R.W.S Special Weather Statement for January 10-11th

R.W.S. Special Weather Statement

Significant Snow Storm Possible

Timeframe 7 AM Saturday -7 AM Sunday...

Low pressure just to the North of the Pacific Northwest will move east south east at the same time southern stream energy will be forming on the Tx/oklahoma Panhandle. This southern stream energy will become the dominant player. This S/W will move on a ENE basis thru western Tennessee into Eastern KY and then Western VA. From here this S/W will move east off the coast around the Delmarva before moving ENE up the coast.
The potential exists for a significant snowfall for MD, Southern PA, South Central PA into Central NJ and Northern New Jersey into NYC and Southern New England.
Please stay tuned for further updates!

R.W.S Ice Storm Warning

The following is an Ice Storm Warning issued at 2:15 PM EST 1-6-09 by R.W.S. Effective 1-6-09 6 PM to 1-7-09 12 Noon EST.

The following statement applies to the counties of Sussex, Warren, Morris, Carbon, Monroe,Berks, Bucks, Lehigh, Northampton and counties in Pa.

Effective 1/06/09 6 PM to 1/07/09 12 noon eastern standard time
R.W.S Special Weather Statement

Significant ice storm to effect the area

Low pressure developing over the Tennessee Valley early this afternoon will continue to move North NortheastThis low pressure has tapped into a supply of moisture from the GOM. This area of low pressure will move towards the Ohio Valley.
With a Greenland Block in place and a strong -NAO of 2.5 SD ..this primary will hit a brick wall of confluence and be forced to hand off its energy to a secondary area of low pressure. The development of this secondary low pressure should take place off the coast of southern Jersey WAA will spread out ahead of the primary low and will run over the top of lower level cold air. CAD will be firmly entrenched across the areas N & W of I-95.
The potential exists for a couple inches of snow followed by a long duration of ice. The potential exists in the above regions up to .50 inches of ice The potential exists for a dangerous ice storm.

Please stay tuned for future statements about this potentially dangerous storm from R.W.S.

January 6-8th Ice Storm

Pink section across the south...T-1 inch possible of snow and sleet .10 ice possible otherwise turning to rain.
Pink section across NW PA 1-3 inches of snow and sleet with a .10 inch ice
Red section across PA 1-3 inches of snow/sleet possible ..main threat ice storm....25-.50 ice Greatest ice accrual from central PA into East central PA
Red section Across NW NJ 2-4 inches of snow/sleet followed by Zr significant ice accumulations of .25+
Red section across NY and points east 2-4 inches of snow/sleet with .25 inches ice possible
Pink section across the North 1-3 inches of snow/sleet some AR mixing in before mixing with plain rain and possibly changing to plain rain
Light blue not including Maine 4-8 inches of snow possible..may mix with sleet but primarily will be snow
In the state of Maine 6-9 inches of snow..Along the coast may mix with sleet and freezing rain holding accumulations down... more like 3-5 along the coast...

Ice Storm Watch By R.W.S

The following is an Ice Storm Watch issued at 5:50 PM EST by R.W.S.

The following statement applies to the counties of Sussex, Warren, Morris, Hunterdon, Somerset in New Jersey. Carbon, Monroe,Berks, Bucks, Lehigh, Chester, Northampton and Pike counties in Pa.

Effective 1/06/09 7 PM to 1/07/09 12 noon eastern standard time
R.W.S Special Weather Statement

Potential Winter Storm to effect the area.

Low pressure developing over the Southeast USA early this afternon will continue to move East Northeast.This low pressure has tapped into a supply of moisture from the GOM. This area of low pressure will move thru the Mississippi Valley as it heads towards the Ohio Valley.
With a Greenland Block in place and a strong -NAO ..this primary will hit a brick wall of confluence and be forced to hand off its energy to a secondary area of low pressure. The development of this secondary low pressure is still not agreed upon by models. However, the area for development should be the Delmarva to just south of LI. WAA will spread out ahead of the primary low and will run over the top of lower level cold air. CAD will be firmly entrenched across the areas N & W of I-95.
The potential exists for a couple inches of snow followed by a long duration of ice. The potential exists in the above regions for .25-.50 The potential exists for a dangerous ice storm.

Please stay tuned for future statements about this potentially dangerous storm from R.W.S.

January 6-8th Winter Storm Scenario

WSW-National Weather Service

Issued at approximately 3:45 AM

As founder of R.W.S it brings me great pride to see the NWS agrees with my thinking that has been in place for more then a week now. R.W.S issued a Special Weather Statement well over an hour ago to be now followed by the NWS..

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
346 AM EST MON JAN 5 2009

...A WINTER STORM COULD BRING THE REGION SNOW THEN FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...

NJZ001-007>010-PAZ054-055-060>062-067>069-051700-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0001.090106T2300Z-090107T1600Z/
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-
LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...
FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING...
ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON...WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...
DOYLESTOWN
346 AM EST MON JAN 5 2009

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TONIGHT SETTING UP FOR WINTRY
WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TUESDAY AND HEAD NORTH TO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LOW SHOULD PULL A WARM FRONT AND A
DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

INITIALLY THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS SNOW, OR SNOW AND SLEET
MIXED TUESDAY EVENING. ANYWHERE FROM AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW COULD
ACCUMULATE JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF PHILADELPHIA, TO UP TO 4
INCHES OVER THE POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY.

HOWEVER, THE GREATER THREAT IS FREEZING RAIN. AS WARMER AIR MOVES
IN ALOFT TUESDAY NIGHT, THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET WHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW 32. ICE COULD
ACCUMULATE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH AFTER THE CHANGEOVER.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

$$

RNS

Teleconnector Update as of January 4th

Teleconnectors continue to indicate a very negative NAO of about -2.8 SD. They also continue to keep the NAO negative till the end of the period when it goes neutral and stays neutral.
PNA is negative as of last night but slowly trending to neutral and then expected to go positive and stay positive .
Meanwhile the EPO which is positive is expected to fall to neutral territory and then stay there....

All and all these signals continue to support a cold pattern across the east and northeast in the medium and long term. As we start to lose the NAO to neutral the EPO at neutral and a positive PNA will still be a cold signal for the east and northeast much like late November into Mid December.