July 1st Severe Weather Potential

Several pieces of energy area over the Rocky Mountains with a cold front stretching north into Canada to a low pressure area in central canada and a warm front extends south from this same low in canada.

This warm front will be pushing towards the east during the day tomorrow while the pieces of energy over the Rocky Mountains move towards the ENE. So that by tomorrow evening low pressure will be over Central Minnesota which will drag a cold front across in its wake. This frontal system and the associated low pressure system and trough will be the focus for severe weather.

Further to the south in the SE these storms could result because of a stationary front along with the daytime heating.

Severe Weather Parameters

CAPE is around 500-5000 depending where you are located

Lift Index is 0 to – 10 depending where you are located

SWEAT index is below:

EHI is above 1 from Wisconsin into Upper Michigan. These locations are also showing decent SWEAT as indicated above so there is the potential for a few tornado’s in the super cellular storm mode. The main threats though should be large hail and damaging winds in excess of 60 MPH.

Across locations like Ohio, Indiana and Illinois..while there is some decent parameters in place..Models are actually showing a lack of low level moisture. So it is quite possible that this region could remain CAPPPED all day. However..if the CAP were to break with the parameters in place then we would be looking at the potential for severe so they have been included in the zone outlook.

Stay tuned for further information should it become necessary!

June 30th Severe Weather Potential

Starting off with the severe parameters in place across the region highlighted above:

CAPE is actually pretty impressive with ranges of 500-6000

Lift index is 0 to as low as –12 depending where you are

SWEAT is as high as 550 basically across the eastern half of north and south dakota into Minnesota

EHI index is as high as 3.5 and this covers the above same areas as the SWEAT and it also extends into the northern half of Iowa

Weather Synopsis

Low pressure currently located North of NY state in SE canada. From this low is an occluded front with a cold front off the east coast that then turns into a warm front that heads back west before heading north to a low pressure to the North of eastern Montana..in Canada.

Meanwhile a shortwave trough will be moving out of the rockies towards the Northeast . While at the same time another low will be dropping southeast from Canada. The same low that is currently just to the North of Eastern Montana.

Any severe weather that occurs we think will occur towards evening.

A hinder to the severe potential as well, despite the excellent parameters would be a CAP across the region. This is why we think it may take until evening time for severe weather because it will take low level heating to break the CAP.

Greatest threats will be large hail and winds in excess of 60 MPH..though with the SWEAT and EHI combination above we can not rule out a tornado or two in those locations.

Stay tuned for any further updates should it become necessary!

Invest 95 L

Since yesterdays update conditions surrounding the tropical wave have vastly improved. There are still a couple issues and we will point them out as we go along here.

First on the conditions that have improved. The wind shear has dropped to 10-20 knots which is workable for development. Ideally , you would want to see the shear drop into the 5-10 knot range.

Convergence and divergence have also improved as the COC (center of circulation ) is in decent convergence and divergence.

Those are the improvements that have taken place over the last 24 hours or since the last update. National Hurricane center has this at a 50% chance of developing to a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hrs.

Now there are a couple issues that we can see ..first of all when you look at a satellite loop of the invest it appears that there could be multiple circulation centers. This makes sense when one looks at the vorticity

System remains very broad in size. This has actually over the last three hours become more broad in nature. This could be attributed to the next problem that we for see..

While shear is decreasing and convergence and divergence is more favorable..dry air is on the increase and getting pretty near the center. This could be why the system is becoming more broad in nature because its starting to take on some dry air.

So the two main things that are working against this system is the dry air and its broadness in size. The larger the system the more difficult it becomes to tighten up its circulation and in this case “multiple” circulations.

Because of the problems mentioned above we can not agree with the National Hurricane Center and we would put the chances of this developing in the next 24-48 hrs at 30%.

As far as movement the system should continue to move off to the WNW as it will follow the steering currents. We feel at this present time that this will pose no threat to the USA but would pose a threat to Mexico.

Whether this develops or not it will still provide some heavy rains and squally weather in the locations where it does indeed impact.

We will continue to watch this and update as needed!

June 28th Severe Weather Outlook

Pretty much so far , Monday the 27th has been a slower then anticipated day for severe weather. Many would count that as a good thing with the amount that has happened since severe season began.

Many people were talking across the internet that tomorrow , Tuesday the 28th was going to be a very bad day across the east. We just do NOT see that happening and we have NOT seen that happening since the medium range.

Models are not that impressed with tomorrows severe weather chances whether that would be the GFS/NAM/SREF/ECM. The problem we had talked about is first of all the timing of the front and second would be the cloud cover that would be in place to hinder severe weather chances.

If you go to the satellite you can see the low level clouds that are moving towards the area.. click here for satellite

SWEAT across the region is relatively low with only a small area above 400 and that would be in western Nebraska to Eastern Colorado , very small corner of NE New Mexico and the oklahoma/Tx panhandle area. That is about the only region with SWEAT above 400 around 18 Z . By 00z it does go above 400 areas further north in a narrow corridor from the dakotas (western sides) south thru the same areas mentioned above and with western Ok.

EHI does not really get above 1 in any given location

CAPE is about 500-3500 across the zone above

Lift index is 0 to -8 depending on your location in the zone..

Weather Synopsis

Currently there is a low pressure to the north of the great lakes and from this low pressure extending from this low is an occluded front with a warm front extending south and then to the east that will be making its way across western PA by about 2 AM. This warm front then extends to the east to the south of PA ..actually south of MD. Low pressure also just west of west TN and this is connected to a cold front leading to the low further north and then to another low back off to the southwest over North central Tx.

If you remember from a couple days ago when we put the discussion out for the 72 hr period we mentioned timing of the fronts. There just is not going to be that much time between the two fronts. For example:

Warm front lifts thru western PA between 6 Z and 12 Z and in Eastern Pa it lifts thru between 12 Z and 18 Z and then stalls north of ABE over NE PA. Meanwhile the cold front comes thru between 12 Z and 18Z in western PA and in eastern PA it is already approaching by 8 PM. So there is not that much time in between for day time heating to occur and then factor in cloud cover with convective debris overnight it appears that the best bet for locations like PA from west to east will indeed be some scattered showers and garden variety type storms with just isolated chance at a severe storm with hail or wind.

We have not been impressed for days and that thinking has not changed any!

June 28th Severe Weather Outlook

Pretty much so far , Monday the 27th has been a slower then anticipated day for severe weather. Many would count that as a good thing with the amount that has happened since severe season began.

Many people were talking across the internet that tomorrow , Tuesday the 28th was going to be a very bad day across the east. We just do NOT see that happening and we have NOT seen that happening since the medium range.

Models are not that impressed with tomorrows severe weather chances whether that would be the GFS/NAM/SREF/ECM. The problem we had talked about is first of all the timing of the front and second would be the cloud cover that would be in place to hinder severe weather chances.

If you go to the satellite you can see the low level clouds that are moving towards the area.. click here for satellite

SWEAT across the region is relatively low with only a small area above 400 and that would be in western Nebraska to Eastern Colorado , very small corner of NE New Mexico and the oklahoma/Tx panhandle area. That is about the only region with SWEAT above 400 around 18 Z . By 00z it does go above 400 areas further north in a narrow corridor from the dakotas (western sides) south thru the same areas mentioned above and with western Ok.

EHI does not really get above 1 in any given location

CAPE is about 500-3500 across the zone above

Lift index is 0 to -8 depending on your location in the zone..

Weather Synopsis

Currently there is a low pressure to the north of the great lakes and from this low pressure extending from this low is an occluded front with a warm front extending south and then to the east that will be making its way across western PA by about 2 AM. This warm front then extends to the east to the south of PA ..actually south of MD. Low pressure also just west of west TN and this is connected to a cold front leading to the low further north and then to another low back off to the southwest over North central Tx.

If you remember from a couple days ago when we put the discussion out for the 72 hr period we mentioned timing of the fronts. There just is not going to be that much time between the two fronts. For example:

Warm front lifts thru western PA between 6 Z and 12 Z and in Eastern Pa it lifts thru between 12 Z and 18 Z and then stalls north of ABE over NE PA. Meanwhile the cold front comes thru between 12 Z and 18Z in western PA and in eastern PA it is already approaching by 8 PM. So there is not that much time in between for day time heating to occur and then factor in cloud cover with convective debris overnight it appears that the best bet for locations like PA from west to east will indeed be some scattered showers and garden variety type storms with just isolated chance at a severe storm with hail or wind.

We have not been impressed for days and that thinking has not changed any!

EHI is

Tropical Discussion June 27th 2011

We are soon to close out the month of June and to date we have not had one named Tropical system. While this is not unusual per say it is a slower start then I would have liked to see. Perhaps one reason why it’s a slower start is because of the SAL or dry air across the waters.

You can see coming off the coast of Africa there is a huge amount of dry air. This makes it difficult for tropical systems to develop because they are not able to breathe.

Never the less we have an AOI (Area of Interest) that the National Hurricane Center has put at a 20% chance on development over the next few days. So we are going to take a look at that and see what current conditions are like.

Presently it seems like the center of this system is pretty far south and it is over land. So with it being over land this really puts a hinder on any development anytime soon.

The above is a current wind shear map and you can see that this AOI is in an area of about 20-30 Knots of shear. Shear this high is not conducive to development..

This image above is the shear tendency map. And as you can see right now this AOI is not in an area of declining shear but an area of increasing shear. So again, we feel that this will keep this system from being able to develop anytime soon.

Convergence around the system is pretty marginal as the center seems to be located in between the best areas of convergence and divergence is not favorable either at this time.

Finally, the current steering winds would suggest that this system should head off towards Mexico and not the USA.

So at the present time we think that this system would be slow to develop if it will develop at all. Some other factors to take into consideration is if you look at the shear tendency map you see a high increase of shear in the USA over the central part of the country. This is associated with the cold front that is dropping to the southeast. So as that cold front drops to the southeast that shear is also going to be pushing to the southeast and that could just continue to prolong the present high shear across the AOI.

So presently we are placing this at only a 5%-10% chance of developing.

We will continue to monitor this for any future development.

June 27th Severe Weather Potential

Severe Parameters

CAPE 500-400 depending on where you live

Lift Index is 0 to – 8 depending on where you live

SWEAT is below:

EHI is at 1 or above from the eastern half of Illinois, Western half of Indiana into Western TN/Western KY and SE Missouri.

Weather Synopsis

Low pressure currently over central Nebraska and another low pressure over central South Dakota. From the low over Nebraska is a stationary front running west to east to just off the southeastern sea board. These low pressures are going to lift off towards the east northeast and will try to push a warm front towards the Mid Atlantic region but is expected to stay south of the PA area thru the day tomorrow.

This warm front along with the cold front that will be dropping east southeast will be the focal point for severe storms across the outlook zone.

We are going to wait for tonights 00z runs before we highlight the region that will stand the greatest chance of tornado’s. Currently if we were to highlight and area it would be the Indiana/illinois/Ky region.

Stay tuned for more updates!

June 26th Severe Weather Outlook & Further Thoughts!

Alright we are going to walk you thru here what we think is going to happen over the next couple days. And we will follow this post up with the severe outlook for tomorrow.

First off lets look at the current synopsis as of 18 Z. Low pressure off the coast of Maine with a cold front off the coast and then it trails back west to a area or low pressure over the Ok/Tx panhandle. This front draped across the south is being a focal point for some showers and thunderstorms along it. We had talked about this last night for todays outlook.

Over the next 12 hours or so this cold front that is off the coast is going to become stationary. And the low pressure over the OK/Tx panhandle area will move slowly east. At the same time there will be another area of low pressure that is currently over Eastern Wyoming that will begin to move east as well across the northern plains over the next 24 hrs.

So by tomorrow evening we have one area of low pressure now located over South Dakota with another low pressure over central Kansas. The stationary front will extend to the east from the Kansas low and another area of low pressure will develop over the Southeast over GA with the stationary front going along the east coast.

Now by 8 AM monday morning here is what should be occurring. The low pressure that is over South Dakota is going to begin to drop to the east south east and should develop a warm front extending east towards KY with a cold front to a low over South Central Ks. This will cause showers and thunderstorms to break out across parts of the region. Along and east of the front.

Now, by monday night we should see low pressure over Northern Indiana and a warm front will start pushing into PA..and a cold front extending to the south and southwest back to an area of low pressure over Northern Ok and the cold front continuing west to another wave over NE New Mexico.

There will probably be an area of showers and thunderstorms associated with the warm front entering into PA overnight monday but we are not expecting anything severe at that time. Just garden variety.

Now here is how we think its going to look on tuesday morning. High pressure should be located off the Northeast coast with an area of low pressure above the great lakes and from that low an occluded front with a cold front branching off south and then southwest and a warm front running from NW PA south southeast into SE PA and off the coast thru central NJ. There should be a low pressure over Southern Missouri and another low pressure over Ok all attached to that cold front.

This cold front should be well thru the east coast by Wed morning.

There is a lot of talk about severe weather in the east on Tuesday. Problem with that is that right now it appears as the warm front is going to have a hard time making it into the Northeast. The way it is progged now by guidance is the warm front would not be coming across the area until between 2 PM and 8 PM with the cold front following and thru the region by wednesday morning.

Essentially what this means is that there is not going to be much time between the passage of the warm front and the passage of the cold front and guidance is suggesting that there will be showers and thunderstorms with the passage of the warm front. So this likely will not leave enough time for sufficient day time heating to occur before the cold front moves thru.

So what should start out on Monday as a decent severe weather episode in the Midwest into the Southeast ..will not be able to acquire the same vigor into the mid atlantic/NE region if the guidance is correct.

So with the above all out of the way and what to anticipate over the next couple days lets look at the severe parameters for tomorrow.

CAPE will be 500-6000 depending on where you live!

Lift Index will be 0 to – 8 depending on where you live.

SWEAT index will be 400 or above from the Southern  part of MN to SE South Dakota thru most of Iowa to all of Missouri, NW Ark, to Central & eastern Neb, KS and OK.

EHI is above 1 and as high as 3 from mainly Central & Western Iowa to NW Missouri to Central and Eastern Nebraska, It is these areas with the highest EHI and the higher SWEAT combination that have the higher risk of tornado potential.

June 25th Severe Weather Potential

The above outlook is based on the latest NAM/SREF and GFS,

Lets look at the severe weather parameters...

CAPE is 500-4000 depending on where you live...

Lift Index is 0 to - 6 depending on where you live

SWEAT index is above 400 in eastern Kansas into Central and Eastern Missouri

EHI is above 1 in central and eastern Missouri

Low pressure is currently north of the Great Lakes. A complex frontal system is associated with this low pressure and currently a cold front is in the process of cross Eastern pa. This cold front drapes south and then back towards the west and turns into a semi stationary front with a low pressure over the Tx/Ok Panhandle. It will be this front that will serve as a trigger for the potential for severe thunderstorms. However there will also be another frontal system dropping SE ward from the Canada while the low pressure /trough moves eastwards.

The main threats appear to be large hail and wind though an isolated tornado can not be ruled out in the Missouri region.

Stay tuned for further information should it become necessary..

June 24th Severe Weather Potential

The above outlook is based on the latest NAM/SREF. Lets look at the severe weather parameters that are in place.

CAPE is anywhere from 500-3500

Lift index is anywhere from 0 to –8 dependent on where you live in the zone outlined above

SWEAT index..is 400-500 from Nebraska and Kansas into SE colorado , as well as South Dakota.

EHI is above 1 from South Central TN into Northern Sections of Alabama and Mississippi.

Weather synopsis

Low pressure currently over michigan with an occluded front to a low pressure area off the SNE coast. From the low over michigan extending Southwest is a stationary front which will slowly be moving towards the east in the shape of a cold front. Timing looks as though the cold front will pass thru E PA in the overnight hours friday night.

Meanwhile this stationary front extends back to an area of low pressure over NE New Mexico and this stationary front with low pressure could spark off some showers and thunderstorms along the front.

With the SWEAT & EHI being supportive of tornados we can not rule out some tornadic activity but overall we feel the main threats will be hail and winds in excess of 60 MPH.

The low over Michigan should lift off to the ENE and this is going to keep showers and thunderstorms around the mid atlantic into the Northeast but majority of the action away from the coast should be more of the garden variety type.

Stay tuned for further information should it become necessary

June 23rd Severe Weather Outlook

Currently we have a low pressure over CT. From this low pressure extending back west is a warm front, semi stationary to a low pressure over Wisconsin. Trailing from this low is a cold front which then turns into a warm front as it trails back west to a low pressure over the TX/OK panhandle. By afternoon the cold front will be approaching western PA.

Once again the models are not to impressed with the severe weather chances especially with areas along the east coast. It is these frontal systems that will be responsible for showers and thunderstorms developing.

So lets look at the severe parameters

CAPE is 500-3000 depending on where you live

Lift Index is 0 to –6 depending on where you live

SWEAT index is highest again in Western TN into NE Arkansas at around 400, and then back over E Montana

EHI is above 1 from all of TN into South Central KY and then along the carolina coastline.

All and all we are not anticipating a potent severe outbreak. The timing of the front across places like western PA for example will probably limit that area to getting some NON severe thunderstorms and rain in the morning hours.

With activity expected to move across the region in the overnight hours ..once again this could put a hinder on the severe weather probabilities!

Stay tuned for more info

June 22nd Severe Weather Potential

We are now under 24 hrs and the SREF continues to be not too impressed over all with the severe weather potential for tomorrow. The NAM also is over all not that impressed as well and the GFS is not out yet at the time of this writing because we want to get this out before the 22nd actually starts.

Normally we would start off with the severe parameters but this time we are going to do things backwards and take a look at current conditions because the outlook above hinges on what is happening presently and how long it lingers.

First a look at the current infrared satellite! As you can see by the above there is expansive cloud cover from the great lakes heading into the PA region and to the south east of there with some breaks to the southwest. Underneath these clouds is the following:

You can see these clouds are causing for the most part now some rain and garden variety type thunderstorms across the region.

Currently there is a low pressure over Southwest Minnesota and extending from this low pressure to east just to the north of PA is a stationary front to a low pressure over the central NY/PA border. Another low pressure is over N Va.A cold front is also extending south and then southwest from this low cutting the state of Illinois in half and then cuts back into TX pretty close to the Abilene Tx area. The southern part of that cold front near Abilene is causing a Squall line to occur currently.

The low pressure area over Minnesota will slowly advance towards the east before starting to drop to the southeast and should be located over the Iowa/Wisconsin border by 8 PM. This will cause the cold front to move towards the east and the warm front to basically straddle across NE PA with a low pressure developing almost over the NNJ/NYC vicinity.

It will be this cold front and the warm front that would serve as the focal point for showers and thunderstorms to develop.

Now, the wild card is that this low pressure that will be moving east and then dropping east is going to be weakening. Also in addition to this is the current cloud cover and precipitation that is going to be moving thru in the over night period could really put a damper on any severe chances especially east of say Ohio because it the overnight convective rain and garden variety storms will help to stabalize the air and with the cloud cover in place..if it does not burn off quickly we will be left with just rain and garden variety thunderstorms.

So, there are variable factors and equations at play here and this is not a sure fire outlook in the sense of a good part of the region could just end up with garden variety thunderstorms and heavy rains.

Now, closer to the low pressure system over Minnesota we feel will again have the best chances for severe so this would be in the zone from Ohio /indiana region and then right along the actual cold front.

So with that said lets now look at the parameters in place..

CAPE is anywhere from 500-3500 depending on where you live!

Lift Index is anywhere from 0 to – 6 depending on where you live.

SWEAT is generally under 400 everywhere with the exception of Extreme SW TN and NE Arkansas to North Central ARK

EHI is highest above 1 to about 1.5 from Western TN back into the same areas of Arkansas listed above.

So that is the latest and we will continue to watch and monitor and make any adjustments if necessary.

For summary we think the greatest threats are going to be wind and hail and tornado’s will be isolated with the low pressure weakening and with all the current convection potentially putting a damper on the overall threat.

June 22nd Severe Weather Thoughts

We have decided that we are holding off on issuing a severe weather map for tomorrow at this point and time. Reason being is tomorrow will be dependent on what occurs with the current activity. Guidance from what we have seen so far today is not overly impressive with severe chances tomorrow.

Current thinking does not go to far astray from what we mentioned about today. The greatest chances for severe weather are going to be once again closer to the area of low pressure.

We are going to monitor the situation for another model cycle and continue to watch the radar. Thinking is that the current activity now will be moving across the Mid Atlantic into Ohio region in the overnight period with rain and garden variety type thunderstorms and depending on how long this lingers and how much cloud cover is in place -this will have an effect on where any severe weather may occur.

So we will issue the map sometime tonight before midnight.

New Data in on 00z Model Runs for June 21st

Previously guidance was not showing much in the way of Energy Helicity Index other then in isolated pockets nothing had gone above 1. With the 00z guidance this has all changed.

Area from NW & Northern Arkansas to Eastern Missouri is now above 1. Then from SW Wisconsin into SE Minnesota and extreme NE Iowa are now also above 1. So these locations may end up seeing some “potential” tornadic activity!

Stay tuned for more info should it become necessary!

June 21 Severe Weather Potential

The above outlook is based on the latest NAM/SREF/GFS.

Lets take a look at the severe weather parameters that will be in place across the zone.

CAPE will be 500-3500 across the region..

Lift Index is 0 to –8 across the region..

SWEAT index is a large area of 400 + across virtually all of the zone until you get to Eastern Ohio and points east . In eastern Ohio and points East into Western PA (shout out to Jen Metz) the SWEAT index there is less then 300.

EHI is relatively low across the region.. Only isolated pockets approach 1

Lapse rates are about 6.0-7.5 across the region..

With the SWEAT being high across most of the region we can not rule out a few tornado’s , however with the EHI being low they should be more isolated. We will monitor this for any future changes in the EHI.

Weather Synopsis

Currently low pressure is located over Eastern Nebraska. A stationary front extends east from that low to NE ohio at which point it then curves south southeast to a low pressure off the Mid Atlantic coast.

This low pressure should lift into Southern Minnesota by tomorrow evening @ 8 PM or 00z. There is also a cold front extending southward from the low over E Nebraska. and by 8 PM it should be just about thru Iowa and then still trailing back to the southwest approach eastern TX.

It is these frontal systems along with the area of low pressure moving NE that will be moving thru the severe weather parameters in place across the zone.

Now the one thing that could come into play and is what we are currently thinking is that the worst of the severe weather would be closest to the area of low pressure. As you can see by the cloud cover above these low hanging clouds can keep the area from being able to obtain the most out of the day time heating. So its quite likely that the further you are away from the area of low pressure the more likely that it would be just rain with garden variety type thunderstorms. This would most likely be the case from Eastern Ohio and points to the east in the zone above.

We will continue to watch and monitor things to see if we have to make any type of adjustments to this thinking!

Early Warning Signs for Future Abuse

As we previously stated last evening we have taken up a cause that is important to us here at Real Wx Services. In addition to the weather we are going to be providing information from time to time on abuse to females.

Why is this so important? Its important because almost every single one of us knows someone that is being abused. It is important because human lives are at stake. It is important because no matter how “bad” the victim may be in life , she never deserves to be hit by a man.

We need to support these individuals and we need to let them know that there is help & protection & a better way!

We posted an image last night which is the newest addition to the products available thru the online store. A portion of the purchase price of the Anti Abuse products will be donated to Lehigh Valley Turning Point here in Allentown Pa.

We hope that you will not turn your eyes from what is happening but instead become partners with us by helping this very worthy cause. Below is information on warning signs :

by A. Browne
excerpted from When Battered Women Kill
distributed by the Duluth Domestic Abuse Intervention Project

Many of the behaviors that society socializes women to interpret as caring, attentive, and romantic are actually early warning signs for future abuse.

1. Intrusion
He constantly wants to know your whereabouts, who you were with, where you were going, when you are coming home.

Examples: constant phone calls, showing up at a friend's house unexpectedly

At first this makes you feel missed and cared for, but in actuality, these are signs of his suspicion and distrust.

2. Isolation
Spending all or the majority of your time alone together, cutting you off from friends and family, making fun of any activities, books or clubs you are interested in.

Examples: calling friends "sluts," "stupid," or other derogatory names, discouraging you from keeping in touch with family, discouraging you from doing activities apart

This makes you feel wanted and needed because he devotes all his time to you. Actually, this cuts down on your resources (friends and family), so when you really need them, they may not be there.

3. Possession and Jealousy
Constant accusations of sexual interactions with anyone in your life (teachers, bosses, counselors, friends, etc.), accusing you of flirting, monitoring what you wear, how you wear it, how much makeup you put on.

Examples: "I want you to be all mine," "I don't want any other guys looking at you," "You look like a whore with all that makeup on."

This is treating you like an object, not a human being.

4. Prone to Anger
Easily angered, quick mood changes, unpredictable behavior, anger out of proportion to the incident.

Examples: his anger is directed toward a pet, possessions, objects -­ he might kick your dog, tear up some of your pictures, you show up five minutes late and he is overly angry.

It is important not to ignore what may seem like small overreactions. It is not acceptable for someone to use aggression to get a point across. Just because men are almost expected to be more violent, it does not mean it's OK.

5. Unknown Pasts and Respect for Women
Do you know about his past girlfriends, his family upbringing, his relationships with his mother and other women? How does he refer to women ­ "bitches," sex objects? Does he respect any women in his life? How do his friends look at women? Does he believe in stereotypic male/female roles?

Example: "Women are good for only one thing," pinching your body parts when he knows you don't like that.

It is important to take the "mystery" out of his past, by talking to his ex-girlfriends. Be in touch with your feelings -­ how do you feel when he degrades women? By degrading women, he is also degrading you.

Some clarification Needed On Hurricane Outlook

It has recently come to my attention that some people are misunderstanding things that have been said in my Preliminary Outlook for the Hurricane season. First I have the hurricane season mentioned as May thru the end of November..

Weather fact if you look at the chart above…you can see that the named systems are really low at the May 1st marking but start to climb more as we get towards June. Of course this is based on averages over a set period of time but this is why I state May thru the end of November.

Matter of fact if you want to get technical Tropical cyclones or hurricanes can occur any time thru out the year.

For example: March 7 1908 the Atlantic had a hurricane…Dec 31 , 1954 also had a Hurricane Alice.

So , as you can see from above people are very misinformed when it comes to the weather and if they do not know weather history and facts they should study the subject a little more diligently before they say that we do not know what we are talking about.

Now the next matter of clarification also comes from the preliminary outlook and it’s a matter of people not understanding what was said and why..

This was stated in the outlook…

“.this latest winter was still acting more like an El Nino ..then La Nina “

This apparently has caused confusion.. First of all lets look at what a La Nina winter typically is ..

Notice the La Nina winter and how it shows temperatures being warm from about PA south into the south Central region? Well lets look at the actual results from the winter..

Wow do you think that looks warm? Does that temperature profile look like a La Nina across the region from PA and south into the south central area? Not at all its much closer to an el nino look where they have equal chances in that region.

So now look at that statement above again. This past winter did indeed verify more like a El Nino temperature profile wise then a La Nina but that is not the same thing as saying:

1. This past winter was an el Nino. Simple fact is that I started off saying that we were in a La Nina..

2. This does not mean that every characteristic of the past winter was like an El nino. Simple fact was this discussion actually started on a weather forum and I incorporated that statement as an example , but those who followed the discussion knew it was referring to the temperature profile only.

Further more for clarification of how the hurricane outlook was derived we looked back thru history to winters of the year before active hurricane seasons that were El Nino that transitioned to a La Nina. In the case of referencing the hurricane outlook and winters that means for example:

Winter 2009-2010 was an El Nino winter that transitioned to a La Nina Summer. Very cold nation wide winter..which was followed by a above normal Hurricane season. So we went back thru hurricane history and looked for the same type of pattern in the past which occurred during + AMO years  and negative PDO phase and came up with a list of years and then based the forecast off of that.

Simple fact is when you are in a + AMO phase you have more active seasons and its been a working theory that we have been using here that the winter before ties into the following hurricane season.

So, while it may be a theory being tested and not something tried and true –the end results will not be known until after this hurricane season.

This is why if you do not understand something because of lack of weather knowledge or just not understanding what is being talked about to ask the person that wrote the discussions before saying an outlet does not know what they are talking about!

June 20th Severe Weather Outlook

The above outlook is based on the latest NAM/SREF . Lets take a look at the latest severe weather parameters across the outlook zone.

CAPE is 500-5000 depending on where you live

Lift Index is 0 to about – 8 depending on where you live..

SWEAT index is 400-500 from Western Illinois into all of IOWA into Central and Eastern Nebraska to 550 in NW missouri ..to 400 in NW Ark and stretching southwards all the way into Tx .

There is also an area from Central KY to Eastern TN stretching Southeast from there into Central and Eastern GA.

Energy Helicity Index is highest above 1 essentially covering the same areas as above but you can also include the central parts of Illinois and subtract GA out from the EHI.

Satellite image above shows a strong  low pressure moving thru the Rockies area. This low will move NE across the central Plains on Monday!

The focal point of the action is going to be a low pressure located over eastern CO with a stationary front extending west to east to a low pressure off the east coast. This low will be over E Nebraska by 00z  or 8 PM monday evening causing the warm front to lift towards the NE serving as the focal point for development of storms.

This is an usually strong trough and system for this time of the year and its going to be taking on a negative tilt..So this is something that we are going to have to watch carefully as there could be the potential needed for a high risk across parts of the outlook zone tomorrow concentrated around the Iowa region, but not limited to exclusively Iowa.

Stay tuned for more information

Real Wx Services Anti Abuse

There is nothing that brings more tears to our eyes at Real Wx Services then the abuse of females. Or for that matter males. But lets face facts …there are more females abused then males.

Lets look at some statistics from 2011

• Every 9 seconds in the US a woman is assaulted or beaten.

• Around the world, at least one in every three women has been beaten, coerced into sex or otherwise abused during her lifetime. Most often, the abuser is a member of her own family.

• Domestic violence is the leading cause of injury to women—more than care accidents, muggings, and rapes combined.

• Studies suggest that up to 10 million children witness some form of domestic violence annually.

• Nearly 1 in 5 teenage girls who have been in a relationship said a boyfriend threatened violence or self-harm if presented with a breakup.

• Everyday in the US, more than three women are murdered by their husbands or boyfriends.

• Ninety-two percent of women surveyed listed reducing domestic violence and sexual assault as their top concern.

• Domestic violence victims lose nearly 8 million days of paid work per year in the US alone—the equivalent of 32,000 full-time jobs.

• Based on reports from 10 countries, between 55 percent and 95 percent of women who had been physically abused by their parnterns had never contacted non-governmental organizations, shelters, or the police for help.

• The costs of intimate partner violence in the US alone exceed $5.8 billion per year: $4.1 billion are for direct medical and health care services, while productivity losses acount for nearly $1.8 billion.

• Men who as children witnessed their parents’ domestic violence were twice as likely to abuse their own wives than sons of nonviolent parents.

Folks this is a real concern across the world and in particular America. The sad fact is that it could be someone that you know and they just will not tell you!

So what we have decided to do is create a new image and product. My wife agreed to pose for the photo because this is something that she feels strongly about as well!

The image has been placed on products in the Real Wx Services online store which can be found here by clicking below:

Click Here For Online Store

So here is what we plan on doing. For each product of that design that is sold we are going to set aside a portion of the purchase price and donate it to the following organization against domestic violence in Allentown PA

Turning Point Of The Lehigh Valley 

We hope you will join us in this fight and help us to stop the violence. Over the days ahead we are going to be posting information that will help those that are abused and those that are trying to help those that are being abused!

June 19th Severe Weather Outlook

The above map is based off the latest NAM/SREF blend. We feel it may be necessary to clarify an issue in regards to the maps that are made.

1. If an area is expected to be mainly garden variety type storms with just isolated severe (less then a handful of reports) then we are not going to include that area in our maps.

2. If an area has excellent severe parameters but is in a CAP situation we are going to include that area in case the CAP is broken. Because if that CAP breaks and with the parameters in place then severe storms would rapidly develop. We feel that it is better for people to be aware that in case that happens  then think there is not a slight chance at all.

3. The severe zone is the region where the severe weather should occur. If you think of SPC they issue a “see text” area which is generally for 5%. We do not place percentage zones because if you have a 5 % chance of a tornado for example, that means there is a 95% chance you are not going to see any! So we feel its better to place a zone that should capture ALL the severe reports. Sometimes this works out excellent and other times it misses reports because the area that guidance is suggesting should be “isolated” ends up over achieving.

So..with that said and out of the way lets look at the severe parameters for tomorrow.

1. CAPE is from 500-6000 depending on where you are located

2. Lift Index is anywhere from 0 to –12 depending on where you are located

3. SWEAT index is above 400 from Eastern Ok to western Arkansas and stretching into eastern Ks and western Missouri and then into southern Nebraska and extreme SW Iowa.

4. EHI is also above 1 in those same general locations above.

5. Lapse rates across the area are at about 7.5 so they are sufficient for severe weather.

6. Shear is roughly about 25-35 knots which is marginal. Generally we like to see anywhere from 40 or above .

Weather Synopsis

A deep trough is going to be moving from the western region into the plain states on Monday.

Currently low pressure is over Virginia and there is a cold front working its way across the state of PA and the NE. This cold front is responsible for the isolated severe in the NE and the scattered showers and thundershowers in the region. We talked about this yesterday. This cold front will push thru the region in the overnight period and the low pressure over VA will move ENE to a position off the delmarva by afternoon tomorrow.

Several pieces of energy are going to be advancing from the west towards the east and keep the chances for heavy rain and severe weather from the plains states into the southeast as well as the south central part of the US. The first now is over E KS and will lift ENE and be over IOWA by 18 Z tomorrow. This should cause the warm front to lift up towards Upper MI region and send some showers and thunderstorms into that region. Parameters are not strong across the area so we think that it would be more an isolated situation with more in the way of rain and garden variety storms.

This low pressure then is expected to start to move off to the east south east so by tomorrow evening it is over western Indiana. This should keep the progression of the warm front from lifting North into the great lakes and  more or less spare the Great Lakes region any severe weather.

This low pressure will then continue to advance ENE and should be located over NW ohio overnight tomorrow night causing a warm front to begin lifting into Western PA and could have some showers break out across that part of the state.

Overall its going to be one piece of energy after another ..kind of like a wave train that will be progressing from the west to the east which is going to keep things quite active and potentially wet for the severe weather zones.

June 18th Severe Weather Potential

The above outlook is based off the latest NAM/SREF . Lets jump right into it.

CAPE is 500-5000 depending on where you live.

Lift index is 0 to –10 depending on where your live.

SWEAT is below :

EHI is above 1 from western KY to Western Tn to Central TN and then from Southern Missouri to NW Ark to Eastern Ok.

Shear will be 25-40 knots across the region

We have been talking about multiple pieces of energy that will be ejecting from the west into the midwest and plains region. The ridge that has been in place will flatten and begin to push eastwards..

Low pressure is located over Northern Va ..Meanwhile there is also a low pressure over Eastern nebraska with an occluded front stretching northwards and then west to a low pressure over South West Central Canada. Extending from that low pressure area is a stationary front that stretches to the east to a low pressure that is over SE Canada to the north of NY State. This low pressure will begin to move east across southeast Canada and what this will do is begin to drop a cold front into the Northeast during the day tomorrow. This could provide showers and perhaps even isolated storms Northern New england into Southern New England.

Meanwhile, elsewhere , the low pressure over Eastern nebraska is going to lift to the ENE and be over Iowa by 18 Z or 2 PM with a cold front extending south to another low pressure that will form over Tx. By 00z or 8 PM the low over Iowa will begin to drop to the southeast. The CAP in place over TX should begin to weaken with the development of the low pressure and showers and thunderstorms should break out in TX into Eastern Ok.

Stay tuned for more information if it should become necessary!

June 17th Severe Weather Outlook

The above outlook once again is based off the latest NAM/SREF blend. We are going to take a look at the severe weather parameters in place and then we are going to take a look at the thinking behind the map.

CAPE is anywhere from 500-5000 depending on where you reside across the area.

Lift index is anywhere from 0 to - 8 depending on where live in the zone area.

SWEAT index is highest at 400 or above from TX (Cati K) thru ok in Missouri and Eastern Kansas and Eastern Nebraska..

EHI index is above 1 and basically covers the same areas as above but we stretch the area into Southern Iowa, Southern Indiana and Southern IL.

While the area in TX/OK have these high SWEAT and EHI indexes they are going to essentially be CAPPED in the 700 MB level due to being very dry! So while we have included them in the severe weather Zone that really is only if the CAP can be overcome and we can get some moisture return!

Weather Synopsis

Currently there is a low pressure area located over MI with a complex frontal system that goes east and then SW to a low pressure over South Carolina. From that low a front trails back to multiple pieces of energy over the rockies. This low over MI is going to push ENE and this is going to cause the frontal system to move thru the NE and this is what is bringing some isolated reports of severe weather and the rains to the region today into tomorrow.

Meanwhile we are going to be experiencing these pieces of energy ejecting with there associated troughs and fronts from the west to the ENE and this is going to keep a very unsettled pattern going across much of the region.

Due to the SWEAT and EHI being high in some locations we can not rule out an isolated tornado but the main threat from any storms will be gusty winds (in excess of 60 MPH) and large hail.

Stay tuned in case any further information were to become necessary and as always enjoy the weather -its the only weather you got!

June 16th Severe Weather Outlook

The above outlook is based on the latest NAM and the latest SREF. As is usually the case we will take a look at the latest severe weather parameters in place and then take a look at the synopsis behind the map.

CAPE is 500-4000 depending on where you are located...

Lifted index is 0 to -8 depending on where you are located..

SWEAT is 400 or above from Central and Eastern parts of Nebraska and Kansas, thru most of ARK, all but the NE corner & then the western half of Missouri

EHI is highest above 2 in Kansas from the NW corner to the SE corner ..drawing a slanted line from corner to corner going thru the central part of the state.

Low pressure is currently located over the northern part of the indiana/illinois border. Another low pressure is over central Minnesota. A cold front extending SW from the low near the Indiana/illinois border and a semi stationary front extending SE to a low pressure over the FL/Ga border. And then a cold front back to a complex area of multiple pieces of energy over the Rockies. These low pressure areas over Indiana /Illinois border and over Central Minnesota will move off to the East Northeast so that by tomorrow evening we have a low pressure over Eastern Mi. This will allow a complex frontal system to approach PA and there will be periods of rain along with the potential for isolated severe and garden variety type thunderstorms in PA into NY. And it is this frontal system that will also produce the severe weather across the zone. There is going to be multiple pieces of energy from the rockies that will be making there way across the country!

Stay tuned for further information should it become necessary!

June 15th Severe Weather Potential

The above map is based on the latest NAM/SREF. Lets take a look at the latest severe parameters and then we will take a look at the weather synopsis!

CAPE is anywhere from 500-5000 depending on where you are located

Lifted Index is anywhere from 0 to - 10 depending on where you are located

SWEAT is above 400 from Tx into Southern OK and Central Louisiana. Then another area from Southern Ohio into Eastern Ky and Tn.

Energy Helicity Index is above 1 from Northern Alabama stretching north thru central TN and into central Ky towards the Ohio /SE indiana border putting extreme SE Indiana in the same category as well.

The above area would be the greatest potential for isolated tornado's.

Weather Synopsis

Low pressure over the KS/Arkansas border with a front stretching to the east to an area of low pressure near southern south carolina. A cold front extends from the low near the KS/ARK border southwest to another low pressure area over the Tx panhandle. With the front extending southwest from that low pressure.

The low pressure near the KS/ARK border is going to be moving off to the ENE thru out the day tomorrow which is going to be in Northern Indiana by 00z or 8 PM and as this low moves it is going to push an occluded front off towards the ENE while dragging a cold front thru the area from OK north!

Showers and thunderstorms will break out along this complex frontal system.

Stay tuned should more information be needed!

June 14 Greatest Risk For Tornado’s

No change in the thinking from earlier today but here is the area that we think is at the greatest risk for tornado’s based on the 00z Parameters.

June 14th Severe Weather Outlook

The above map is based on the latest NAM/SREF. Lets look at the latest severe weather parameters off the guidance.

CAPE is 500-4000 depending on where you are located

Lifted Index is 0 to – 8 depending on where you are located.

SWEAT index is below

EHI is also below:

The areas above that coincide with the greatest areas of EHI and the greatest areas of SWEAT are the areas that stand the greatest potential of tornados.

If you look at the latest guidance you are going to notice that we are getting into a different weather pattern. For the past several days to two weeks there has been a persistent ridge across the south , central and into the east. This pattern is changing and we are entering into a period where the ridge is going to relax and because of this we are going to have one disturbance after another moving from the pacific Northwest to the mid atlantic/NE region.

If you look at the above satellite image in motion you are going to see the first disturbance is currently over the rockie mountain region and this is the first trough and low pressure wave that will me making its way from west to east.

By tomorrow afternoon there will be a low pressure area over E KS and with a warm front stretching to the east to another low pressure area over southern south carolina. A cold front stretching back to the west south west from the low over Ks.

While this area of low pressure and its attendant trough will be responsible for triggering the severe weather chances we will also have pieces of energy dropping SE out of Canada that should also enhance the activity.

Besides the normal wind and hail damage and the areas above pointed out for tornado potential ..there is also going to be the threat of very heavy rains that could cause flooding in some regions.

Stay tuned for more information should it become necessary!

We may issue a map later tonight before 2 AM for the area that has the greatest potential for severe weather!

June 13th Severe Weather Potential

The above outlook is based on a blend of the latest NAM/SREF.

CAPE is anywhere from 500-4000 depending on where you are located..

Lift Index is anywhere from 0 to –8

SWEAT index is 400 or above in NW ARK into Central & Western Missouri to SW Iowa and back thru Nebraska and Ks. Also the eastern half of South Dakota.

EHI is at 2.5-3 from NE KS to western Missouri from North to south along the western Half. . It is these areas in combination with the SWEAT at 400 or above that have the greatest potential for any tornados.

Weather Synopsis

Low pressure will be located over SE Colorado by 2 AM . Extending from this area of low pressure is a warm front to the east then turns into a cold front which is connected to another low pressure over or just off the coast of NJ. Showers and thunderstorms will stretch from north to south in association with the low pressure over SE Colorado. During the day this low pressure will start to move eastward and that will push the warm front slowly to the north ..while the cold front will have cleared the east coast bringing sunny and pleasant weather to the region from Pa south until you get to the other small severe zone which will be associated with a weak area of low pressure that develops along the southern part of the cold front over south carolina along the coast.

Aside from the areas mentioned above with the potential for a tornado the main threat will be winds in excess of 60 MPH and large hail.

The Heat Is Poised To Return!

When looking at the guidance above ..the GFS & ECM are both in agreement on after this cooler period we are going to return to a hot and humid period of weather. Of course at this time range we are talking about the longer range and if the ECM is correct the heat will return as soon as 168 hrs out or next sunday! If the GFS is correct we are going to be waiting until next tuesday –wednesday.

They both agree on moving a ridge into the eastern part of the USA. Obviously this is something in the medium to long range , so the timing could change.

However, I want to issue a word of caution ..IF this heat ridge does build into the area & the east and south and central areas get locked into this heat ridge for any length of time…if a strong cold front moves across from west to east we could be looking at a severe weather outbreak sometime in the future.

For the immediate future it looks like over the next 5 days we could be going into a cooler and wetter period. This should mean areas in the east/northeast should have a break in severe weather as the focus would be more in the way of rainfall. We will probably post an update on this rain potential sometime in the next 24 hrs!

So, in summary, get ready for the heat after the rain moves out!