June 24th Severe Weather Potential

Today is going to be complicated cause we are actually dealing with two different frontal systems and two different systems. System #1 which will effect the areas further east is a cold front which also turns into a warm front which is attached to a low pressure up in Canada.
System #2 is low pressure that will be coming out of montana with its associated trough and also a warm front that moves west to east. These frontal systems will be the cause for severe weather potential today ..
One thing is certain its going to be a hot day across most of the country ..

Temperatures are going to be from the 80s to as high as 100 degrees depending where you are located..

In addition to the warm temperatures it will be humid with dew points in the 60s and 70s...

Now lets look at the severe weather parameters that will be in place...

CAPE is going to range from anywhere from 1000 to as much as 4000 depending on where you are located..

Plenty of lift across the central part of the country with as low as negative 10-12.

This next image is a little concerning in all reality ..

This shows a large area of EHI at or above 2 from the Dakotas down into Kansas . This would indicate the potential for some tornadic activity across this region..
The helicity also lines up with this same area fairly well..

The last parameter to look at is the shear which will be above 30 knots across the area which is sufficient for severe weather..

So with that all said and done this is the outlook . We think further east in areas like KY and TN you are only going to be dealing with pop up storms that could bring a chance of hail and or wind...

If you are in the areas that we mentioned for Tornado potential keep your eye to the sky and stay tuned in to your local weather or the National Weather Service for updates..

June 17th Severe Weather & Garden Variety Storms

You look at the map above and its a complex series of fronts . A cold front across the lakes region will serve as a focus for thunderstorms. A secondary cold front south of there will serve as a purpose for thunderstorms and then a stationary front along the central part of the USA will also serve as a focus for thunderstorms.
A low pressure will be located across west Tx with a trough associated with it ..all these features will serve as triggers to bring about severe weather. 

Lets look at the temperatures first ..

Temperatures are going to be in the 80s and 90s for the most part so a really warm day is on tap across much of the region ..On top of this the Dew Points are going to be "sticky" as well in the 60s to 70s..

Now lets look at instability or CAPE  or Convective Available Potential Energy that will be available..

CAPE will be 1000 to as much as 3500 depending on where you are located ..

There is plenty of lift across the whole area so the Lift Index will not be a problem when it comes to severe or garden variety storms.
We think the EHI will serve to show where the worst of the severe weather will be with all modes possible including a tornado or two possible..

Super cells will be possible from Central and Western Nebraska to Eastern Colorado and then almost in a straight line down into TX. This is the region we think will have the greatest chance of severe weather.

This is also the region where shear will be the greatest with at least 40 knots...

So with all the above parameters we have highlighted a pretty large zone but keep in mind we pointed out where we think the worst will be. If you are outside those areas then your threats with any storms would be winds and hail along with heavy rain..

June 16 Severe Weather Potential

The area we have circled in red is where we anticipate the greatest of the severe weather to be based on the parameters that are presently in place. This is  a day 2 outlook so this could change between now and later on tonight.
The area in red has the chance to have the potential for tornadoes based on the EHI for that particular region at being at least one and above..

It is also in the northern part of that circle in red that the shear is greatest with 40 + knots..

Cape or convective potential energy is also sufficient enough to produce severe weather ..

With amounts of CAPE as high as 4000. 
There is also plenty of Lift in the atmosphere..

And the greatest Helicity also lines up with the greatest EHI which is what you want to look for when there is the potential for tornadoes.

As for temperatures and dew points it will be quite warm ahead of the cold front with temperatures in the 80s and 90s and dewpoints in the 60s and 70s..

As we mentioned the trigger will be a cold front that will be dropping down to the south east and a secondary cold front will also be following this one for areas further north in the outlook zone. 

If you are in the red circle we emphasize that all modes of severe are possible and if you are outside that area the severe chances are lower with winds and perhaps some hail being the main threats. 

We will update this later tonight if necessary once the new data for today comes in ..

We Now Have Invest 92 L -Will It Develop?

While we have Andrea ongoing across Florida and taking aim to move up the east coast with its heavy rains we look to the east of the Islands and we see that we have Invest 92 L. This is what the National Hurricane Center has to say about 92 L

1. A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM
FORCE IS LOCATED ABOUT 775 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS
BECOME A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED TODAY...STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES WESTWARD AROUND 15 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

While often times we disagree with the National Hurricane Center we are in complete and total agreement with them at the present time. The chances of this developing over the next 48 hrs are extremely low . Lets take a look at the reasons why...

While shear is needed and a necessity for severe thunderstorms it is detrimental to the development of tropical systems and you can see that there is at least 30 + knots of shear effecting this system. In addition to this is there is an abundance of dry air across and around the system..

Dry air is also detrimental to the development of tropical systems. So at the present time we have :

1. Too much shear in place

2. Too much dry air around the system..

The system is also very disorganized as you can tell looking at the visible image

And the convergence and divergence is to the east of the system..not presently over the system.

The one positive that the system has going for it is that the vorticity is not broad and elongated..

However at the present time there is to much going against this system to develop. Movement should be to the west over the next several days.. We will continue to keep an eye on this system to see whether or not it can develop if the environment would improve.

First Tropical Storm of the Season -Andrea

We mentioned in our Tropical Hurricane Outlook that we thought that the east coast would be in more play this season with the Tropical Storms and Hurricanes and the first one does not disappoint for being only the first week of June...

Current radar shows heavy rains, some tornado warned cells and this rain will be moving up along the eastern seaboard as Andrea moves off to the Northeast.

Rainfall expected by WPC over the next 72 hours...

Our track and impacts that Andrea should have on the east coast as it moves up and along the coast..

June 5th Severe Weather Potential

This will be the picture by 8 am in the morning. Low pressure over N TX with a dryline running south from there. A cold front that stretches east and then NNE to a low pressure over Minnesota . Then a warm front is positioned from west to east across the southeast part of the USA. The cold front will be sagging southeast as the day goes along and should cross NC TX by evening time. It will once again be this cold front responsible for severe weather across the highlighted zone. 
The greatest storm threats for Tornado potential looks to be in Ok once again and this time TX near the Panhandle..

You can see that this is where the greatest Energy Helicity is in place.

The greatest Helicity is also aligned over OK as well as the EHI..

The greatest wind shear also resides over that same region. All three sufficient for severe weather. 

Again when it comes to the Convective Available Potential energy the greatest CAPE also lighns up over the two areas mentioned above.

The above is the lift index which means there is enough lift in the atmosphere to produce severe weather and dewpoints will be in the 60s and 70s...indicating moisture in the atmosphere..

As you can tell the NAM keeps the greatest of the action to the north of the state of Tx ..

Until the evening when West TX gets into some of the action.. at which time is when the cold front would be moving across the region..

If you are not listed above then your severe modes would be winds and or hail along with heavy rains with any storms that do occur. North Central Tx according to the most recent run of the NAM could possible receive some shower activity but we are not expecting anything to be severe at this point and time..
So this is the outlook for tomorrow June 5th 2013

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June 4th Severe Weather Potential

Difference in guidance is going to make todays forecast a little more challenging. 

You can see this is the NAM at 18 hrs out or 18 Z in the afternoon or 2 PM Eastern time. You can see that it keeps TX dry. On the other hand the 12 Z ECM from yesterday afternoon between 2 PM and 8 PM Eastern Time develops moisture into TX... Both are high resolution models  and both have a different scenario. So we decided to take a blend of the two models when it came to the forecast.

To look at how conditions are expected to be by afternoon and evening ..

You see a low pressure over the Dakotas with a frontal system trailing south which turns into a cold front back to a low pressure over the border of Utah and Co..with the dry line in Southwest tx with another area of low pressure. It is this frontal feature that will bring the chance of severe weather to the region today.

So we look at the CAPE on the NAM and we see about 1000 to as high as 2750 

Lift Index is around negative 7 to negative 8 at its lowest which indicates that there is enough lift in the atmosphere to support severe weather...

Shear will be 30 knots + across the region but here again TX comes in with even lower shear which if the NAM is correct would not be very supportive of severe weather.

Dew points are in the 60s and 70s across the region...which this would be supportive of a moist atmosphere.

Now where the NAM does not create a pretty picture is in the Energy Helicity Index or the EHI

You can see that OK is really lit up again when it comes to the EHI and the SWEAT index is also at 500 across OK 

Those in TX looking at these last two images keep in mind that the ECM has no moisture for your region during this time frame.. However if the NAM is indeed correct then we could be looking at Tornado's once again into OK and also into Kansas...
Pretty much elsewhere we are expecting the severe threats to be winds and hail. 
Again ..the wildcard is TX which we can not give a clear picture on with the difference in guidance ...If the NAM is correct then they would remain dry ..despite the parameters..of the ECM is correct then they would be looking at severe weather with all modes possible. It is something we will have to keep an eye on thru out the day time and update if necessary!