Wednesday, August 31, 2011

Katia Update

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The above are all latest images of tropical storm Katia. It is very important that we start this off with the disclaimer that should be universally known in the world of weather that once you get into the long range the accuracy of models goes down significantly including the model that is referred to as a King the ECM.

Now lets look at what is happening with the guidance and we only have access to the ECM every 12 hrs so the time is not going to match up but you can plainly see the differences even though there are some saying that there is no differences.

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Obviously even the untrained eye can notice the difference between the two runs. What happens is KATIA misses the first trough completely and slides underneath and the ridge builds back west and allows KATIA to have a due west heading until 192 hrs where it starts to head NW and then N and then NE and still keeps it out to sea. But the changes are there in the under 192 mark and there is no way around this DESPITE what some feel.

Now lets look at the GFS which also people are NOT picking up on this as well has come west..

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You can see here as well from the 00z to the 12 Z twelve hours difference that at the same latitude the GFS is also further to the west..

Now lets look at the rest of the guidance ..

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12 Z UKMET which is only to 120 hours at the source we get it from is actually SW of its bigger brother the ECM..

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12 Z HWRF a hurricane model..moves west north west and then starts to bend back to the west ..

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12 Z GFDL which is SW of the 12 Z ECM position.

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12 Z CMC or GGEM which is also SW of the ECM position.

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Finally the NOGAPS which is also SW of the ECM position.

Now the CMC and UKMET have continuously been southwest of the ECM operational.

Now what becomes more interesting and a FACT that most are not reading elsewhere is that the 00z ECM ensemble members only had 2 members showing a recurve…

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So what you are seeing from the guidance now is that KATIA misses the first trough and is able to slide underneath it. But in reference to the ECM what is actually making this start to move towards the NW and N and then NE?

The moral of the story is that we will continue the theme of it is to early to say whether or not this will impact the east coast . On the same token there should be no talk of this being a fish storm because it is too early for that kind of talk.

If you see that talk it boils down to people forecasting what they WANT to happen.

Stay tuned! We will issue a new tracking map later tonight or tomorrow!

Monday, August 29, 2011

Tropical Depression 12 Track

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We posted this last night around 4:30 AM on our facebook page. We are 100% confident in this system becoming a major hurricane. We are also 100% confident on the track thru ten days. The question then becomes whether this is a Bermuda threat or a East Coast threat. That answer is not known at this point and time  as it is to early.

However..presently there is 20-30 knots of shear effecting future Katia. If the system stays weaker due to this shear then it will take a more westerly course. Global models suggest the weakness in the ridge should move west as the ridge tries to rebuild this would help a weaker system stay further south and west. If this gets to 25N/60 W and crosses that checkpoint without going above 25 N then the odds increase for an east coast threat!

Sunday, August 28, 2011

Irene has passed …Invest 92 L on the horizon!

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Irene has passed the area which made a category 1 landfall at little egg inlet in NJ. After dropping 5.01 inches of rain and a peak wind gust of 62 MPH in Allentown , PA on the south side..this was recorded and Observed by Bobby Martrich with Lehigh Valley Weather Patrol with Bobby and Suzy.

With IRENE now over for the most part outside of some rains still continuing  in the Northeast with wraparound showers in PA ..we turn our attention to the next system which is invest 92 L and say here we go again!

At the present time the system has a 70% chance of developing and this is because the models are pretty firm on this developing..despite its appearance now!

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The system at the present time is in very good convergence and divergence however..shear at the present time is in our opinion effecting the system and hence its appearance..

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The above image shows 30-40 knots of shear present as of 18 Z.

Since this is in the long range we are going to only show what the models are suggesting . We are looking at a system around 10 + days out give or take ..

Last nights GFS showed a recurve way out in the atlantic with no effect on the east coast. Todays 12 Z GFS continues this theme but not as far out as last nights run.

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European computer model last night looked like this:

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Which by day 9/11 had a hurricane along the east coast by NYC. Today, however , looks like this:

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Which if this were to go out further would seem to suggest a recurve as well.

Now..what we do know is that this should continue to the West or West north west for some time as it is being steered by an abnormally strong sub tropical ridge.

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We do find it interesting that one of the members of the ensembles looks like this:

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So to sum things up:

A. This system should develop into the next tropical cyclone and has the potential to become Katia

B, This system should continue to move West North West being steered by the STR

C. It is to early to know what track this system will take and at what strength but to keep in mind that in the spread and different runs of the models …some “potential” could be possible for another system to effect the east coast!

Stay tuned for the next update which will be in 24 hrs!

Thursday, August 25, 2011

Attention Mid Atlantic Into The Northeast! Prepare now!

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The above is the latest image of Hurricane Irene. The map below is a track map along with what to expect impact wise!

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The latest from NHC is below:

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This will be a very large storm so even if the center were to stay off the coast we would still be talking about huge impacts with flooding, winds and storm surge!

Make preparations NOW!

Mid Atlantic To All of Eastern Pa To NYC and all of NJ–Prepare In Case!

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Folks there is really no way around getting this message out to the readers. If you are in the areas mentioned above along the east coast..the suggestion of Real Wx Services is to make preparations now for what could be one wicked ride of weather coming up.

Folks that know us know that we do NOT like to hype scenarios but we have been talking about this when it was still an invest.

So lets get right to this shall we?

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00z GFS..No doubt about it this model has come west from the day before yesterday with a CAT 1 making landfall in South Central NJ..

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The above two images are the hurricane model the GFDL. Now if it was just the GFDL showing this we would not be quite concerned cause for the longest time the GFDL was not verifying to well with IRENE..but

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The 00z ECM above! Now you can see that the 00z ECM has also come in West from its 12 Z run and folks this western trend was something that we had talked about on our facebook page for Real Wx Services because we noticed that IRENE has been moving more WNW instead of NW and this brings her closer to florida which then as we said would bring her further west further up the coast.

Now what this also does is it puts all the areas mentioned above on the eastern side of the system which is by far the worst side of the system.

Models are suggesting that this will be a CAT 1 hurricane at this latitude and quite a large one at that.

Essentially what this means is that we would be dealing with the potential for winds sustained at 70-90 MPH, widespread power outages , substantial wind damage, high tides and surge and major flooding with the potential for 5-10 inches of rain.

This is what the area could be dealing with IF the models and guidance are correct and our advice is to make those preparations now.

Pay attention to your local news outlets and your local weather source and as always here at Real Wx Services we will be covering this system later today from 12 noon till 6 AM and then Friday from noon till 6 PM and back after midnight!

Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Southeast to Northeast–Stand By!

First off we want to start off by saying anyone that follows us and is familiar with our forecasting and analysis knows that we never HYPE a storm. This is something that we are against doing. On the same token we are also against doing just the opposite or bittercasting or saying something is not going to happen just because “we do not believe it” Weather should never be based on what we “believe” but rather the guidance we have and a understanding of what is happening and occurring & climatology.

With that said..we here at Real Wx Services can not disregard what the European Computer Model is showing when it has been the most consistent model. It was the model that suggested that this would steer to the North of Hispanola and that is what has happened. So lets look at what is happening currently and then we will get into it..

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The above are the most recent images of Hurricane Irene. And as you can tell Irene is a very large hurricane. Most recent NHC guidance had the pressure at 978 mbs which has dropped since the 11 PM update indicating some strengthening is occurring!

However we think that shear may be having a little effect on the system but by no means is it having a detrimental effect on the system since it is able to strengthen even experiencing that shear. The shear is 10-20 knots on the latest updated shear map for 6 z..

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Convergence and divergence are decent across the system as well.

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So all this is conducive for further strengthening.

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Steering currents suggest that this should continue WNW for the time being. However, as the map above portrays you can see a trough coming off the east coast into the western Atlantic and what this is going to do is create a weakness in the ridge . Hurricanes generally like to seek out the path of least resistance and this will allow Irene to take a NW turn ..

This is where things then become interesting..latest guidance has Irene moving NW because of that weakness in the ridge ..however..guidance then builds that ridge back towards the west ..or in other words towards IRENE. What this then does is cause IRENE to move on a due NORTH track.

Landfall looks to be around North Carolina to South Carolina at the present time.

Now guidance diverges a little bit..the 00z ECM much like its counterpart at 12 Z takes IRENE to landfall and then moves due NORTH inland on the coast and goes across KPHL & KABE and Albany! Pretty much on par with 12 Z.

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Now folks if this happens and occurs we are talking about a Category 1 hurricane approaching the region with winds in its strongest quadrant of about 70-90 MPH, very heavy rains on the order of 4-8 inches + and beach erosion, trees down and power outages etc..

The GFS also suggests a similar scenario but instead of inland it is slightly off the coast of NJ..

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Folks , either way you look at this if you live on the east coast from the Carolinas North you need to be paying attention.

There is some folks talking on the internet about a fish storm..however..aside from the NOGAPS ..there is not a model suggesting that scenario. These folks just are afraid to deal with the possibility of a Major Hurricane Cat 3 or 4  ( carolinas) and a Cat 1 further north.

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We have no changes with the map above that has been issued as the western extent as shown on the ECM is already covered in this tracking cone.

Please keep in mind that we are still about 5 days away so there is plenty of time to monitor..However..it would not hurt to start preparing NOW.

Please also keep in mind that even if you take a blend of the GFS/ECM for the track you are talking a coastal hugger if not inland track.

Please also remember when viewing the GFS on future runs that it has a bias of digging troughs to deep which gives it and its ensembles a SE bias.

Folks its hard to ignore the ECM..we will be monitoring this and updating all day today into early wed morning till 6 AM and then resume on Wed at 12 noon till about 6 PM and then 12 AM thursday morning till 6 AM friday morning to bring you the latest!

Monday, August 22, 2011

Tropical Storm Irene Update 8/22/11

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The above images are the latest images of Tropical Storm Irene which as of 11 PM is just under hurricane strength with a pressure of 993 MBS. Since that time Recon has found lower pressures around 989 MBS..

We had originally laid out this track and scenarios with the possibilities in the following map below:

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As you will see when it comes to the new map we have not really strayed too much from the original thinking we just laid out the track a little bit further.

Looking at the conditions as of 00z

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Shear as of that time was around 10-20 knots, however, there is an anti-cyclone in the upper levels with Irene and the shear has NOT been hindering intensification by any means. Divergence was good , convergence on the other hand was lacking and the vorticity was also good.

Irene has been becoming better organized and more defined over the evening hrs .

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With the steering currents in place IRENE should continue to move off to the WNW around the Subtropical Ridge. However, a long wave trough is expected to move into the Western Atlantic & this should allow Irene to find a weakness in the ridge and Irene should start to move more towards the NW.

If guidance is correct the ridge will then build back towards the west and this would allow Irene to essentially move North or even NNW along the Eastern Seaboard.

This is the 00z GFS and its current thinking ..

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Now for the tricky part of the forecast..Intensity. We think that Irene has a shot at becoming a Major Hurricane before she makes landfall anywhere from Florida to South Carolina should be on standby!

The best chance for this to be achieved is IF IRENE can stay away from going over the mountains of Hispanola. If she steers north of Hispanola then we feel that this could become a Major Hurricane.

Places further up the coast are also urged to keep an eye on this.

So here is what we are thinking:

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If this track does happen then along the east coast we would be looking at some rough seas, gusty winds and heavy rains! Also depending on how strong IRENE can manage to become they can spawn off some tornadic activity as well,

Stay tuned for more information.

Starting later tonight after midnight thru wed AM we will constantly be updating this !