Thursday, October 28, 2010

October 28th Daily Weather Discussion

High temperature October 27th was 72 degrees which was once again 13 degrees above normal for this time of the year.

Today there may be some scattered showers along the western region of the NE..otherwise skies will be generally partly to mostly cloudy across the region.

Temperatures today will generally be in the 60s with 70s from Southern New England SE ward along the immediate eastern seaboard to slightly inland.

Wednesday, October 27, 2010

October 27th Daily Weather Discussion

High temperature on the 26th @ KABE was 72 degrees which was 13 degrees above normal for this time of the year.

Today will be another day which is mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms south of PA may be on the severe side. Perhaps even into SE PA and SNJ but any or most of the severe action should be south of PA.

Temperatures today will once again be on the warm side and above normal. However..that is getting ready to change.. Highs will be the 50s North in Maine to the 70s south with 60s in between.

Tuesday, October 26, 2010

October 26th Daily Weather Discussion

High temperature on Oct 25th was 71 degrees at KABE which was 12 degrees above normal.

Today is going to be a generally mostly cloudy day though there may be some breaks of sunshine from PA and points south..However..there is also a chance of showers and possible thunderstorms as well. Further north there will also be showers and possible thunderstorms.

Temperatures today will be in the 50s in Maine and to the south of there into the 60s and middles 70s once you get to PA.

Indian summer at its finest! Enjoy it while it is here!

Monday, October 25, 2010

October 25th Daily Weather Discussion

High temperature Oct 24th @ KABE was 69 degrees which was 9 degrees above normal for this time of the year.

Today is going to be the first of a few days that we will be experiencing different fronts crossing across the region which will bring a chance of showers and maybe even some thunderstorms to the region. At this point not expecting any severe storms..just your normal garden variety storms possible.

High temperatures will be 40s and 50s to the north with temperatures moderating to the 60s and 70s further south into PA , NJ and south.

Sunday, October 24, 2010

October 24th Daily Weather Discussion

High temperature @ KABE on the 23rd was 64 degrees which was above normal but because of the overnight low the day ended on a negative departure.

From NY on north towards southern Maine there will be a chance of showers and during the early morning hours there could be some higher elevation snowshowers. From PA on south however skies will be mainly on the cloudy side.

Temperature though today will continue to moderate across the area. Temperatures will still be cool to the north where the rain will be occurring with temps in the 40s and 50s. South of that area from about SNY on south we are looking at mid 60s to the mid 70s.

The beginning of what appears to be an Indian summer for several days!

Friday, October 22, 2010

October 23rd Daily Weather Discussion

October 22nd High temperature @ KABE was 53 degrees. This was once again a below normal day but it should be the last below normal day experienced for a few days as temperatures will start to moderate today.

After getting off to a cold start with temperatures starting in the 20s and 30s from north to south..Temperatures will moderate thru the day.

There may be some showers and even some snowshowers again from NNY and isolated locations N and east of there. Aside from that the weather today will be partly to mostly sunny.

Temperatures will be cold in the 40s North however as you head south they moderate to the 50s and 60s from PA into NJ and perhaps even some 70 degree readings south of PA.

Tropical Storm Richard Thoughts

Here at Real Wx Services we were unable to make the call for this turning to a Tropical Storm before it occurred due to the lead forecaster having to be at the hospital for his wifes surgery. Some things just take priority over the weather, especially when it involves health of a loved one.

However. with that aside. Richard was born and since the time of upgrade has not really been able to get his act together and strengthen.

20101022.1845.goes-13.ir.19L.RICHARD.35kts.1006mb.16.1N.81.6W.100pc

We are looking at a latest image of Tropical Storm Richard. As of 18 Z pressure was at 1006 mbs and this may be kind of low considering Recon reports showed pressure at 1010 mbs. So this is not a system that is in a hurry to get its act together and there is some question as to whether or not this will become a hurricane before it starts to interact with land.

So, we like to turn to the environment to see if we can get any kind of clues as to what may happen.

shear

Here we see the anticyclone is actually south of Richard and shear has actually increased to the range of 10-20 knots as of 15 Z (18Z has not yet updated)…This could be the reason that on visible satellite the system is beginning to take on a more ragged appearance.

AOI1_ir_loop

AOI1_wv_loop

Another factor that continues to pose developmental problems for Richard is the amount of dry air and this can be seen on the WV loop above.

Other then the shear & dry air, this system virtually has a favorable environment for developing. Divergence and convergence is decent..the system is in the best vorticity area.

conver

vort

So I think over the next 24 hrs development of this will continue to be relatively slow.

As for track of the system it is currently moving W and should continue to move west and eventually WNW with perhaps potential landfall in Belize..

Stay tuned for further updates on Tropical Storm Richard

October 22nd 2010 Daily Weather Discussion

High temperature October 21st @ KABE was 61 degrees which is normal for this time of the year. Temperatures today however are going to be below normal but then things will begin to moderate there after and be above normal thru the next several days.

However, today will be a different story. There maybe some snowflakes or snowshowers from NE PA into parts of the NE during the early part of the day (overnight hrs into early morning)..otherwise there may be some scattered showers with higher elevation snowshowers/flakes in parts of the NE.

For the rest of PA and points south though the weather will be partly sunny.

Temperatures today will be lucky if they hit 60 and if they do that will be mainly south of the PA/MD border. Elsewhere temperatures will range from the 30s north to the 50s e

Wednesday, October 20, 2010

October 21st Daily Weather Discussion

The high temperature on October 20th at KABE was 59 degrees. This was another day that fell in below normal for this time of the year.

From about PA and points south its going to be a partly cloudy day with the chance some scattered showers thru out the day. However..north of PA there will be a more concentrated area of showers and maybe even some snowflakes in the higher elevations early in the morning.

Temperatures in the 40s north to the 50s further south to about East Central PA and then in the 60s to the south of there from about South central PA into Southern Jersey and south.

Depression # 19 Has Finally Been Acknowledged! NHC will confirm at next update!

20101021.0045.goes-13.ir.19L.NINETEEN.30kts.1006mb.17.6N.81.2W.100pc

We have been saying that this has been a depression for a little less then 24 hours and now even though the wind speed is still the same at 30 KT it has been upgraded!

Once again this is why R.W.S is your most dependable outlet for weather forecasting!

30 KT Invest With Pressure Slowly Dropping-Not sure why it is not a depression!

20101020.1915.goes-13.ir.99L.INVEST.30kts.1008mb.17.1N.82.2W.100pc

The above is the latest image of invest 99 L. At this point and time the NHC has still not called this a depression and a little confused as to why. In this season past they called worse looking systems depressions and even Tropical storms.

Regardless, satellite shows that the pressure has come down to 1008 from 1009 and that the wind speed is 30 KT. This typically would be classified as a depression and if they do not classify soon..there could be a chance that it might not get classified..

There is alot of talk going around the internet about this becoming Richard and not just that but perhaps a hurricane and I have even seen some mention of a major hurricane. As of right now I am not seeing major hurricane status and there is a question as to whether this can become richard..

So lets take a look at the environment and see what 99 L is dealing with.

shear

conver

vort

In short the environment as far as shear, convergence and divergence and vorticity is concerned looks quite decent. Shear is light, anticyclone in its vicinity , convergence decent, best divergence is NE but it still is in a zone of divergence and it is in the greatest vorticity zone. So overall that is a decent environment for development.

However..lets look at some more images..

dry

Dry air..I talked about the dry air heading towards the system as it is relatively stationary. This was dry air from the NW and you can see its approaching the system.

AOI1_wv_loop

However..this loop above also shows dry air approaching from the east which between the two areas of dry air are beginning to act as a squeeze play and this could end up having a negative effect on any development. The system is still relatively stationary and only drifting.

We will see what effect the dry air has on this developing system and continue to monitor and update when necessary! We still feel that this has been a depression since last night despite recognition by the NHC..

Invest 99 L ..This should be a depression now!

AOI1_ir_loop

AOI1_wv_loop

We here at R.W.S at the time of this writing 1:30 AM feel that invest 99 L is currently a tropical depression. Pressure however remains around 1009 mbs but the winds are currently at 30 KT. Its quite possible that National Hurricane Center declares this a depression as this is being typed.

Conditions remain quite favorable for development with an anticylone practically on top of this system. Low shear..decent convergence and divergence as of 3 AM and it has gotten clear from any land interaction.

shear

conver

vort

However..we also have two concerns at present that we need to see how they come into play. While this may be a depression if you look off to the NW you see a wall of dry air heading towards this system. Now..this might not become an issue..however the second concern is that this system is basically stationary but that dry air is advancing towards that stationary system.

So these concerns tie into one another and we will have to watch and see how this progresses as to whether or not this can actually become Richard!

Stay tuned for more updates thruout the next couple days!

October 20th Daily Weather Discussion

October 19th high temperature at KABE was 60 degrees.

Today is generally going to be a partly sunny day ..however areas from NNY and points N along the Canadian border stretching into Maine could still be on the receiving end of some scattered showers. Otherwise partly sunny skies with increasing clouds later in the afternoon..early evening can be expected.

Temperatures to the North will be in the 40s and 50s with 60s from SNE and points southwards.

Tuesday, October 19, 2010

Tropical Season Not Over Yet!

wv-l

The above is the most recent image of 99L. The National Hurricane Center has a 30 % chance of this system developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours.

This will not be the first time that we here at R.W.S have disagreed with the NHC and we will show you why.

First of all the image above tonight is the first time that the system is showing any real type of convection forming and sustaining. Secondly, the shear across this system has lightened up to around 10 knots and there is an anticylone very close to this system.

shear

Another factor to take into consideration is that also the first time since this system became highlighted for developing it has become embedded within decent convergence as well as divergence. Previously it was completely lacking a convergence zone.

conver

Another thing is that there is finally an area of vorticity that the system is actually in for the first time as well. So this also shows that the system is becoming better organized.

vort

All these factors point to a system that is slowly organizing. All these systems also point to the factor that the environment is conducive for development.

AOI1_ir_loop

Currently the system is actually lifting off towards the North NorthWest which means it is actually avoiding interaction with land.

Real Wx Services puts the chances of this developing into a Tropical Depression over the next 48 hours as 50%. This is all dependent on whether or not the system can continue to maintain the convection. If conditions remain the way they are then this very well could be a depression before the day is out.

Stay tuned for further updates on this potential developing situation!

October 19th Daily Weather Discussion

Before I talk about the weather for today..I want to remind the readers of the Real Wx Service Weather Forum where we can actually discuss the weather that is occurring and future weather as well and gives you the readers a place to ask questions and receive answers and a place to forecast as well.

Just Click here and it will take you to the forum. I have plans to make this the greatest forum on the internet but can not do this without more members and with winter fast approaching it is the best time to make this happen!

The high temperature on the 18th at KABE was 57 degrees. This was 5 degrees below the normal high of 62 degrees.

Today will be a wet day in the early part of the day (overnight to about 10 am) across PA and NJ and then as the day goes on showers will diminish and skies may even start to clear across that part of the region. Further north scattered showers will be possible. This will only be a light rain event and its very possible that many areas will not see any rain at all.

High temperatures today will be from the 40s N to the lower 60s south!

Sunday, October 17, 2010

October 18th Daily Weather Discussion

Yesterday was a beautiful day across the area with the high temperature getting to almost 70 degrees..Just shy by 1 degree at 69 degrees.

Today will be a partly sunny day with clouds increasing thruout the day and by late evening towards early morning there will be some showers and rain starting to break out across the region. There may even be some wet snow mixed in across N PA but that would be after midnight monday!

Temperatures will once again be in the 40s North to the 60s southwards ..with 50s in between.

Saturday, October 16, 2010

October 17th Daily Weather Discussion

High temperature October 16th @ KABE was 61 degrees which was three degrees below normal for this time of the year.

There may be some scattered showers across extreme N NY into N NH and N VT into Maine..otherwise today will be a partly sunny day across the region.

Temperatures will be in the 40s in those northern sections where clouds will keep the temperatures down ..the rest of the NE will see temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s and further south in PA the 60s with some lower 70s possible south of PA

Friday, October 15, 2010

October 16th Daily Weather Discussion

High temperature on october 15th @ KABE was 58 degrees. This was 6 degrees below normal for this time of the year.

Today is going to be a partly cloudy day across PA and points south with temperatures in the 50s and 60s. Further to the north in NNY and points N and E there will continue to be a chance of rain with higher elevation snow as well. Temperatures in this area will range from the 40s to the 50s along the SNE coast. It will also be quite windy as well across the Northern area with winds gusting between 30-40 MPH.

Further to the south it will continue to be a breezy day as well with some gusts possible in the 30-35 mph range. So despite temperatures in the 50s and 60s it will once again feel alot colder if you are out and about walking.

Paula Now A Tropical Depression

20101015.0645.goes-13.ir.18L.PAULA.30kts.1008mb.23N.80.7W.100pc

Here at Real Wx Services we feel that as of 5 AM National hurricane Center will come out and say that Paula is now a TD or perhaps even a remnant low. Pressure is up to 1008 and as of 6 Z –30 KT…Shear has taken its toll on this system as it passes to the south of FL along the coast of Cuba.

This will be the last update on Paula!

October 15th Daily Weather Discussion

The high temperature on the 14th of October at KABE was 56 degrees. This was about 9 degrees below normal for this time of the season. Only about .52 inches of rain had fallen during the 14th.

Today is going to be a day where showers of rain are going to continue to effect the region but mainly to the north of PA though further south some showers still could occur. There also will be some wet snowflakes falling over the higher elevations of NY and the NE .

Temperatures will range from the 40s from about NY and points north and 50s to 60s further to the south!

Thursday, October 14, 2010

October 14 th Daily Weather Discussion

High temperature on the 13th was 64 degrees at KABE. The day ended up below normal in overall departure.

During the overnight the rain will start to spread its way east and should be covering the region by about noon time and then we will have rain to contend with all day into the night today. Rain will be heavy at times with anywhere from .50-1.50 west and 1-3 inches further to the east.

Temperatures today are mainly going to be in the 50s north to south with perhaps some 60s from KPHL into NJ…

Wednesday, October 13, 2010

October 13th Daily Weather Discussion

The high temperature on the 12th ended up being 71 degrees at KABE. This was about 6 degrees above normal. However, the weather is just one day away from taking a significant turn for the worst. But before we get to that we still have today to go thru which will be a mostly sunny day across the region with pleasant weather conditions.

However by late evening there could be some showers starting to develop across the western region of MD, PA and NY,,further east clouds will start to build into the region in advance of the developing top story which is the first Nor’Easter of the 2010-2011 season.

Though the temperatures will be pleasant they will not be quite at the levels they were the past two days with the high temperatures today from the 50s north to the 60s south.

Hurricane Paula Thoughts

Up until now I have not covered the development of Paula do to taking the needed time to issue the winter forecast which was issued yesterday. Now that that has been issued it allows me to turn some focus to the tropical system Hurricane Paula.

AOI1_ir_loop

AOI1_wv_loop

Pretty much I think that Paula has gotten to the level of strength that is going to be achievable for the system and from this point on it should start to take a downwards turn. Pretty much the atmosphere ahead of Paul is becoming quite hostile. Shear currently is around 20 knots and is much higher to its N . The best convergence and divergence currently resides NE of the system,

shear

conver

Being that this has been a very tiny microcane or hurricane ..they generally are much quicker at falling apart due to shear. Even moderate shear can be detrimental on a microcane.

This systems other enemy will be the dry air that will be advancing on it.

dry

And finally the land interaction and again because of its small size this will fall apart quite rapidly once it actually begins. I would say about 48 –60 hrs in that frame this system should actually dissipate.

Tuesday, October 12, 2010

First Nor’Easter of the 2010-2011 Season

Perhaps a sign of things to come..If this was winter time this would essentially be called a Saskatchewan screamer. The mid level shortwave this afternoon was located over Saskatchewan and will be dropping to the Southeast. This low pressure area will essentially go over our heads and meanwhile another area of low pressure will develop off and along the mid atlantic coast on thursday. Kind of an energy transfer that you would see during the winter and then this low pressure along the coast will deepen as it moves Northeastward and provide the region with the potential of heavy rain on thursday into friday.

As the storm system pulls away however, high pressure will begin to push in from the west and the gradient between the low pressure and the high pressure will create strong gusty winds for the day on Saturday. Winds could be between 30-40 MPH and will likely be necessary to issue wind advisories.

1114

 

October 12th Daily Weather Discussion

High temperature on October 11th was 77 degrees at KABE which was about 12 degrees above normal for this time of the year.

Today’s weather is going to closely follow the weather of yesterday where we will have mostly cloudy skies with the chance of showers and thunderstorms across the region but as the afternoon winds down they will become much more scattered and isolated then in the earlier part of the day.

High temperatures will range from the 50s north and then to the 60s and 70s south thru MD and 80s south of there.

However..do not get to use to the milder weather as the weather is about to take a turn for the wilder. More on that later today!

Winter 2010-2011 Forecast Released!

 

The winter forecast is actually on a stand alone page on the sidebar of the blog which can always be used as reference to take you directly to the forecast. Being as every time a new post is posted this would go down and eventually off the main page. So the link is on the right hand side.

Winter 2010-2011 Outlook
Presented by : Matt Strouse
Real Wx Services
Created: 10/11/2010
The winter of 2010-2011 is right around the corner and as usual there is a lot of talk going around the internet and also a lot of different forecasts and opinions as well. As is the case with any long range forecasting there are a ton of variables that come into and under consideration besides just the ENSO status. So what this is an attempt to do is look at all the different variables that come into consideration as well as a look at what has been happening and potentially could happen in regards to the winter of 2010-2011.
I will state right from the beginning that confidence in this years winter forecast is low to medium at best due to the nature of the ENSO status approaching uncharted territories.

post-573-077493700 1286641753

The first thing that we wanted to notice is that the MEI or Multivariate ENSO Index is at levels that has not been seen since 1975-1976.  This is what that particular winter looked like.

StMap-Oct1117 25 502169799804

1975-1976 Winter was also a Negative PDO winter. So besides having a MEI at levels not seen since that year we were also running a similar PDO status.  October 75 the PDO was -1.29..while October 2010 has yet to be released…Sept 2010 level was already - 1.61 .  So based on these factors the upcoming winter would have some similar Teleconnection index values making 1975-76 a particular analog year.  The importance of the PDO being negative is that generally when the PDO is negative this keeps the jet stream further to the North.
Another Oscillation Index that needs to be taken into consideration is the North Atlantic Oscillation. When we look back to the 1975-1976 winter we see that the NAO was essentially neutral negative that rose more positive in the last part of winter. The importance of the North Atlantic Oscillation is that when it is negative there is High pressure over Greenland and the downstream effects into the Eastern USA is to have colder air and potentially a trough across the region. However, there is a major difference between the NAO now and the NAO back in our potential Analog year.

nao.timeseries

Since 2009 the North Atlantic Oscillation has been running on the negative side, despite it rising some from being deeply negative it is still quite negative thru the end of September. This could be the one potential wildcard with this upcoming winter season.
Still yet another Oscillation to take into consideration is the Pacific North American Oscillation. This is an important index as well for when it is in its positive state it generally shows a trough along the east coast and a ridge along the west coast in which usually implies colder air in the east and warmer in the west.

pna.timeseries

As you can see there again is a substantial difference between 1975-76 and the current time frame as in the case with the NAO…the PNA is also opposite of what it was during 75-76. As opposed to being negative it has been positive since 2009 as well.
Next oscillation that has a large hand in contributing to the winter weather and weather in general is the Arctic Oscillation or the AO. This is important because when you have a  negative AO it forces the jet stream further to the south and generally supports an influx of colder air into the eastern USA… and when we look at this teleconnection historically we find it also stands opposite and in stark contrast to 1975-76 when the MEI was at the same levels as 2010 is.

month.ao

So when one looks at the above teleconnections in there current state thru September of 2010 this would create a very positive outlook for the winter of 2010-2011 because a Negative NAO , Negative AO, Positive PNA would all lead to a very cold winter across the Northern Half of the USA and the Northeast. It would stand in complete contrast to what 75-76 winter shows above and you can see the reasons why . Teleconnections are very important when it comes to long range forecasting and even the shorter term weather.
In addition to these connections above there is also the QBO which is the Quasi Benniel Oscillation. The QBO which was negative and deeply negative has switched camps and has gone positive and currently is + 6.58. This generally is not very good for winters…however…one of the Analogs had a positive QBO and that was 75-76 winter.  So I am not sure how much of an effect this is going to have on the winter at this point. Some times a positive QBO during the winter with a La Nina can lead to a warm winter nationwide.
However… there are more things we need to address and look into before we can even begin to put across the forecast for this winter.
Another aspect that we like to look at is the SST’s along the east coast.

anomnight.10.11.2010

What we currently see is the Atlantic Tripole effect off the Northeast coast which is an area of warmer water and colder water followed by an area of warmer water. This type of set up is common during warm AMO periods.
This is important as seasonal variations now start to play a key role, as during the winter and springtime, this belt of cold water sets up a strong temperature gradient with the warmer water to the south, resulting in a strong baroclinic zone along the gradient which pulls the subtropical jetstream to the south, creating a positive feedback with the negative NAO. This has favored lower-than-normal pressures in the northeast Atlantic during the winter and spring months. Its quite possible that this will play an important role in winter 2010-2011.
Still yet another thing that has to be taken into consideration is the Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover.

nhtime-4month

As you can see the black line indicates the last 4 months current to the 10th of October and it pretty much shows that the snow cover is just ever so slightly above climatology normals. This also is important as the better the snow cover the easier to build up a cold source of air to tap into and bring south into the USA.
Something new that we are looking into this winter season is the relationship between an active hurricane season and winter. Is there any correlation between the two occurrences?
While we currently stand at 16 named storms with the recent birth of Paula ..we are going to look at a list of the top ten named seasons for cyclones and then look at the following winter. I am not going to include seasons with 21 storms or higher because I do not believe that is going to be obtainable but we will look at seasons with 19 Max and 15 min as that is the range covered in the top ten outside two years above.
That list is as follows:
1995 -19 storms
1887 -19 storms
1969 -18 storms
2008 - 16 storms
2003 -16 storms
1936 -16 storms
2007 - 15 storms
2004 -15 storms
2001 -15 storms
2000- 15 storms
Now we will look at the following winters:
In order to be considered since this Winter Season will be a La Nina we will only include them if they were La Nina.
1996

StMap-Oct1118 42 516515197753

1970

StMap-Oct1118 54 023438720703

2001

StMap-Oct1119 01 193823547363

2008

StMap-Oct1118 58 432547607421

So when we look at the only four years that were La Nina winters following 4 of the top ten hurricane seasons with named storms we find that we also while in a La Nina winter have a cold out look across much of the nation. Now whether this has any type of correlation to winter or not it is indeed quite interesting and something that is being factored into the equation.
So thus far what we are looking at is recent past weather history since 2009 has been showing a rather + PNA, -NAO and -AO ..with snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere at normal to slightly above and 4 of the top 10 hurricane seasons as far as named storms all pointing to a winter that would be pretty much normal to colder then normal across much of the USA.
However…a look at this past summer shows that we had to contend with a strong SE ridge.

StMap-Oct1119 05 560416870117

This created some very hot weather across the eastern USA . Do any of the other years look anywhere close to this past summer? 1995 was pretty close.

StMap-Oct1119 09 021498107910

No two analog years are ever going to be quite complete or identical because each season despite teleconnections being similar the weather patterns can be different. The summer of 2010 featured a stronger SE ridge then what the summer of 1995 consisted of. So this brings us to look at the weather patterns that seem to be developing as of late as the final factor in deciding the potential outlook for the winter of 2010-2011.
In the first 120 hours of the  global guidance we see a pretty potent NorEaster that could be effecting the Northern Mid Atlantic and the Northeast. In the latter part of the run we see another pretty potent storm but this one stays off the coast at this point a good distance. So while September was a month with mainly warmth and zonal flow ..October is starting to take on the appearance of the trough along the east coast and ridge out west..

MonthTDeptNRCC

MonthTDeptUS

So with all the above discussed it is basically time to throw the pieces of the winter puzzle together.
The winter of 2010-2011  should feature a mainly negative NAO though from time to times it will fluctuate to the positive side. When it fluctuates to the positive side we will experience times of warmer weather . I think this will fall around mid January to mid February as to when  we could experience the positive NAO and January thaw!  With the pattern seeming to pretty much be switching gears to potential Noreasters it leads me to the conclusion that winter may actually start early across the North and the northern mid atlantic and that parts of the NE may see flakes in the month of October yet as well.  Winter could come in fast and furious in the month of November leaving a very cold December in its wake.
I also feel that the PNA should also remain relatively positive ..though at times it also may go negative  and we would experience that warmth.  The PDO will remain pretty much on the negative side and like explained earlier that normally means that the jet stream would be further to the north but this year we have the Atlantic Tripole effect and I think this will end up being a wild card and will help to pull the colder air further south then what would be normal with a negative PDO. This would be because of the effect of the NAO as explained also up above.
If one were to use Analogs as there years it would essentially be a combination of 1975-76 winter and the year of 1995-1996.  So with all the above in mind… this is the Real Wx Services 2010-2011 outlook for across the USA.. Verification will be done after winter is over…

 

2010 2011 Winter Temperatures

2010 2011 Winter Precipitation

Monday, October 11, 2010

October 11th Daily Weather Discussion

High temperature on the 10th was 70 degrees which was slightly above normal but the overnight low was 34 degrees..this left the day on a negative departure overall.

A cold front is to the north of the region and this will actually drop down south and stall across the region thru the early part of the day (overnight hours) ..then there will be several waves of low pressure that move across the area between now and tuesday and this is going to create the chance of showers and thunderstorms across the region.

Some of the storms may contain strong gusty winds and hail along with very heavy rain.

Temperatures will be in the 50s from Maine in to Central NY , 60s to 70 in SNE and the 70s thru the northern Half of PA and into the Northern Half of new Jersey and then south of there in the high 70s to lower 80s. So its going to basically feel like a late summer day across the region with diurnally driven thunderstorm potential.

Sunday, October 10, 2010

Invest 98 L ..Just How Favorable Are conditions?

wv-l

The above is 98 L . National Hurricane center has this at a 60% chance of development due to an environment conducive to developing. So its important that we look at its environment.

The following is as of 6 z

shear

conver

vort

dry

Several things to notice. Shear is at a current level of 20-30 knots across the region with decent divergence but no convergence and the best convergence is NE of the invest. The vorticity is stretched out and elongated from N to South and there is quite the abundance of dry air to thr NW of the system as well as to the south of the system. These factors above are not quite conducive for development.

Another factor against development currently of this system is the MJO which is actually in phase 5..Better known as tropical killer.

phase.Last90days

So, if there is going to be any development of this system it will be extremely slow to occur.

Global models actually keep shear quite high around this system and the ECM for example never even really develops invest 98 more then a very weak tropical system that gets sheared out and decoupled and essentially dissipated.

More continuous updates and more about the winter ahead starting tonight after 1 AM …