Monday, May 31, 2010

May 31st Daily Weather Discussion

High temperature at KABE on the 30th was 85 degrees..this was another day that was above normal. Today will be likewise another day of above normal temperatures . Temperatures in the state of Maine will generally be in the 60s.. Pretty much everywhere else the temperatures will be in the 80s to around 90.

As far as weather is concerned the region will generally be looking at the chance of showers and thunderstorms with a cold front approaching the region before it just dies out. Once again due to lower shear being in place i think that the severe storms will be more isolated in nature despite some of the other parameters! So these will be more scattered about which means skies should be partly sunny if you are not experiencing these showers or thunderstorms.

May 31st Severe Weather Potential

Updated Severe Weather Outlook...Based off the SREF have expanded the severe zone up into NY

 

monday

Sunday, May 30, 2010

May 30th Daily Weather Discussion

May 29th high temperature @ KABE was 79 degrees. This was slightly above normal for this time of the year.

Today once again we will be getting into a warmer then normal pattern to finish out this month.Temperatures today will be in the 80s across majority of the region with the exception of 60s and 70s across northern new england.

Also today will be partly to mostly sunny across the region. A truly beautiful spring day! Almost summer like!

Saturday, May 29, 2010

May 29th Daily Weather Discussion

May 28th high temperature @ KABE was 73 degrees which was actually below normal once again.

Today is going to be a partly cloudy to mostly cloudy day across the region with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible part and partially from a mid level impulse moving thru early and then later in the day another impulse with a weak cold front. These impulses will produce isolated showers and thundershowers.

Temperatures today once again will pretty much be in the 70s across the region ..with perhaps some lower 80sfrom Southern NY to Southern Pa.

May 31st Severe Weather Outlook Preliminary Map

A backdoor cold front will be working its way into the region. At this point and time there is some question as to how far south this cold front will make it before retreating as a warm front. At the same time a shortwave will be crossing and heading into the GL regions.

Parameters: Cape 1000-3000

LI –2 to –6

Lapse Rates 6.0-6.5

Temperatures: 80s to lower 90s

Dew Points –Mid 60s

Pretty similar as this past severe weather events the past two days…the one con to this whole severe potential will be the fact that the shear is very weak! If we were to have better shear then there would be greater potential.

monday

Friday, May 28, 2010

May 28th Daily Weather Discussion

May 27th high temperature was 89 degrees @ KABE. There will be some showers and thunderstorms around PA early this morning and then basically the best chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms will become central to western PA and then southwards into the Carolina/VA area. Other wise partly sunny skies will pretty much be the main story..

Temperatures today will be cooler with temps only in the 70s in western PA . Pretty much in the 60s and 70s elsewhere with lower humidity as well!

Some of the storms in western PA could be severe but they will be more isolated. Best chance for severe will be in the locales further south!

Thursday, May 27, 2010

May 27th Daily Weather Discussion

A very hot day was on tap yesterday across the region with ABE breaking a record temperature from 1965 which was 91 . New record is now 92 degrees.

Today also is going to be another hot day but there is a backdoor cold front slowly moving to the south. This back door cold front yesterday produced numerous severe weather reports much like we anticipated..though some occurred outside the specified zone.

That same front is moving southwards today and will produce severe weather further to the south this time.

SPC has issued a 30% risk for hail and wind for a large part of eastern PA. I can not say I disagree with that call. The only thing lacking is shear..if there was higher shear we would be looking at a moderate risk but never the less we are looking at the potential for some dangerous storms with even tornados possible

Temperatures once again from PA into NY and south will be in the 80s and 90s. Further to the NE where the front has made its way thru will be in the 60s and 70s.

Today has the potential to be a very severe and nasty day. So please if you are out and about keep an eye to the sky and if anything approaches you …take cover!

Wednesday, May 26, 2010

May 26th Daily Weather Discussion

The high temperature May 25th @ KABE was 84 degrees. Today is going to be a mostly sunny day. However..there is a back door cold front working its way down towards the south from the NE. This currently is producing showers and storms over Maine and as it slowly sinks southwards it will enhance the chance of showers and thunderstorms across the region. Some of these storms will be severe across the region .

Temperatures today are going to be quite hot. High temperatures are going to be in the upper 80s to lower 90s basically all regions with the exception of too the north of the cold front where it will only be in the 70s.

So take it easy today due to the heat and high dewpoints its going to feel hot outside. Also keep an eye to the sky!

So What Really Has Changed?

Been talking about the weather patterns and what has changed and what has not really changed. Well one thing that we can all agree has changed has been the SSTS. But why have the SSTS changed? Have they changed because certain teleconnections have changed or could it be more of an El Nino bounce back?

HM describes it like this..

In my opinion, the cooling and rapid decline is mainly "El Niño bounce back" majorly induced by enhanced water vapor from the previous El Niño. Even though the numbers say otherwise, there is still an effect leftover in the atmospheric circulation/AAM. Since water vapor destroys ozone, incoming solar radiation has been generally reduced, despite weekly OLR anomalies that may represent positive values, and the heat energy of the water has been lost. The speed was perhaps further enhanced by the -QBO modulation (even further reduction in ozone/added -AAM) and decadal -PDO/AAM tedency to the climate.

He ends it with this..

So perhaps the swift drop was a nice timing of GCR increase in May, strong bounce back given water vapor/ozone, -PDO/AAM climate tendency and -QBO. Does this potentially mean that if some of these signals change that we just received a false La Niña signal or a false sense of the intensity expected?

So the above is something interesting to think upon in whether or not we are actually headed into a La Nina or what has happened has occurred due to the above mentioned occurrences.
So lets look at some teleconnections…

Lets start with the NAO

The NAO has been negative since October of 2009 and as of the latest reading which was April was still negative but not as negative as earlier.

The PNA

The PNA has been positive since June of 2009 in varying degrees of positiveness.

The AO

The AO has been negative since December of 2009 and as of April of 2010 that has continued as well..

So as one can see the NAO, PNA & AO all have not changed. They may have fluctuated in there degrees of intensity but the basis of the state has been the same.

CPC is the source for all this information

The one connection that has fluctuated the most is the EPO which has fluctuated back and forth from positive to negative.

What about the QBO?

The QBO has been negative since June of 2009 and has continued to get even more negative. Matter of fact it stands at –23.57 currently.

How about the PDO?

The PDO since Dec 09 has been neutral to positive and the most recent reading in April was still in the neutral to positive range at 0.78 which had climbed from its previously monthly reading.

The GlAAM ?

gltotaam.sig

The GLAAM has been up and down but has also been mainly positive and once again after taking a dive negative has come back positive..

So evidence by what is posted above..the question really becomes what has really changed in the over all weather pattern that has been dominant?

What about La Ninas and Easterly QBOS? They are really not all that common. Basically when a La Nina happens and occurs it is when the QBO is in its westerly phase. There was a paper written in 1992 to that effect

Click Here –Gray

So with the QBO in its easterly phase and negative phase this really limits the likely hood of a La Nina.

Factor into the above this El Nino was an El Nino Modoki and since 1950 only two El Nino Modokis were followed by a La Nina.

So the question that started this off basically was has the pattern really changed since winter? The answer to this after doing some research is no. The same pattern that has been persistent continues to be. The teleconnections which were have remained in the same state of direction. The only thing that has fluctuated is the GLAAM and the EPO.

It should also be noted that a negative QBO in an easterly phase is also indicative and supportive of a negative NAO and blocking!

In conclusion the pattern has not really changed because the teleconnections are essentially the same. So what has changed?

The one thing that has changed is the ENSO itself..however..the reason for the change is up to discussion and debate. This is why Real Wx Services looks at things from a global perspective and not just the ENSO itself.

A paper written by Chris De Freitas says the following

The surge in global temperatures since 1977 can be attributed to a 1976 climate shift in the Pacific Ocean that made warming El Niño conditions more likely than they were over the previous 30 years and cooling La Niña conditions less likely

Tuesday, May 25, 2010

May 25th Daily Weather Discussion

The high temperature may 24th was 78 degrees which was 4 degrees above normal.

Today is going to be a mostly sunny day across Vast majority of the region. One exception to this will be the state of Maine where clouds will be on the increase and showers will be developing in the afternoon. This same cold front , which is a back door cold front will begin to effect our area on Wednesday afternoon. Today though should be a mostly sunny day elsewheres & warming up some more.

Temperatures will be in the 80s thru out the region with some spots to the north touching 90 degrees.

Invest 90 Thoughts

Real Wx Services since the 22nd of May have been constantly discussing and monitoring the dry air and the shear that has been around Invest 90. While other Professional Mets thought that Invest 90 would become warm core and a Tropical storm and were pretty bullish on that happening, R.W.S decided to monitor the conditions surrounding this Invest.

Despite warm SSTS…if a tropical wave is in an infriendly environment due to shear and dry air..its generally not going to have the ventilation needed in order to strengthen, deepen and organize. This was something that was clear from the beginning with this system.

Here at R.W.S we are trying to figure out what these other agencies…were seeing that made them think that this was going to become better organized and approach Tropical Storm status.

Folks there is more to tropical waves developing then warm SSTS.

We will continue to be your source of information for Hurricanes & Tropical storms!

May 27th Severe Weather Potential

CAPE: 1000-4000

LI –2 to –8

Lapse Rates: 7.0-7.5

Trigger: Stalled Cold Front

Dew points 65-70

Temperatures in the 80s to around 90

Once again the one thing though that is lacking is the bulk shear.

thur

Monday, May 24, 2010

Monday the 24th Daily Weather Discussion

The high temperature the 23rd @ KABE was 74 degrees which was normal for this time of the year.

Today is going to be a partly to mostly cloudy day with the chance for some early scattered showers and possibly again in the afternoon but for the most part today will be a dry day from MD on Northeast.

Temperatures however are going to start to climb upwards with the 70s to 80s from south to north.

This will be followed by a day of warm weather and then a day of hot weather…And the day of hot weather looks to possibly produce some severe weather.

Preliminary Severe Weather Outlook For Wed the 26th

Preliminary Severe Weather Outlook For Wed the 26th
CAPE: 1000-3500
LI -2 to -8 depending on location
Temperatures:
... high 80s to lower 90s
Dew points 65-70
Trigger: Back door
cold front dropping down from New England...
One hindrance to
severe weather is little to any bulk shear.
Best chances for
severe from South Central PA to SE PA into Northern Jersey and Southeast
NY

wed

Sunday, May 23, 2010

May 23rd Daily Weather Discussion

May 22nd high temperature @ KABE was 73 degrees which is actually normal for this time of the year.

Today is going to be a mostly cloudy day with showers possible from Southern New England and points southwards into PA, NJ and MD. I do not think its going to be a completely rainy day but for the most part across those regions it should be a mainly cloudy day.

Of course with the clouds and shower possibility come cooler temperatures then the areas that will stay dry such as Northern New England. Temps there will be in the high 70s and maybe even some low 80s.

From Southern New England and points south temps will be mainly in the lower 70s

Saturday, May 22, 2010

Current thoughts on Invest 90

First invest of the tropical season is located around 25N73W. Needless to say there is alot of talk and speculation on what is going to happen with this particular invest. NHC seems to think that it will dissipate over the next 24 hours and develop a new low center further to the east. And from there will deepen and organize. This they think will happen within the next 72 hours.

While this is a possibility ..I basically believe that right now there is too much that is currently stacked against this from deepening .

image 


You can see the current shear and the amount of dry air that is around the invest. Shear is 50-60 knots. So i do agree with the aspect of this invest will die out. However..even if it reforms to the east…by 250 miles as the current thinking is you are still dealing with shear between 30-50 knots . Dry air is also increasing out ahead of this system off the South east coast.



So what I think at this current time is that it is going to remain a weak disorganized system that will slowly head off towards the west towards the SE coast. In particular the Carolinas. Too early too say if it makes landfall or not considering its strength is totally up in the air.



It will be interesting to see if the warmer then normal SSTS can overcome the other features that are hindering the development currently.

May 22nd Daily Weather Discussion

May 21st the high temperature at KABE was 87 degrees. this was about 16 degrees above normal!

Today is going to be another day that is partly to mostly sunny. However..western PA may be contending with severe thunderstorms and winds would be the main concern. However…this should be more isolated..The main severe will be west of there. There could also be some showers and thunderstorms further east In Pa but i think most of the wetness will hold off till Sunday.

Temperatures today will once again be on the warm side though not quite as warm as yesterday was. High temperatures will be in the 70s to lower 80s across the region.

Friday, May 21, 2010

May 21st Daily Weather Discussion

May 20th high temperature @ KABE was 81 degrees. As promised the below normal temperatures have ended and we are now on the stretch of above normal temperatures for the forseeable future.

Today is going to be a mostly sunny day across the region. And its going to be a warm day!

Temperatures will be in the 80s across most of the region but Northern New England will be in the 60s and 70s. All and all a beautiful weather day on tap if you like warm weather!

Thursday, May 20, 2010

May 20th Daily Weather Discussion

The high temperature May 19th was 64 degrees. This was still below normal by about 7 degrees. However..this should be the last day below normal …

Today will be a much warmer day across the area and should be a mostly sunny day as well. There may be a chance of scattered showers from E NY and north early on but other wise things should clear out!

High temperatures today will be in the 70s to lower 80s across all the region. This should be the start of an above normal trend temperature wise!

Wednesday, May 19, 2010

May 19th Daily Weather Discussion

High temperature May 18th @ KABE was 55 degrees which was 16 degrees below normal….

Today is going to be a mostly cloudy sky with a chance of scattered showers and mist but more concentrated rains into New England area. Further south could see some clearing of the skies later in the day..

Todays high temperatures will be mainly in the 50s where there is still rain occurring and in the 60s most every where else.

Monday, May 17, 2010

May 18th Weather Discussion

The high temperature May 17th was 70 degrees which was slightly below normal..

Today is going to be basically a cloudy day with rain falling at varying intensities thru out the day at least from NYC and points southwards.. Further north it will probably take the rain till later in the evening to make it to that area.

Temperatures today are also going to be below normal with highs in the 50s and 60s from NYC points southwards but to the north where rain does not effect the weather temps will be in the 70s.

May 17th 2010 Daily Weather Discussion

May 16th High temperature @ KABE was 70 degrees! This was only one degree below normal for this time of the year.

Today is going to be an increasingly cloudy day with rain spreading into much of the region by the afternoon/early evening hours. Rainfall might not actually make it far enough north to effect northern New England so more or less they should just have cloudy skies.

Temperatures from PA/MD border south should be in the 60s where temperatures to the north will be in the 70s.

Sunday, May 16, 2010

May 16th Daily Weather Discussion

High temperature May 15th @ KABE was 72 degrees! A beautiful spring like day took shape across the area.

Today for the most part is going to be another beautiful day if the guidance is correct. Low pressure should stay to the south today but reviewing the latest radar it appears as if the rainfall could be further north then anticipated by the latest guidance.

So, the forecast is going to call for mostly sunny skies with a slight chance of showers but for the most part this is anticipated to hold off till monday. We will continue to monitor the radar and see where that moisture goes and exactly how much of it is hitting the ground or if it is all aloft.

The greatest chance of showers if they were to occur as is would be over MD and south of there.

Temperatures today will once again be in the 60s to lower 70s across the region!

May 17-19th rainfall Preliminary

Low pressure will be moving thru the tennessee and Ohio river Valley. Precipitation will spread into the area on Monday. This precipitation will be associated with an approaching warm front as well.

This low pressure should move off the coast to our south but will keep rain in the forecast for tuesday. The heaviest appears to be monday night into tuesday.

rain

At this point and time it appears as if it will be a lighter rainfall event and similar to the storms in the winter. Meaning that the bulk will be over the southern Mid Atlantic and the low should slide off to the south of the region.

This will NOT be the end of the rain chances but thats a different storm and a different topic!

Saturday, May 15, 2010

May 15th Daily Weather Discussion

The high temperature May 14th at KABE was 80 degrees which was 10 degrees above normal.

Today for the most part is going to be a mostly sunny day after some early morning shower potential. The only exception will be northern new england where some scattered showers can continue thru the afternoon hours.

Today will be a much more comfortable day temperature wise as well.. with temperatures mainly in the 50s in maine and the 60s and 70s elsewhere.

A beautiful weekend of weather is essentially on tap before things start to go downhill once again both temp and weather wise..

May 14th Hail Storm In South Allentown

Sky before the storm

001

Video of the storm..was at work so could only get so much but got the most important part which was the hail

 

After the storm

003

Friday, May 14, 2010

May 14th Weather Discussion

The high temperature May 13th was 67 degrees which was only 3 degrees below normal.

Today is going to be a day that ends up above normal across majority of the region as  a warm front moves across the region. This is going to put from about NYC and points south into the warm sector and allow temperatures to get into the 70s and perhaps some 80s.

However, this is also going to allow the potential for severe weather to occur with gusty winds and large hail potential especially from East Central Pa into NJ and points south. So expect early clouds and showers and storms from northern PA and northwards and then skies should partially clear allowing daytime heating to occur out ahead of a cold front that will be one of the parameters responsible for the severe weather potential.

A couple days ago R.W.S issued a map for the potential of this severe weather and nothing has changed parameter wise that would lead to a change in that map.

Very heavy rain is also possible with these storms.

In northern new england however the temperatures will still only be in the 50s and 60s as the warm front does not really progress that far northwards.

Thursday, May 13, 2010

May 13th Weather Discussion

The high temperature May 12th @ KABE was 50 degrees! This was 20 degrees below normal.

Today is going to be a partly to mostly cloudy day across the region with the chance for some scattered showers and thunderstorms but this will not be till towards afternoon and most likely evening.

On the western side of PA some of the storms could become severe so keep an eye to the sky if out and about!

Temperatures today will be slightly warmer then they were yesterday with temperatures in the 50s and 60s. However, for the most part these are still going to be running below normal across vast majority of the region.

Wednesday, May 12, 2010

May 12th Daily Weather Discussion

The high temperature May 11th @ KABE was 56 degrees which was 13 degrees below normal.

Today is going to be a mainly cloudy day once again with rain thru a good portion of the day. There may also be some snow once again in the higher elevations..mainly in New York State.

Already .72 inches of rain has fallen from this system thru 3 AM EST.

Temperatures today will be in the 40s and 50s from Northern PA into the Northeast. From southern Pa and points south temperatures will be in the 60s..

A look ahead thru the rest of the week generally looks to be on the wet side but temperatures will moderate somewhat, especially by the end of the week!

RWS Tropical Season Forecast 2010 (Forecaster Carlos)

RWS Tropical Season Forecast 2010
Complementary discussion to RWS’ Matt (AtownWxWatcher) :
This discussion completes and complements the forecast thoughts on the 2010 Tropical cyclone season provided by AtownWxWatcher. It will touch on the points talked about by him and also include a few extra points.
This discussion will touch on and include the following global parameters and conditions relevant to all tropical cyclone season:

  • North Atlantic Basin SSTs
  1. North Atlantic SST Tripole
  2. North Atlantic SST Tripole: Upward and Downward motions
  • ENSO Change
  1. El Nino --> Neutrality --> Weak La Nina
  2. Atlantic Basin Shear
  3. Convergency
  • MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation)
  • 2010 Tropical Cyclone Season Main Tracking
  • AMO Phase (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation)
  • ITCZ
  • QBO Phase (Quasi-biennial Oscillation)
  • ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy)
  • Analog Seasons
  • Season Tropical Cyclone Forecast Numbers
  • Low end Numbers (Tropical Cyclone Formation Hindering Parameters)
  • Medium end Numbers (Tropical Cyclone Formation Encouraging Parameters Outweighing Hindering Ones)
  • High End Numbers (Tropical Cyclone Formation Encouraging parameters)

North Atlantic Basin SSTs:

This hurricane season will feature much above average Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) across much if not all of the tropical Atlantic basin waters which include the tropical eastern Atlantic waters off the coast of Northern Africa, the Atlantic ocean Hurricane Alley, Caribbean sea and the Bahamas Atlantic waters as well as the waters off the Southeast CONUS coast courtesy of the Gulf stream current. Additionally, the Gulf of Mexico (GOM or GOMEX) waters has been experiencing a rapid warm of its waters from the much colder aspect it has had during the early spring.

carlos1

The result of such warmer SSTs though the vast majority of the tropical Atlantic ocean is that SSTs around 26 °C (~80 °F), are conducive for the formation and sustainability of tropical cyclones , as long as other important factors related to tropical cyclone formation are contributing. Therefore, the higher the SSTs, the stronger the tropical cyclones as the feed off the latent heat released by the enormous amounts of evaporation and condensation those much warmer SSTs would allow. This tropical cyclone parameter alone, is one of the main forces behind the formation of a tropical system, and given how warm they are for this season, this is undoutly one of the main positives for an at least average season.

The North Atlantic SST Tripole:

The Atlantic basin SSTs are responsible for the formation of the North Atlantic Tripole, which basically is 3 different areas of SSTs throughout the Atlantic Basin; either warm cold warm or cold warm cold. For this tropical Atlantic season, the tripole has set itself up to the warm cold warm configuration, which is best for tropical formation enhancement as it leads to much more upward than downward motion.

carlos2

North Atlantic SST Tripole Upward and Downward Motions:

By having the North Atlantic Tripole configured to its warm-cold-warm pattern, the SSTs distribution then allows for much more of the vital upward motion over the basin as opposed to the downward motion which hinders tropical cyclone formation and deepening, as it allows for sinking air to be dominant instead of rising air, which is seen with upward motion. The formation of tropical cyclones are dependent on upward motion because rising air kick starts the building of cumulu-nimbus clouds which then result in the beginning of the convective processes that lead to thunderstorm formation and eventually the falling of the air/surface pressure and then surface low pressure system formation. Additionally the North Atlantic Tripole, influences the paths tropical systems take as the warm SSTs areas encourage upward motion and thus an overall area of lower pressures over the warm SSTs, encouraging the tropical cyclones to follow the upward motion areas.

carlos3

ENSO Change:

The next major player for any hurricane season is the ENSO status. For this season, we are seeing the collapse of the positive ENSO (El Nino) to be replaced by ENSO neutral and even possibly a weak negative ENSO (La Nina). This change greatly influences many aspects related to the formation of tropical cyclones, and is therefore very important if not most chief when making a tropical season forecast, as it affects the overall global pattern and hence the more localized Atlantic ocean basin pattern.

El Nino --> Neutrality --> La Nina:
El Niño-Southern Oscillation, , is a global climate pattern that forms across the tropical Pacific ocean and can be also know as a quasi-periodic pattern and is most characterized by the warming of the waters off the coast of northern South America.. Over the Atlantic ocean basin, especially the tropical Atlantic, El Nino increases vertical wind shear, which greatly hinders tropical cyclone formation as the vertical wind shear rips apart the intense thunderstorms near the center of the tropical cyclones, which are responsible for the formation of lower pressure and eventually the surface low pressure center. Thus, increased vertical shear over the tropical Atlantic basin, diminishes tropical cyclone activity by hindering their formation and deepening.
As the El Nino collapses for the 2010 tropical cyclone season and gives way to a neutral ENSO, and possibly to a weak La Nina (Negative ENSO or Cold phase ENSO), the issue related to the vertical wind shear becomes much more tame and less of a problem, as the vertical wind shear would be less intense leading to shear values which tropical cyclones can withstand and therefore thrive . The more the ENSO swifts toward its cold phase, the more favorable the pattern of the Atlantic basin becomes for tropical cyclone formation and thus, lead to a more active season.


Convergence:
With the changing of the ENSO from its Warm phase to neutrality and perhaps towards its cold phase, the waters off the coast of northern South America become colder, and therefore create a good contrast between the waters there and those over the Caribbean and Gulf Of Mexico, as a result increased convergence becomes present , as the difference of the SSTs off the coast of northern South America (ENSO waters) and the much warmer ones over the Gulf of Mexico and especially Caribbean sea induce the blowing of winds towards the Caribbean sea and therefore the convergence of surface winds and air over that area, which then leads to the formation of rain, then thunderstorms and then consequently, surface low pressure formation as the force of the collision forces air to rise, initiating thunderstorms.


MJO (Madden Julian Oscilation):
The Madden–Julian oscillation is an equatorial region propagating pattern of anomalous precipitation which of global scale As a result, it is distinguished by the progression eastward of hefty areas of enhanced and suppressed tropical precipitation. Since it has both enhance and suppressed rainfall patterns, the MJO has wetter and drier phases. The drier phase results in a lesser moisture content in the troposphere and more downward motion, and therefore the drier phase usually hinders tropical cyclone formation. On the other hand, the wetter phases are characterized by much more and even abundant moisture in the troposphere, leading to much more upward motion, then increased thunderstorm formation, which is key to kick start the cyclogenesis necessary for tropical cyclone formation.
For this season, it is believed, that the MJO phase pulses will be much more predictable and will spend more time over the areas which are more conducive for tropical cyclone formation due to the collapse of the warm ENSO phase as the MJO is greatly more active during the cold ENSO phase. For this eason, taking into consideration that the ENSO is basically in a neutral state right now, an increased, more regular and predictable MJO behavior seems to be on the table for this tropical season over the Atlantic basin, as the MJO wet phase pulses, traverse eastward from the Pacific ocean into the Caribbean sea/ GOM and into the greater tropical Atlantic basin.

2010 Tropical Cyclone Season Main Tracking:

We believe that due to the aforementioned and discussed convergence and the configuration of the North Atlantic SSTs Tripole for this season, which its configuration indicates much more upward motion throughout the tropical Atlantic ocean, the main tracking for the tropical cyclones this season will be, to the north, the Atlantic Hurricane Alley on towards the Bahamas and SE CONUS, and then the climatological tracks due to the Coriolis Effect force, recurvature towards the Northeastern US, Southeast Canada and the northern areas of the North Atlantic ocean and to the south, the Caribbean sea, which is looking to be much more active this season due to much better convergence, upward motion and ENSO neutral resulting in a much friendly vertical wind shear profile, and then into the Gulf Of Mexico.

carlos4

AMO Phase (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation):

Signal defined from the changes in the SST patterns of the North Atlantic Ocean and has a warm and cold phase. Currently, the AMO, which is a quasi-periodic cycle, is going through its warm phase. As a result of past observations, when the AMO is in its warm phase, the Atlantic Ocean sees a modest increase in number of category 1 and 2 hurricanes, while there is still no solid evidence that the warm AMO phase increases the number of major hurricanes over the Atlantic basin. Additionally, the warm phase of the AMO focus most of the Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks towards the east coast of the CONUS, which falls in line with our 2010 tracking resultant from the increased convergence and upward motion seen with the warm-cold-warm North Atlantic SST Tripole and the overall areas of above normal SSTs across the tropical Atlantic basin.

image014

Carlos5

ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone):

Area around the Equator parallel where the southern and northern hemispheres winds join together. It plays an important role on the tropical season because it can aid in the formation of tropical cyclones by allowing for low-level vorticity due to being an area where wind speed and change occurs, or if you will an area where horizontal wind shear takes place. So, keeping that in mind, once the ITCZ migrates to the north of its climatological area during the northern hemisphere summer, which coincides with a good part of the tropical cyclone season over the Atlantic basin, increased Coriolis force occurs and therefore, thunderstorm formation becomes more likely within African tropical waves AKA Eastern tropical waves. As the thunderstorms continue to grow taller, surface pressures fall and eventually a surface pressure system forms and cyclogenesis gets under way.

QBO (Quasi-biennial Oscillation):

Just like the ENSO, the QBO is also a quasi-periodic pattern or oscillation. It also has three phases: an easterly or negative phase, a neutral phase and a westerly or positive phase.
It has importance on the tropical Atlantic basin and on the forecast, because it influences the precipitation pattern and amounts on Africa, which then directly influences the African tropical wave train, either making them wetter and more robust, or drier, weaker and less frequent. Currently the QBO is going through its east phase, which is a less conducive phase for tropical cyclone formation over the Atlantic Ocean since it can change monsoonal precipitation and due to the facts aforementioned on this same paragraph.
So in the case of the QBO because of its –QBO phase, tropical cyclone activity over the Atlantic ocean would be weaker as long as the –QBO were to be the dominant parameter for this season.


ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy):
For general and learning purposes, ACE is an evaluation used to express the energy used by a single tropical cyclone or that used by all tropical cyclones during a season. Moreover, the ACE for a tropical cyclone season is used to categorize the level of activity seem during the season. Below is the equation:

Attached Image
As per NOAA:
• Above-average season: ACE value above 103, which is 117% of the 1951–2000 median, as long as at least two of the following three parameters go beyond the long-term average: number of tropical storms (10), hurricanes (6), and major hurricanes (2).
• Near-normal season: not above-normal and not below normal.
• Below-normal season: ACE value below 66, which is75% of the 1951–2000 median.
Additionally, another important point to make is that the Southern Hemisphere ACE has been seen during the last decade or so, to correlate quite nicely with the Northern Hemisphere ACE and the hurricane season. Therefore, since the ACE has been on a 30-year low, if ACE alone were the ruling factor, the tropical cyclone activity over the Atlantic basin would see lower activity this season.

carlos6

carlos7

carlos8

Analog Seasons: (2005 and 2008):

By looking back over past tropical cyclone seasons for the Atlantic basin, 2005 and 2008 stand out, mainly because of the many similarities they share with the 2010 season. The most important ones among them, include the ENSO which was a collapsing El Nino into neutrality and then turned into an La Nina, the SSTs over the tropical Atlantic and the North Atlantic Tripole, which directly leads to more upward motion along with more frequent wet MJO phases, and more convergence directly related to the contrast in SSTs and wind surface patterns over the waters of northern South America and the Caribbean sea due to a neutral or cold ENSO status and the much warmer Caribbean SSTs.

Season Tropical Cyclone Forecast Numbers:
  • Low end Numbers (Tropical Cyclone Formation Hindering Parameters):

Would occur in case the current –QBO, low ACE and the ENSO phase warm, were to become dominant. If so, them up to 8-9 named tropical cyclones would form.
  • Medium end Numbers (Tropical Cyclone Formation Encouraging Parameters Outweighing Hindering Ones): [ Main RWS activity forecast number for the 2010 tropical cyclone season]

Will occur as long as the current parameters already favorable stay that way and the atmospheric pattern of the Atlantic basin remain as they are as well as the oceanic patterns. Therefore, 14-18 named tropical cyclones may form.
  • High End Numbers (Tropical Cyclone Formation Encouraging parameters):


Would occur in case the ENSO switched to a weak to moderate La Nina, the –QBO turned to a +QBO and the ACE reversed from its 30 year low to its above average value of 103. If so, than as many as 19 to 21 tropical cyclones would form.

Forecast Graphic:

carlos9

Severe Weather Preliminary potential for May 14th 2010

CAPE 1000-3000 depending on location

LI or Lift Index is –2 to –8 depending on location

Bulk shear 30 knots or greater

Trigger will be a cold front approaching the area which will cross the region friday night.

Showers and thunderstorms (severe) will break out ahead of the front…Temperatures will be in the 70s and even some 80s on friday ahead of the front….

Yellow is the lowest risk chance due to lower parameters

Orange is Medium next level up with greater parameters

Red is the area with the greatest parameters at this point and time.

This is a preliminary outlook so this is subject to change!

severe

Tuesday, May 11, 2010

May 11th Daily Weather Discussion

May 10th the high temperature @ KABE was 60 degrees. Even though this was warmer then the previous day ..it still fell in the 9 degrees below normal range and with the overnight low of 32 degrees it became a –12 degree departure day.

Today once again is going to be another day on the cool side with an added factor of rain beginning to effect the region during the day today. Later in the evening and into the overnight hours in the state of NY there may be some higher elevations snows. Basically above 1000 feet is where this would occur and this just goes to show the air mass that is currently in place is sort of more winter like then it is spring like despite what the calendar says.

Temperatures today will mainly be in the 50s across the region.

Updated Hurricane Season From Real Wx Services

Real Wx Services has felt the need to revise the preliminary hurricane that was issued earlier. There were several deciding factors that have gone into the revision of the forecast. We will discuss these factors in this update.

On the other side of the coin there are also some wildcards which at this point will be interesting to see what effect they have on the hurricane season.

First factor in favor of a more active hurricane season is the above normal SSTS.

ssta.5.10.2010

sstg.5.10.2010

The next factor that seems to be in this seasons favor is the AMO or the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

image001

Now, this image only goes to 2006 but one thing about the AMO is that its phases last anywhere from 20-40 years which basically means that we are still in a positive phase. And a positive phase of the AMO is a good indicator of hurricane activity being increased and sometimes even doubled from standard activity. As you can see with this graph below..whether the AMO is negative or positive does make a difference in #s and somewhat on tracks as well..

image014

As you can see in the image on the right with a positive AMO the #s are indeed increased versus the figure on the left.

Another factor which is in favor of the hurricane season being more active is the ENSO itself. There is no longer a question of whether the ENSO is going to become neutral but now the question becomes , how long does it remain neutral and where does it go from there? Of course this answer can have an effect on the season as well, if it is only brief at neutral and swings back to an El Nino it would cause lower #s. So this is something to keep in the back of the mind as so far things weather pattern wise are comparable to last seasons weather pattern of wash, rinse and repeat.

There are a few things that also are on the opposite side of the coin that would or could argue for a lower # season.

Over the past 12 years the Southern Hemisphere ACE has correlated quite well to the following Northern Hemisphere ACE & hurricane season. The latest season of the SH ended up with a near normal ACE. This would argue for a near normal NH hurricane season. 

People have been comparing this season coming up to a potential season like 2005. The one main difference between that season and now is the ACE.

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global_running_ace

Truth of the matter is that basically we are at a 30 yr record low # as far as the ACE is concerned and it is starting below normal as well. So this factor here could argue for a normal season.

The other factor against an active hurricane season is the QBO or quasi-biennial oscillation. Atlantic hurricane activity is enhanced during the west phase of the QBO and diminished in the east QBO years.

The following is courtesy of Dave Tolleris or DT.

The QBO blows in east or negative phase for several months... sometimes as long as 9 to 15 months... then moves back towards Neutral.... then in the positive phase for 9 to 15 months... then back towards Neutral. The QBO phase ( +QBO or -QBO) influences the amount of High latitude Blocking in the Jet stream... the strength  and intensity of the Pacific Jet stream... and African rainfall which is an important aspect of hurricane seasonal forecasting.

As this link shows the current QBO is in the negative or EAST phase and continues to increase in the negative or easterly values as they come out of the winter into the spring. This means that during the spring months we can anticipate the QBO to reach a value of at least   -20 at some point over the next few months. The current -QBO has been in the easterly phase for last eight months so the probability is pretty high that the QBO is going to remain in the strong negative phase for several more months.”

So the above is another factor of a season that could end up being either normal or less then normal.

So there are various factors behind the scenes here that could work out for or against this seasons hurricane season.

And even in the Real Wx Service weather team there is a difference of opinions. However…we have basically decided that the things in favor out weigh the things not in favor. However. since we are a team we are issuing a team forecast and it is as follows:

updated

If i were to issue a forecast based solely on my thoughts it would be for 10-12 named storms with 4 of them as major hurricanes. We will continue to monitor things as the season approaches!

Monday, May 10, 2010

Rainfall Returns May 11-14th 2010

Low pressure will be moving thru the lower great lakes region, thru northern Ohio and then across the state of PA then off the coast. This are of low pressure and its associated trough will move a warm front thru the region followed by a cold front. This complex frontal system and associated trough will be responsible for our next rainfall beginning during the day on tuesday. There may also be some thunderstorms in SW pa but most of the thunderstorm activity will be confined to Ohio where there will be the risk of severe weather.
In NY State overnight tuesday night ...there may be some snow mixed in with the rain.

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May 10 Daily Weather discussion

May 9th high temperature @ KABE was 52 degrees. This was 17 degrees below normal and as we been telling you the bottom was going to be dropping out and that basically has occurred as far as the temperatures are concerned.

Today is going to be a mostly sunny day across the region..however..once again temperatures are going to be running anywhere from 10-20 below normal with highs in the 40s to 50s. However the one key thing that will not be involved today is the wind..So even though the temperatures are going to be well below normal it will actually feel warmer then it was yesterday!

Sunday, May 9, 2010

May 9th Daily Weather Discussion

The Bottom Has Dropped Out!

May 8th high temperature @ KABE was 71 degrees. This was once again a few degrees above normal.

The bottom has basically dropped out on the weather. From temperatures to start and weather to follow. Today is going to be a mainly sunny day in PA after some early chances of rain and snowshowers in N PA. Other parts of the NE from NY state and into NNE will also experience rain showers as well as snowshowers . These will dwindle down by late in the evening with the exception of the state of Maine where the chance will continue. Winds will also start to wind down somewhat ..It will still be breezy however.

Temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s thru out the region which is actually 10-20 below normal for this time of the year. Freezes will occur later tonight . So if you have any plants/flowers etc you may want to cover them up!

Saturday, May 8, 2010

May 8th Daily Weather Discussion

High temperature on May 7th @ KABE was 70 degrees!

Today is going to be a mostly cloudy day with showers and thunderstorms occurring as a cold front makes its way across the region. Its also going to be a very windy day with gusts at times approaching 40 miles per hour. Most of the rain in PA should be over by about noon time..however further north the chances will continue thru out the day.

Temperatures today are going to begin to take a tumble downwards and stay there for a bit with some pretty cold air coming in especially with the overnight lows coming up in the mornings ahead. Highs in Maine will be in the 40s , In NNY and NNE temperatures will generally be in the 50s to low 60s and south of there in the 60s with perhaps some 70s out ahead of the front into SNJ and DE . However ..later tonight temperatures will take a tumble downwards.

Friday, May 7, 2010

May 7th Daily Weather discussion

The high temperature May 6th was 74 degrees which was 6 degrees above normal.

Today is going to be a mainly sunny day across the region though in the western region by evening there may be a chance of showers and thunderstorms. By late in the evening the rain will start to spread towards the central and eastern regions but should hold off till after midnight in the eastern regions.

Temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s from Maine SW along the western regions and in the 60s to 70s elsewhere across the region.

Thursday, May 6, 2010

May 6th Daily Weather Discussion

The high temperature May 5th at KABE was 79 degrees. This was once again about ten degrees above normal.

Today is basically going to be a mostly cloudy day with showers and thunderstorms across the region . From Pa and south these should wind down in the morning hours but further to the north they will be contending with the showers and thunderstorms longer with the approaching and passing cold front. Some storms could possibly reach severe status. R.W.S issued a map that can be found on this blog to reference to.

Temperatures will be in the 60s-70s from Northern pa and points North and east to the lower 80s from central and southern PA into NJ and points south!

Wednesday, May 5, 2010

Severe Weather Possible May 6th 2010

May6th

A trough in the middle level of the atmosphere is going to be moving thru the region during thursday.  Accompanying this trough will be a cold front.

CAPE is not all that impressive with generally under 1000 showing on the models. However, shear is rather impressive between 40 & 50 knots which should be sufficient enough to produces strong gusty winds and an isolated report of hail as well.

Wash Rinse & Repeat? Is this Happening?

Real Wx Services has been watching the way this spring has been unfolding and it seems as if this pattern is becoming a little too familiar. In other words, it almost appears as if we have experienced this before..slightly different in timing but similar results.

This is April 2009

Apr09TDeptNRCC

As you can see pretty much the vast majority of the region ended up above normal.

Now lets flash forward to April of 2010

Apr10TDeptNRCC

Obviously April of 2010 has been warmer but the same theme of above normal across the region is in both years.

With the above similarities one has to wonder if we are not still in a wash rinse and repeat pattern. If that is indeed the case then it argues to follow that the month of May 2010 should come out similar to the month of May in 2009.

This would generally imply seasonal to below seasonal with pockets of above normal in isolated locations.

Now so far May 2010 looks like this..

MonthTDeptNRCC

Many locations are well above normal. However, as if on time, models are suggesting well below normal temperatures with a amplified trough in the east around the 9th of the month

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_North32America_120

And keeping that trough in place thru the 13th before another trough reinforces that original trough and presents an Omega block.

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_North32America_240

If this scenario occurs we would be looking at an extended period of below to well below normal temperatures which would counteract the first few days of May and once again knock the departures back down to seasonal to below with pockets of above.

So while the ENSO may be weakening..getting close to neutral status.. the pattern itself has not changed which may suggest that we are indeed going to head back into neutral category ENSO wise…for  AMJ.. before if weather history is correct..we slide right back into a weak El Nino and a potential repeat of last summer.

May 4th 2010 Strong Winds @ ABE

May 5th Daily Weather Discussion

High temperature for the 4th @ KABE was 77 degrees which was 10 degrees above normal.

Today for the most part is going to be  a partly to mostly sunny day..there maybe some showers up in the state of Maine and some scattered showers along the extreme western portions of NY State ..but that would most be likely in the evening time. By later in the evening showers and thunderstorms will become possible pretty much across the region.

Temperatures will be in the 60s to 70s in Maine and Northern New England to the lower 80s elsewhere.

The above normal temperatures are about to come to an end and there will be a further post on this happening following this days discussion

Tuesday, May 4, 2010

May 4th Weather Discussion

The high temperature on May 3rd @ KABE was 79 degrees which was once again above normal.

Today’s forecast will consist of a trough moving thru the region which will bring a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms into the region but for the most part it should be a partly sunny day across the region. The best chance of these showers and thunderstorms will be from NY and northwards where there could even be some isolated severe storms.

Temperatures are going to be in the 60s to 70s from Maine SW over the interior regions of the mid atlantic and Northeast and from E MD, Delaware to SE PA to SNE and along the coast in NJ temps will be in the 70s to lower 80s.

Monday, May 3, 2010

May 3rd Daily Weather Discussion

May 2nd High temperature at KABE was 84 degrees. This was another above normal day.

The severe weather never occurred due to there ending up being a lack of a trigger as the cold front is still to the west of the region and has almost become stationary. However..general thunderstorms and rain had occurred. The cold front being slower is also going to mean a pretty warm day today again.

However, there is also going to be a chance of showers and thunderstorms thru the early part of the day and  then skies should clear out but some scattered showers still possible.

Temperatures from the 70s in the western areas to the 80s in the eastern areas.

It should be noted that R.W.S was not alone in the bust on the severe weather as so was the SPC with there slight risk outlook that originally started off as a 30% chance.

Sunday, May 2, 2010

Severe Weather Forecast for May 2nd, 2010-Forecast by Carlos!

Guidance used:

  • 50% SREF
  • 35% NAM
  • 15% GFS

An approaching cold front will allow for the lifting and mixing necessary for severe T-storms to develop across most of the region after noon. Severe weather parameters indicate that a Slight Risk of severe convective weather is likely, and therefore, T-storm formation will yield high-topped convection leading to possible supercell T-storms and other variety of weaker and unorganized severe T-storms due to a combination of decent to good Severe Weather Parameters, high Temperatures and moderate Dew Points as well as a moderate trigger, in the from of a Cold Front.

Players:
  • Decent to good Severe Weather Parameters
  • High Temperatures
  • Moderate Dew Points
  • FROPA acting as the Trigger

 

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Be prepared to take shelter to protect yourself in case a potent and violent severe T-storm is heading your way.

May 2nd Daily Weather Discussion

Record high temperature was set at KABE on May 1st of 88 degrees. This was 22 degrees above normal! And it was a scorcher for the most part across all of the NE and mid atlantic.

Today is going to have more in the way of showers and thunderstorms. A cold front is slowly advancing towards the area and this will act as a trigger with the day time heating and severe weather parameters in place to bring the potential for severe weather! Hail & Damaging winds in excess of 60 MPH and even a few isolated tornadoes will be possible. It will definitely be  a day to keep an eye on the sky.

Skies will be partly sunny to cloudy but temperatures will once again be very warm.

Temperatures in the 70s in Maine ..heading south thru NNE into SNE lower to middle 80s and a few upper 80s. south of there temperatures will be in the mid 80s to lower 90s. So once again it will be hot with the added potential excitement of severe weather!

Real Wx Service members will have their cameras charged and ready if any severe weather occurs in their area!

Saturday, May 1, 2010

Real Wx Services Discovers Potential Smoking Gun!

More than 200,000 gallons of oil a day are spewing from the blown-out well at the site of BP's Deepwater Horizon rig, which exploded April 20 and sank two days later..

Unless one lives in hibernation one has to be aware of what is happening in the Gulf Of Mexico. However..is what is occurring an actual accident? Or does it go perhaps deeper then that? Could this have been intentionally done?

Now, this is the opinion of myself, founder of Real Wx Services but I have made an interesting discovery. As weather enthusiasts we all know and realize that Hurricane Season is fast approaching. Matter of fact its only 30 days away.

What if i were to say that what is currently happening in the GOM was discussed as a potential way to control hurricanes? What if it was something that was brought up 20 years prior? Is it just a coincidence that this is happening 30 days before Tropical Season begins or could it be something more along the lines of an attempt by the government to control the weather and to curb hurricane damage?

Now to the discovery:

This can be found by clicking ----> Here 

There was also suggested about 20 years ago (Gray et al. 1976) that the use of carbon black (or soot) might be a good way to modify tropical cyclones. The idea was that one could burn a large quantity of a heavy petroleum to produce vast numbers of carbon black particles that would be released on the edges of the tropical cyclone in the boundary layer. These carbon black aerosols would produce a tremendous heat source simply by absorbing the solar radiation and transferring the heat directly to the atmosphere. This would provide for the initiation of thunderstorm activity outside of the tropical cyclone core and, similarly to STORMFURY, weaken the eyewall convection.

It concludes with:

This suggestion has never been carried out in real-life.

Real Wx Services question is..

Or has it?

Let me know what you think!

May 1st 2010 Daily Weather Discussion

The high temperature on April 30th 2010 at KABE was 78 degrees. This was about 12 degrees above normal.

Today is essentially going to be divided from west to east but one thing both east & west will have in common is that they will be very warm if not hot. Western areas are going to have partly to mostly sunny skies but with the day time heat and approaching cold front you will run into the risk of scattered showers and thunderstorms..However, I think that for the most part this is going to hold off until either night time of Sunday. On the eastern side its going to be just mostly sunny skies.

Temperatures today are going to be in the 60s to 70s in Maine and Northern New England to the mid and upper 80s and perhaps some 90 degree readings from SNE and points south!

In other words a gorgeous weather day is on tap for majority of the region.