 26th 00z Model runs in which the UK/GGEM/ECM have shifted to the south and have the Polar Vortex too strong and too far south. The GFS remains consistent with its prior three runs and brings more significant precipitation into the eastern seaboard and slightly inland.

Here at Real Weather Services , a couple rules that we like to follow is the following: 

1. 1 run does not make a trend.

2. Final solutions will not be converged upon until 48-72 hours out.

3. Is the energy on land yet? If not the energy is in poor data area.

4. Solutions for actual storms are a blend of all the models (guidance)

5. Consistency is important when looking at the models.

So where does this all lead to with the current thinking at this point and time? The fact that we are still 4-5 days out from this system and the energy is not over data rich areas..the models will continue to show scenario to different scenario. If you think about it ..The GFS has already shown all the suppressed scenarios..however the other models like the GGEM/UK/ECM have been showing decent hits across the region. So ..at Real Weather Services, the thinking is that the other models are still going thru the cycle that every storm system goes thru which is to show just about every possible scenario until we are closer to the time of the storm. 

Being that this was just one run of the foreign models to show this ..it can not be considered a trend until it would be followed up by another run. Also,if those models ensembles come in further north this would throw up a red flag to those solutions as well.

So for now, Real Weather Services is going to continue with the model that has been the most consistent which is the GFS.  However..Real Weather Services acknowledges the runs that have gone south this evening. 

Alot of what is going to happen is going to come down to the Polar Vortex and how strong and how far south it is. So far this winter season on the global models the Polar Vortex have been modeled too strong and too far south beyond 72 hours. Which is still the range that we are in. 

So with that said ..Real Weather Services continues to think that the potential is there for a significant winter storm across portions of the Mid Atlantic into the Northeast. However..also acknowledges that there is the possibility that this potential can also be confined to VA and points south. 

Stay Tuned For Further Updates!

Real Weather Services Weather Alert Continued!

Real Weather Services Weather Alert


January 25th 2010

Time: 2:00 AM



Real Weather Services is continuing a special Weather Alert statement for a potential snowstorm for the time frame of January 29th to January 31st. The system which is now moving thru the great lakes region will send a cold front thru the region during the day tomorrow. This system and its cold front becomes the pattern changer and will set the stage for much colder weather in the wakes of a system coming out of the GOM and the SE States.

The January 25th 2010 foreign models agree with the synoptic set up and essentially on the track of the area of low pressure. This area of low pressure will encounter blocking due to a Bermuda High on its eastern side and will want to take the path of least resistance. With a high pressure North of NY State..this will mean the path of the low will be between that High pressure to the North and the high pressure creating the blocking in the atlantic to the east. This would send a low pressure system over the Gulf Stream roughly 50-100 miles off the east coast moving up towards the benchmark.

Real Weather Services believes that this storm as we get closer in time could trend stronger and increase QPF across the region.
The 00z ECM actually is more amplified then its 12 Z run which brought the system much more to my line of thinking. I am not worried about the QPF amounts that this is showing because this system will be coming from the GOM and also tapping into the Atlantic because of the Gulf stream.
One potential to the ECM is the 00z UKMET in that it is more amplified then the ECM was at a further south location. So what I believe we should see if further amplification in future runs of the ECM.
The GFS continues to be suppressing this system to the south and to the east but I believe that is due to its progressive nature and also its model bias. The GFS should correct itself as we get closer to the event.

Stay Tuned for further updates on this situation!

Real Weather Services Weather Alert

January 24th 2010

Time: 2:09 AM

Real Weather Services is issuing a special Weather Alert statement for a potential snowstorm for the time frame of January 29th to January 31st. A system currently now moving thru the great lakes region will send a cold front thru the region during the day on monday! This system and its cold front becomes the pattern changer and will set the stage for much colder weather in the wakes of a system coming out of the GOM and the SE States.

The January 24th 2010 foreign models agree with the synoptic set up and essentially on the track of the area of low pressure. This area of low pressure will encounter blocking due to a Bermuda High on its eastern side and will want to take the path of least resistance. With a high pressure North of NY State..this will mean the path of the low will be between that High pressure to the North and the high pressure creating the blocking in the atlantic to the east. This would send a low pressure system over the Gulf Stream roughly 50-100 miles off the east coast moving up towards the benchmark. Whether this rides directly over the benchmark or slightly to the east or west is not clear yet. 

The January 24th 00z ECM showed a SECS/MECS from DC to Boston. 

While this in no means is a scenario set in stone..the ECM is one of the best models there is at the day 6 time frame. So when the ECM suggests the potential for a SECS/MECS..Real Weather Services has to acknowledge that potential scenario.

Real Weather Services believes that this storm as we get closer in time could trend stronger and increase QPF across the region. 

Stay Tuned for further updates on this situation! 

January 24-26th 2010 Mid Atlantic & Northeast Rain Event!

Flood Watches will probably be issued thru out a vast majority of the region!

This low pressure area will be moving from the Midwest/Plains states towards the Great Lakes! Extended from this area of low pressure will be a cold front. This cold front should cross the region on Monday.This system will tap into the GOM & bring plenty of precipitation into the area in the form of rain. 

00z Suite 1-20-2010 Model Update

This post will be edited as the models continue to come out! We start off with the 00z NAM which continues with the theme of keeping this to the south. Is this a plausible solution? In one way ..it could be plausible, in the sense that because of blocking this low pressure can only go so far north. However..HPC considered the NAM and outlier at 12 Z and this run basically shows the same thing as 12 Z NAM showed so that raises a red flag to the NAM solution.

Next up will be the 00z GFS at 10:30 PM

Pretty much as anticipated and expected here at R.W.S the 00z GFS came further north from its earlier runs and also further north then the 00z NAM. The GFS is beginning to recognize that it was feeding to much energy off to the east and is now sending it more on a NE trajectory.

The 00z ECM came in further north then its 12 Z run. 

00z GGEM is also further north then what the 00z NAM was ..So basically all signs are pointing to a further north system then what the 00z NAM would indicate. 

This pretty much spells out that the 00z NAM is an outlier compared to the rest of the 00z model guidance...

Now..I have been saying all along that this system can only come so far to the north. This is due to the blocking that is in place. Generally this system should follow the frontal boundary that is laid out to the south...Current thinking is that the furthest north that this system should be able to proceed is the Delmarva, before being turned off to the ENE...

Depending on how much GOM this system can tap into as it moves across from west to east will determine how much QPF the region can see from this system. Current thinking right now is that the heaviest snows will be from MD Ne across South Central Pa into East Central Pa into Central NJ. Current thinking right now would be for a 2-4 or 3-6 type event..but if a more north track can prevail ..like as far north as the delmarva then we could be looking at higher QPF which would result in higher snowfall potential.

This is one heck of a way to run a January thaw! Yes, I do realize that we have been warmer the past few days...but this goes to show that a January Thaw does not mean that it can not still snow! 

1-19 18 Z GFS Model Update

For those of you that are following the potential storm possible for the 22nd and 23rd of this month, the operational 18 Z GFS was south and to the east. Above you will be able to find the ensemble means of that model run.

As one can see by the images above , the operational GFS is too strung out with this system compared to its means which makes it further south and east on the OP run. Also the GFS has a south and east bias!

January 21-23rd Early Scenario Map

Final map for Jan 17-19th 2010

Final Scenario Map For Jan 17-19th 2010

February 2010 Seasonal Outlook

Jan 17-19th Updated Scenario Map

Updated Scenario Map For Jan 17-19 2010

January 17-19th Early Preliminary Scenario Map

Subject to change

Janueary 7-8th Clipper Snows

I normally do not do this but I have made a revision to my forecast and this is now going to be the final map. The reason for the revision is the QPF backed off further to the north then what originally was with a blend of the solutions...

Winter Weather Advisory still in effect across the region. Even though Mt Holly refuses to issue one for the area

Winter Weather Advisory

Time 2 PM EST

Date: 1/6/2010

Effective: 1/7/2010 7 PM EST to 1 PM EST 1/8/2010

Low pressure currently over the southwest will continue to organize and track off to the east and eventually to the NE. This low pressure area will pass over the region with its ULL and then proceed off the coast around the SNJ to Delmarva area. Light snow will break out ahead of this approaching low pressure area. With temperatures on the cold side..the snow will start to accumulate immediately. Snow ratios will be on the range of 15:1-20:1 . At this time a light snowfall is expected with 2-4 inches across SE PA into east Central Pa and 1-3 into NE PA and 2-4 into NW and Central NJ.

The winter weather advisory covers all of SE PA into east central PA to NE PA into NW NJ.

A Winter Weather Advisory means that snow/sleet/ freezing rain is expected and travel conditions could become hazardous.

Stay tuned for any further statements, watches or warnings!

January 7-8th Clipper Potential

One area of low pressure over Northeastern Wyoming and another area of low pressure over Northeastern New Mexico are going to continue to move ESE and then move to the east Northeast to a position over WV by thursday evening. From there this low pressure will jump to the coast around the Delmarva region and continue to move off to the east Northeast from there. This low pressure where it redevelops will be key as to whether the eastern areas can pick up more snowfall or not. Also with the closed low going across the CWA this could add enhancement to the snowfall as well..but for now ..not confident whether that low will stay closed or if it will open back up. The heaviest snowfall will be in western PA and western NY and WV where as much as 3-6 inches could fall. Heading a little east 2-4 and then 1-3 along the coast. Again..the eastern sides could be 2-4 depending on where the low develops (if it is closer to the coast) and depending whether the closed low stays closed or not..

January 7-10th Clipper Snows Preliminary Early Call

I still think the area is going to see a general light snow event out of this system. I pretty much stated from the beginning that I did not agree with JB on what he was seeing with this system. Saw the MRF and thought it gave some credence to the GFS with the wave coming out of the GOM and the NAM as well in the overnight hours.. I think there is some credence in these runs with that occurring..but the problem appears to be that the cold air that is coming in is just too "overbearing" for any type of storm to really get its act together. Because there is no SW flow as the country is relatively being overtaken by a NW flow with cold air this is going to mean that the GOM essentially is shut down.
So essentially what this means is that any moisture that comes from this system is going to have to be produced by this system itself...So basically this looks to me like a piece of energy that will transfer energy to around the Delmarva and produce a weak area of low pressure that will not be able to tap into enough moisture and then move East Northeastwards.. Generally looking at a T-2 inch scenario with perhaps 1-3/2-4 in western PA....When i have a bit more time I will issue a map for this as a first call..

January 7-10 2010-Potential Snow Event

Very Early Preliminary Map

Update (RYAN) NNE Blizzard.

Hello all, it is Ryan with an update on the situation involving the NNE/Upstate NY event. My map verified well for all S of New York State for the event, and now it is time to see if the upper piece will come to fruition. There has been some snow in the totals already in info from the NWS and from watching radar imagery.

It is now time for the snow to affect Upstate NY in terms of Lake Effect, and the NNE namely Maine in a huge coastal event. The storm looks to really intensify up near Nova Scotia and then proceed to retrograde down into the Gulf of Maine. The accumulations on my final call look to hold up in this storm. Here are some images from the 00z NAM run tonight:

18hr- The storm takes aim at Nova Scotia first dumping very heavy snows there.

24hr-The storm reaches the mid 960's mb and is very intense near Nova Scotia, with the retrograde about to begin.
30hr-Nice retrograding here into the GOM as the low is very intense, although losing strength overall. The double barrel nature of the low completely takes the 850's under freezing all the way into the Atlantic.
36hr-Light-Moderate snows fall on the NNE/SNE as well as back up into NS. At this point the storm is winding down, and losing its QPF intensity. LES are well underway at this point in time for Upstate NY and even some for NE Ohio/NW PA/W MD/WV.

42 hr- The storm like hour 36 is dropping the light-moderate snows on the NNE/SNE with it winding down. The low is located off of the Northern Massachusetts coast at this point.
48 hr- The storm is moving out, leaving its last pieces of precip in the NE US and Canada as well.
60 hr QPF below shows the amount of precip falling the the NNE as well as upsate NY from the LES and the Blizzard/Winter Storm that will hit the NNE.
An analysis of what should occur in the state of Maine. There will be a major risk of coastal flooding in the state from the 60-70mph winds from my predicted 965mb low that will retrograde into the GOM. The erosion and effect on Maine's wonderful beaches could be devastating.
The accumulations listed in the image dont exactly match my call for NW Maine, 6-12'' was my call. I'm not really changing it, but 9-15'' is quite likely after viewing the QPF graphics.

All else that was forecasted sticks to my map created Wednesday Night(Really everything does):

If anything changes, I will update. The storm is really going according to plans.