June 1 st Severe Weather Potential

We issued this map back on the 28th and we see no reason to steer away from what we had thought back at that timeframe for tomorrow.

That particular days outlook talked about the heat building in on the southerly flow and how the subtropical ridge was going to make things hot out in advance of the approaching cold front.

So lets take a look at the latest severe weather parameters:

CAPE is anywhere from 500- 6000 depending on where you are located.

Lift Index is 0 to –8 depending on where you are located

EHI is highest from about East Central PA into the Northeast where it goes from 1 to 2+ the further north one goes into the Northeast.

SWEAT index is around 400 in the same areas as the EHI is found .

Weather synopsis

Subtropical ridging that is still in place will begin to break down for this forecast period. A trough over parts of Canada is going to move slowly south east into the Northeast. At the same time another trough will be lifting off the pacific on to the west coast. So essentially the weather chart would look like trough on the west ridge in between with a trough into the Northeast.

Meanwhile in response to this synoptic set up a powerful cold front is working its way across the country. If you look at the latest surface map

You will see where this cold front is located. on the map. Now, currently as of today..the front has been relatively moisture starved as you can see on the current radar..

This is expected to change in the overnight hours as we should get more of a moisture flow return.

Generally speaking here is what we are expecting. Showers and thunderstorms should develop between 8 PM and 2 AM across the ohio region into the Lakes  and then they should begin to move to the ESE and begin to move thru western PA from the NW dropping to the ESE thru the rest of the region by wednesday 18 Z.

Because of the SWEAT and EHI in the locations we mention above we can not rule out the isolated Tornado . However, main threat of any storms is once again going to be hail and winds in excess of 60 MPH.

Stay tuned for more information should it become necessary!

May 31st Severe Weather Potential

Looking at the severe weather parameters across the region..we are finding some pretty high #s as far as CAPE is concerned when it comes to the NAM 12 Z or 18 Z model run. The map as always is based on a blend of the NAM/SREF and this time some GFS has been incorporated as well.

CAPE is anywhere from 500-6000 depending on where you are located

Lift index is anywhere from 0 to –12 with a small pocket of –14

SWEAT is below:

Energy Helicity Index

So from the parameters above of EHI & SWEAT we could have the potential of tornado’s in those regions.

Weather Synopsis

Essentially across areas of the east we have a subtropical ridge in place and this is providing the region with sunny & hot and dry weather. However ..there should be a couple different closed lows that influence the weather across the area as they move around the subtropical ridge.

Low pressures currently located over the rockies will split. One piece will move southeast and be located over south central KS by 2 AM while another piece of energy moves off to the NE . By 8 AM one low pressure will be north of the dakotas in south central canada with a cold front trailing southwards. It is this cold front that will be advancing east and will serve as a focal point for storms to form in front and along.

Now, out ahead of this cold front is a warm front that will be moving thru the mid atlantic and the Northeast. Parameters in this area are excellent for severe weather ..however..shear is weak and there is not much forcing and moisture return is also lacking with the 700 mb level fairly dry. Any storms in this part of the region will be more isolated and be more related to day time heating. Overnight tuesday night could be a different story but since that would be after midnight we will talk about that in our Wednesday outlook tomorrow afternoon.

The main primary threats from the storms will be large hail and strong straight line winds. However, with the EHI/SWEAT at decent levels tornado’s can not be ruled out.

Stay tuned for more information

5/29 Severe Weather Verification

Original Outlook

Severe Prediction Storm Center Reports

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May 30th Severe Weather Potential

The above map is once again based off the latest NAM/SREF along with a portion of the GFS.

CAPE 500-4000 depending on your location

Lift index is 0 to –8 depending on your location

SWEAT Index is 450 and this is essentially in the region that spreads from TX north into Wisconsin/Minnesota region

EHI is highest above 1 to as high as 2 from all of Iowa but the eastern southeast portion into central Minnesota and central Wisconsin . This area should have the greatest threat for tornado potential in isolated locations.

Weather Synopsis

Notice the spinning over the Rockies? This is a closed low and upper level trough. The trough will take on a negative tilt and this will send the closed low up thru the Northern plains tomorrow.

Low pressure this evening over the Rockies region with a stationary front extending ENE to a low pressure over southern Canada above Maine. As mentioned this low pressure over the rockies is going to lift off to the NE over the Dakotas lifting a warm front north. While over the NE a back door cold front will be dropping into the area.

The passage of this backdoor cold front could trigger off some isolated severe weather with its passage though it should be mostly a starved for moisture type frontal passage. However, since there is some decent CAPE in place ..along with the day time heating we could see some scattered storms in that area.

Its possible that for the region mentioned above with the highest EHI that a high risk could be needed. Stay tuned for more information!

Increasing Heat & Increasing Severe Potential June 1st!

There is absolutely no doubt when looking at the guidance over the past couple days , including today that we are headed into a time period that will consist of “Hot & humid” weather.

The problem that comes to this type of weather pattern is if you have an air mass that is hot and humid and above normal you run the risk of severe weather. Before we get to the severe weather potential lets look at the heat

As you can see guidance is suggesting that with the warm southerly flow that temperatures are going to be in the 80s to 90s all the way into the Northeast. So folks first and foremost be prepared for some hot weather over the next couple days.

Now, lets look at the 850 mb level maps that show you where the low pressures are located and anticipated to track..

Now lets look at the ECM for the same time period..

Now as you can see both models agree in an area or low pressure over the Dakotas with the GFS just slightly deeper and that area of low pressure moves towards the ENE into Southern Canada North of the Great Lakes.

So you ask what is the big deal? Whenever you have an air mass that warm out ahead of a setup like this…associated with this area of low pressure will be a cold front and watch what happens. First at the 850 mb level..

Notice the drop off from +20 to only + 6. GFS is not that much different from the ECM other then the timing is different.

Notice the drop as well in agreement with the ECM or European computer model. So the upper levels of the atmosphere are going to cool off significantly ..what about the lower levels at the surface?

Notice the highs are only in the 60’s,70’s range. So we are looking at a significant drop in temps at the surface as well.

So the heat builds in, low pressure moves ENE drags a cold front and all that is needed is severe weather parameters in place and the area is looking at a severe weather outbreak. With guidance in agreement on the pattern it seems that the potential for a severe weather outbreak is quite likely on Wednesday.

At the current time we are looking at severe parameters in place as follows: (Yes these will change for those that may wonder)

CAPE 500-5000 depending on your location

Lift index is 0 to –10 depending on your location

SWEAT from 400 –450 in the NE from central and eastern PA into the NE

So with all the above and the ECM also in agreement we feel that with confidence we are able to issue a preliminary map for wed for severe weather.

Now we realize that the specific parameters are likely to change between now and then but the map is more based on the synoptic set up as described above so we do not think we will have to make to many changes to the zone itself but as we get to tuesday we will narrow down the most likely area to receive the greatest severe weather threat so you know what to expect the day prior!

Stay tuned for further updates on this pattern !

Severe Weather Potential May 29th

The above outlook is based on the latest blend of the SREF/NAM.

Severe Parameters across the the region are as follows:

CAPE: anywhere from 500-4000 depending on where you are located

Lifted Index is anywhere from 0 to –8

SWEAT index is highest from Iowa south/southwest into TX. Which is between 400-500

Energy Helicity index or EHI

Looking at the map above for the EHI in tandem with the SWEAT being allocated in the same region-that part of the region should be the greatest severe weather threat with the potential for isolated tornado’s.

The one caveat to this potential is once again over the southern regions where there is some very dry air in place, especially in the 700 MB level. This could act as a CAP to the severe potential in those southern areas. If the CAP can be broken the parameters are indeed in place for wind/ and or hail. So the southern areas even though they are in the severe zone are more the equivalent to a “see text” area and will have to be monitored.

Upper level trough currently located off the west coast visible via satellite (click here)  will move into the Rockies area during the day on Sunday.

Meanwhile guidance is showing a strong jet streak of 100 knots accompanying the base of this trough at that time.

By 00z tomorrow evening we should have an area of low pressure over the four corners region with a cold front extending to the southwest. Another area of low pressure should be over SW Kansas with a stationary front running ENE to a low pressure system over the great lakes. It is this front that the most activity should occur along or just to the north of it. This front will begin to lift north then in the overnight hours and this could provide the opportunity for areas further north from what we have shown to receive some rainfall along with isolated severe weather. However, since that essentially boils down to the timing of a front we have decided to monitor that area.

The main threat from any storms that develop will be primarily wind or hail except for isolated tornado potential in the areas indicated above via EHI. Do not be surprised if it takes some time for storms to initiate in some parts do to the CAPPING in place.

Stay tuned for more information and any updated map in case guidance would change.

The Heat Is On! Is that the only thing ahead?

When we look at guidance for the early part of the week we have to turn to the 850 temps. When we do this we realize that guidance is suggesting that its going to get ‘Hot & Humid”! Guidance is indicating that temperatures at the 850 level will be in the +15-20 degree range. This means at the surface temperatures are going to be between 80-90, perhaps higher in some parts.

So lets look at 120 hours out on the models from 12 Z

The above is the ECM . Lets look at the GFS..we are going to use the ensemble means because the images from the operational were not available:

Aside from the usual timing issues at day 5-7 you can see that the guidance is in agreement on ridging moving into and across the central part of the US and into the east. However what happens? Lets watch..

European computer model is suggesting that there is going to be a strong cold front that knocks the temperatures at the 850 level from + 15-20 to about +6-8. What about the GFS?

As you can see the GFS also suggests the same thing. So the two main models are in relative agreement.

So essentially what we are looking at on the guidance as far as synoptic setup is as follows:

Temperatures out ahead of the front and associated trough will be in the 80-90 degree range!

Temperatures behind the front will be some 20 degrees cooler

Upper trough ejecting from the west to the east over top of the ridge

Surface low deepening as it moves into the Dakotas with trailing cold front…

Though we are not going to depend on any type of parameters the models have in place at this time ..if the guidance is correct we could be looking at a severe weather outbreak starting in the mid west into the southern regions and then heading towards the east into the Northeast.

Essentially if the right parameters fall into place ..with the kind of temperature drop indicated ..we could be looking at an explosive situation. Sort of like a keg of dynamite waiting for the spark to the fuse!

Stay tuned for more information!

May 28th Severe Weather Potential

We are going to start this out by saying that the key word here is potential. One of the problems despite the parameters in place is going to be the lack of moisture return. This stems from the 700 MB level being dry, in particular from about OK south. So while the severe parameters are in place this could CAP the region.

So lets look at the severe parameters.

CAPE is 500-5000 depending on your location.

Lift Index is 0 to –8 depending on your location

SWEAT index is 400-500 from E OK into Southeastern and Central KS to NW ARK, almost all of Missouri into Central Illinois!

EHI is above 2.5 in eastern OK then stretching into Central Missouri. So this region identified by the SWEAT and EHI above have the greatest potential ate severe weather including the potential for Tornados.

Weather Synopsis

By 00z this evening an area of low pressure will be located near the OK/TX border. From this low is a stationary front that stretches to the east and then north to another area of low pressure over southern Ohio. This front continues then ENE to another low pressure over SE Canada.

By 18 Z Saturday one area of low pressure will still be in place over OK ..however an impulse will break off and start to move ENE while lifting a warm front across the region. The low over southern OHIO will lift off into Southern Canada just west of NY State lifting the warm front thru the NE. This will bring some “Hot” weather into the NE and even though this low pressure area is weakening with weak instability it could cause some isolated severe reports in parts of the region from PA to Maine.

Overall we are not expecting this to be a very severe potential but rather “a potential” . With the dry air in place it may take till evening time to initiate storms especially in the southern areas of the zone.

Stay tuned for more information should it become necessary!

Verification for the 26th

Original forecast

Verification

We feel that with all the reports in the east pa to central NY area a moderate risk would have been justified. At first we could not understand why more tornado’s were not reported but then we realized that the lack of stronger shear was really the culprit of that occurring.

Never the less a widespread area of severe weather reports and we missed a handful. However, considering that we only issue for the most part one map we consider that a well done job. The zone could have been spread a little more to the west but all and all not worth complaining about!

May 27th Severe Potential

 

We have three different areas for severe weather potential outlined today! One in the Northeast, One in the Southeast and one in the south central part of the USA. These severe zones are based off the latest runs of the NAM/SREF.

Severe Weather Parameters

CAPE is 500-3500 depending where you reside in the zones...

Lift index is 0 to -8 depending where you reside in the zones

SWEAT index is 400 or above from east central PA into SNE and then again in eastern OK

EHI  is above 1 in SNE area

Based on the parameters above the greatest risk for tornados would be in SNE and then isolated in eastern Ok

 

 

Shortwave trough moving across the south will move up thru eastern PA during the afternoon. You can cleary see this S/W and trough on the satellite above.

The South central part of the severe weather will highly depend on whether or not the CAP in place can be broken! So this is really a low risk area however with a warm front developing in the area which will cause warm air advection in the lower levels to break out and in addition to that strong day time heating it may be enough to break the cap. With the NW flow aloft it would appear as if hail would be the biggest threat. Unless as pointed out in E Oklahoma where the better SWEAT is there could be a potential for isolated tornados.

Across the SE into Florida we are mainly looking at day time heating storms with light shear in place of 25-30 knots and some decent CAPE values in place. Also steep lapse rates on the order of 7-7.5 could attribute to scattered Severe Thunderstorms that would fade out after the daytime heating starts to erode away!

All and all while we are expecting severe weather in three different areas ..tomorrow will in no way be as active as the past several have been!

Enjoy the weather as its the only weather you got! Be very careful if out and about in the heat . It is very easy to get heatstroke in this kind of heat!

Severe Weather Potential May 26th

Wanting to get this out as soon as possible . We are anticipating that tomorrow may indeed end up being another significant severe weather day with perhaps a moderate risk to be issued across parts of the region highlighted on the map. Normally our weather outlooks for severe weather consist of a blend of the latest NAM/ SREF. This time it is a blend of the latest NAM/SREF/GFS/ & ECM.

Severe weather parameters are pretty much thru the roof on the latest NAM across Central to Eastern PA. CAPE values of 4000-5000. Other areas cape is 500-4000 depending on your location.

Lift index is 0 to -12 with the most negative over east central PA

SWEAT index is 350 across western PA at 15 Z or 11 AM by 2 PM it is 450 in central PA and by 5 PM it is 500 in east central -NE pa into central NY which could also be included in a moderate risk.. By 8 PM it is back to around 400 in the previous areas where it was 500.

EHI is lower to the west but as much as 1.5 to 2 across eastern PA..

All indications are that there will indeed be storms across western PA that will be severe but they potentially could grow in strength as they head into central and eastern PA and with parameters that are shown , I can absolutely not rule out tornados occurring from central Pa into eastern PA. If guidance is correct with these parameters we could be in for a wild ride tomorrow.

Stay tuned for more information ..we also may issue a new map tonight after 00z guidance comes in!

Made an update to the map based on the 21 Z SREF and 00z NAM. No changes or thoughts to the thinking behind the first map.

May 25th Severe Weather Potential

The above severe weather outlook is brought to you by Real Wx Services! The above outlook is based on a blend of the NAM/SREF (latest runs)

CAPE is anywhere from 500-5000 depending on where you reside.

Lift index is 0 to -8 depending on your location

SWEAT index is below. Instead of describing where the greatest values are with this particular day & event it will be much more easier to show the image and anywhere where you see values of 400 or greater would be potential for tornados.

EHI is also below

With EHI anything above 1 is tornadic potential . So based on the EHI you can see locations like western KY (Elizabeth a shout out to you because this is your area) Western TN (Lyndsey this is your area so a shout out to you) . Along with the Tornado potential will exist winds in excess of 60 MPH and large hail.

Residents in western Pa , (Jen Metz this is a shout out to you) look like the most that they would be dealing with is the potential for strong winds in excess of 60 MPH and the possibility of hail. If the GFS is correct there could be some tornado warnings issued but because it is a lower resolution model and not a high res model if there would be any tornado's the probability would be low and it would be very isolated.

All indications are that we are going to be looking at another widespread outlook across the Southeast into the Southwest.

Weather Synopsis

A potent shortwave trough is in the process of deepening and ejecting into the southern and central plains. Meanwhile by 00z this evening there will be a deep area of low pressure over south central KS. Guidance is in agreement on this area of low pressure developing and the deepening of the upper level low. This will cause a warm southerly flow out and ahead of the advancing cold front.

By 00z low pressure over KS will have moved off towards the east along with the cold front and by this time the cold front should have gone thru the central Part of Tx. Spreading severe chances into the NE part of TX. The low pressure will be situated at that time over NW MO and another low pressure over NW indiana.

Summary we are expecting tomorrow to be a widespread severe outbreak and would not be surprised to see the moderate area that SPC has replaced with an area of high risk. It should be a very busy day!

Stay tuned for more information and stay tuned to your media outlets!

Updated Severe Weather Potential for May 24th

We have made some slight changes to the map issued for tomorrow so this is an updated version based off the latest NAM /SREF. The most noticable change is to extend the severe zone into and along the coast of the Northeast and to extend it further west in OK , KS, Nebraska!

No changes to the discussion.

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Severe Weather Potential May 24th

The above map is a blend of the NAM/SREF . Another day where we are pretty much at odds with the severe prediction center. We do not see areas of central and western PA having a severe weather threat at this point in time. More along the lines of garden variety type storms with heavier rains possible.

Severe Parameters:

CAPE: 500-5000 depending on your location

Lift Index is 0 to -10 depending on your location

SWEAT index goes from 500 to 600 from about the location of the line in TX extending into central and eastern Ok up into central and eastern KS. From there an area of 400 from eastern TN in a west to east line to the east coast. These areas once again will be the areas with the greatest potential for tornados.

EHI is as high as 2.5 and that would be from North Central TX into the aforementioned areas as well as SW and West Central MO & NW Ark . So these areas would also be proned to a higher chance of tornados with the Parameters that are in place.

Dew Points in the lower 70s and Shear of 50-70 KT

These parameters in place will be sufficient to bring severe weather potential of large hail , winds to 70 mph and tornados , highest risk, places mentioned above.

Weather synopsis

Satellite (click here)

If you go to the link above you are going to notice a potent S/W trough that is moving towards the ESE out on the west coast. This is currently located over the southwestern part of the US or the southern rockies and it should eject into the plains states tomorrow. This trough ejecting east ward will also cause heights to the east of it to start to fall. This synoptic set up along with a LLJ of 80-90 knots should cause severe thunderstorms to break out along the dryline.

Areas of eastern PA and south along the coast could experience severe weather in the form of winds and hail. However, in PA the parameters are not all that impressive so the greater chance would be to the south. We will monitor this area for any changes. The cause of that potential severe weather will be the day time heating along with a shortwave trough ejecting east from the Ohio Valley area. The greatest threats in the south like TN , KY and points east will also be wind and hail.

Low pressure that is currently over the Northern Tx Ok panhandle will by this time tomorrow evening be located over south central KS. In addition to all the above there is a cold front that is draped from that low that extends to the East and should be moving thru N Central PA and most of the NE all but the immediate coast by about 00z. This could also serve as a trigger for isolated storms into the NE region that are not depicted on this map because at the present time the Parameters there are not too strong.

Stay tuned for more information as we continue to watch and monitor the entire progress of this system. The areas mentioned above for tornados could very well see widespread tornados. If you live in those areas stay tuned to your local media outlets and as always if a storm approaches you with a tornado warning on it seek shelter immediately!

Updated Severe Potential For May 23rd

We have decided to leave the map is for the most part with the exception of two things:

1. We have included a small portion of western PA in the severe zone. The reason for this is that the NAM has now increased EHI to 1.5 across that part of the state. SWEAT however still remains low. The main threats in that region should still be hail and wind damage but we will not rule out an isolated tornado.

2. We have made the red zone a isolated potential zone. In other words the parameters are not the greatest across the region but with the warm front moving thru it could trigger off some severe weather.

Our main disagreement ATM with Severe Weather Prediction Center is them having the slight risk too far to the east. A couple reasons why we disagree with it ..If you look to the satellite image above, You will see the clouds are pretty well entrenched across areas of E PA into the northeast. This area also remains on the eastern side or the cooler side of the slowly moving warm front . So, at the present time we feel that if any severe weather were to occur it would be isolated.

Stay tuned for further updates should they become necessary

Severe Weather Potential May 23rd

 

 

The above image is based off the NAM/SREF ensembles. I have this theory that if something works well, then keep using it We mentioned that today (sunday) was going to be the start of a more wide spread severer weather outbreak and looking at the reports from today so far with just under 6 hrs to go you can see that is definitely the case.  http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html

So lets move on to tomorrow Monday the 23rd. We will do this the usual way by listing the parameters first and then we will move into the discussion on the weather synopsis.

CAPE is anywhere from about 500-4000 depending on where you are located. For those that are in Western Pa (Jen Metz :)) that particular region has up to 1500 CAPE.

SWEAT index as high as 600 and again that is near where the dry line should set up in TX. Other areas across Central into and towards Eastern TN are around 450 . Western PA the SWEAT index is only around 250-300.

EHI is anywhere from 1.5 near the dryline to 2 northwards into oklahoma then an area of 1 stretching east thru central Ark and ENE thru western into central TN.  From there we move to eastern KY with EHI of 1.5-2 into SW  W VA with 1-1.5. From there we have an area of EHI of 1 from Central PA into western PA and then another area of 1 from E Md stretching down to the south into the region that we have marked along the east coast in the severe zone of 1-1.5.

All these areas with the EHI potentially could see Isolated tornado's but we have decided to hold off on the area in red because the EHI while supportive of tornado's , is not supported by the SWEAT index. So we think at this point places like Western Pa for example ..could end up having severe weather in the form of winds and hail but these storms in the red zone at this point and time we do not think will be as severe as the yellow zone. Again it will be a widespread outbreak and we will continue to monitor the red zone for another cycle of guidance and if need be update the map.

Weather synopsis.

Currently there is a low pressure area over central minnesota. An occluded front goes east and then south and then bends back towards the southwest to another area of low pressure over the Tx panhandle. Dry line extends South/Southwest from the low over the Tx Panhandle.  The low pressure over Minnesota will press off to the NE during the day tomorrow . This will allow the frontal system to move every slowly east wards.

Meanwhile another S/W will be ejecting east ward from the west coast and this will move into the OK/TX region. This impulse however will not be the last impulse as this is going to be out ahead of the main trough that is over the west coast. That trough will be slower to eject.

By tomorrow evening 8 PM we will have an area of low pressure over the OK Panhandle and the area of low pressure that was over C Minnesota will have moved off to the Northeast North of the Lakes with the front trailing back  to the southwest thru Northern Indiana and central IL and then extending back SW to the low pressure.

So, all in all, yes its going to be another day of widespread severe weather with the potential for more tornado's if the EHI that is being suggested by the guidance is correct but the worst area for the looks to be central to eastern Ohio . However..we will continue to monitor the latest guidance and update you if necessary!

As my mentor would say..Enjoy the weather its the only weather you got!

May 22nd Severe Weather Potential

This outlook map is different from the standard outlook map that we issue. The yellow color is the severe weather zone and the red shading is area that needs to be monitored a bit more. Explain further down.

Lets look at the severe weather parameters & once again we will be mainly blending the guidance of the NAM/SREF.

CAPE is anywhere from 500-4000 depending on where you reside

Lift Index is anywhere from 0 to -8 depending on where you reside

SWEAT index is as high as 600t this is in parts of Tx into Central Ok. So this area could be considered an area for potential tornado's based off the SWEAT along with the other parameters in place.

EHI -based off the EHI we could add E OK, NW ARK, SW Missouri with an EHI at around 2 to 2.5. We can also add into that list western Ky into North and western TN as they are around 1 to 2 on the Energy helicity index. So those last to locations of TN & W KY would be more isolated.

Weather Synopsis

As guidance shows us there will be a broad upper level trough situated over the central part of the USA. We have been talking about this trough with each and every severe weather outlook. Currently there is a low pressure over south central KS with an occluded front bending north and then towards the NW to a low pressure over SW North Dakota. From the low pressure over KS there is a weak cold front extending to the southwest of that low.  There is also a warm front in this complex frontal system thru eastern Iowa bending southeast towards eastern TN. By tomorrow evening this warm front will continue to lift north and east and be located over SW Ohio with a vertically stacked area of low pressure over Minnesota (central) with a front trailing down to a low pressure over the panhandle of Tx.

In addition to all the above will be the mid level lapse rates which will be quite efficient at 7.0-8.0. This in combination with day time heating along with dewpoints in the 70 degree range and shear of at least 40-50 knots , CAPE values of 4000 and the upper level trough should trigger off more in the way of widespread severe weather.

Now the reason that there is an area of red and has to be monitored for another cycle of guidance is because the Mid Level Lapse rates are lower then the other area in yellow. Also there is less shear..So at the present time this area may see severe weather in the form of winds and hail but it will all be dependent on those two parameters. Parameters such as CAPE in those areas is anywhere from 500-2500 so it is lower CAPE and lower shear and midlevel lapse rates as present guidance is showing. So we will monitor that region for possibility of being included in the yellow zone. However with lack of SWEAT and lack of EHI those areas would not have to worry about a tornado risk..though we always say that one can not be ruled out and this could be the case over the Carolinas where the SWEAT is at 400.

There is the potential for more severe weather after this but we feel in order to be the most accurate because alot of people depend on us for there weather that we should only take it one day at a time, especially considering that once you go beyond 1 day you start getting into the guidance not agreeing with the overall set up etc.

Stay tuned for more information and we will keep you updated as necessary!

Severe Weather Potential May 21st

 

The above image once again is based off a blend of the NAM/SREF.

What looks like the start of an increasingly wet & stormy pattern is just beginning to get on its way . Guidance is continuing to suggest that it could be a stormy wet period from the region higlighted above eventually moving to the east. By sunday there could be quite a large area of convective precipitation and this could last thru the week ahead. However lets look at the severe weather parameters in place for tomorrow:

CAPE will be anywhere from 500-roughly 4000 depending on your location

Lift Index will be from 0 to -10 depending on your location

SWEAT index any where from 400-500 which indicates that tornadic activity is possible .

EHI or Energy Helicity Index is below:

The areas with the highest EHI would be the best areas as far as tornadic potential. So this would be NW ARK, SW MO, E KS and Eastern OK.

Weather synopsis:

Upper level trough will be ejecting from the western states towards the Great lakes region while one area of low pressure moves northward thru the Dakotas and another low pressure forms along the front by 8 AM over western Oklahoma. Attached to this area of low pressure over OK is a stationary front that extends NE and then bends back NW to the low pressure over the Dakotas. Also a warm front extends to the east and then southeast.  Southwestward from the low in OK is another stationary front. Dry line should set up essentially where we have the severe line going thru Tx. This warm front will make slow progress towards the NE.

Meanwhile the closed low that has been plaguing the mid atlantic and northeast will finally begin to move away and this will allow the start of southerly flow from the warm front advancing Northeast to move into the region. This will also result in height rises in what should result in warmer weather and a nice day across the region.

Once again the greatest threat from any storms that develop during the day on saturday will be winds and hail, with isolated tornados possible but not guaranteed.

Stay tuned for further information should it become necessary!