The above image is our outlook and is based off the latest SREF...along with the latest NAM from 00z model run.
What we see happening is several things and this is at 8 AM in the morning. We see a cold front with an area of low pressure over the dakotas with a associated trough ..this will be dropping southwards.. We also see a another series of lows over Kansas with a warm front attached to it that drapes southwards and then southeast wards . It will be these two frontal systems that will bring a chance of severe weather to the zones highlighted in the first image.
Lets look at the temperatures first off to begin..
Temperatures will mainly be in the 80s and 90s and the dew points in these same general areas will be in the 60s and the 70s
So across these areas we will be provided with a warm to hot muggy like day and if you are outdoors please drink plenty of fluids.
Convective Available Potential energy that will be available for storms to tap into ..Remember this works as fuel to a fire along with other parameters that are in place..
The CAPE ranges from 1000 to as much as 4000 + depending on where you reside in the highlighted severe zone.
There will be plenty of lift in the atmosphere as well ..
With the lift index as low as -10 to -12 ...other areas not quite as negative but once again it depends on where you reside..
Wind shear , which is detrimental to Tropical Cyclones is a needed ingredient for severe weather and you can see that we have marginal to decent wind shear in place across the region of 30 to 50 knots...
This is the SWEAT index and it is highest across Iowa, Nebraska and parts of Kansas...
And in combination with the SWEAT Index is the Energy Helicity Index and for those that are not aware it is these parameters that you look at for tornado chances..
EHI is highest across Eastern Kansas into SW Missouri. Due to the SWEAT index being so high across Iowa , Nebraska and parts of Kansas and the EHI also high in Kansas it is these areas that we would say have a chance of a Tornado or Two. If you are outside these areas but in the severe zone then your greatest threats is winds and hail . Of course with any storm you will have the threat of heavy rain as well..
A stationary front draped across the central part of the USA and a series or waves of low pressure will be riding across this front and this front should serve as the potential for severe weather ..
The above is based off the SREF severe probability outline and the parameters are based off of the 00z NAM ...
Temperatures across the area are going to be warm to hot ..
With temperatures in the 80s and 90s across majority of the severe zone..
Dew points will be anywhere from the 50s to the 60s.. across the region ..
Shear will be sufficient for severe weather with the shear from 40 to as much as 60 knots depending on where you are located...
Convective Available Potential energy will be anywhere from 1000 to 4000 depending on where you are located..
Lift in the atmosphere will be in place from anywhere from 0 to -8 or so depending on where you are located..
SWEAT index is highest across Nebraska and Kansas where it reaches as high as 500. This indicates that Tornado's could be possible across the region.
Finally EHI is highest across Nebraska which is in line with the highest SWEAT area so we think that Nebraska and Kansas have the potential to see a tornado or two across that region...
If you are outside of those regions the main threats will be Winds and Hail ...
Across the Northeast there will be showers and thunderstorms but they will be of the Non Severe Variety and the weather will continue with low humidity and average to below average temperatures..
