Omega Block Final Map Simplified Version

Omega Block Winter Storm Watch

****Omega Block Weather has issued a winter weather watch for the NYC metro area and its immediate counties in southeast New York State, which include, Westchester, Putnam and Rockland counties.****

A pontential snowstorm of 6+ inches seems likely to affect the area starting late friday and lasting into sunday morning night. Plowable snowfall is likely and travel conditions will be problematic.

Latest model guidance, with exception to the ECMWF, which has been considered the outlier and not used into the blend by the HPC, show good consistency and agreement concerning the winter storm for the area this weekend, which now is likely. Therefore, Omega Block Weather has issued a Winter Storm Watch for the above mentioned counties and the NYC metro area. The metro area could see accumulations exceeding 6 inches, however at this point and time, it's not set in stone. So, further info and analysis will be done over the next 12 hours or so. A Winter Storm Warning will most likely be issued by Omega Block Weather, sometime friday afternoon for the same aforementioned areas.

Travel conditions will be impacted and delays will likely result. Please avoid stay driving if possible.

Please stay tuned for further updates, as this potential winter weather event nears.

R.W.S Winter Storm Warning for January 10-11

The following is a Winter Storm Warning Issued by R.W.S

The following Winter Storm Warning is in effect for the following Counties...
In PA..
Berks,Bucks,Chester, Lehigh, Montgomery, Northampton and Philadelphia Counties. . As well as , Carbon Monroe, Pike counties, Luzerne, Lackawanna, Wyoming and Wayne...
In NJ
Hunterdon, Passaic, Morris, Sussex, and Warren Counties

R.W.S has issued a WSW effective 1/10/09 1 AM est time to 1/11/09 1 AM EST

Significant snowstorm on the way for the above counties.
Low pressure east of Montana will continue to move to the ESE and merge with a low pressure that is currently over S/W TX. This low pressure will then move ENE to Southern Indiana . From there this low pressure will move east across southern ohio and then across the Pa/MD border until it reaches the east coast. At this time it should cross across southern NJ as it makes the turn Northeast up the Eastern Seaboard.
This low pressure area will tap into moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. With cold air at the surface and the S/W going to the south of the area a heavy swath of snow will fall to the north of the low pressure center. Temperatures will be in the 20s to low 30s from North to south across the region.
The potential exists for the first widespread snowstorm of the season across the area. .
Across the immediate philadephia area..Enough warming aloft may cause the snow to mix with sleet lowering totals to the 5-7 inch range.
Remember a Winter Storm Warning means that a significant snowstorm of 6 inches or more of snow, along with the possibility of sleet and freezing rain is likely to occur within the next 24 hours. Please stay tuned to the latest updates and statements on this winter storm.

Omega Block Final Map For January 11

Map based on all the southern solution based models at a 80% level; (GFS, NAM, UKMET and GGEM).

The ECM has been used at a 20% level, thus resulting in lesser amounts for southern PA and NJ, which also introduces sleet in the southern areas of the map, and some sleet in the immediate coasts of Long Island and the Cape Cod area.

NYC metro receives a bit of sleet due to its heat island effect and some of the ECM's influence. Immediate suburbs of NYC, see mostly snow with sleet mixing in at times for brief periods.

R.W.S Winter Storm Watch

The following is a Winter Storm Watch Issued by R.W.S

The following Winter Storm Watch is in effect for the following Counties...
In PA..
Berks,Bucks,Chester, Lehigh, Montgomery, Northampton and Philadelphia counties. As well as , Carbon Monroe, Pike counties, Luzerne, Lackawanna, Wyoming and Wayne...
In NJ
Hunterdon, Passaic, Morris, Sussex, and Warren Counties

R.W.S has issued a WSW effective 1/10/09 1 AM est time to 1/11/09 1 AM EST

The potential exists for a significant snowstorm across the following counties.
Low pressure over Montana will continue to move to the ESE and merge with a low pressure that will develop over the TX/OK panhandle. This low pressure will then move ENE to Southern Indiana . From there this low pressure will move east across southern ohio and then across the Pa/MD border until it reaches the east coast. At this time it should cross across southern NJ as it makes the turn Northeast up the Eastern Seaboard.
This low pressure area will tap into moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. With cold air at the surface and the S/W going to the south of the area a heavy swath of snow will fall to the north of the low pressure center. Temperatures will be in the 20s to low 30s from North to south across the region.
The potential exists for the first widespread snowstorm of the season across the area. Please stay tune to later updates as more information becomes available and is analyzed...

Remember a Winter Storm Watch means that the potential exists for 6 or more inches of snow, along with the possibility of sleet and freezing rain. If the storm should become imminent a Winter Storm Warning will be issued.

Omega Block Special Weather Statement

****Omega Block Weather has issued a special weather statement for the NYC metro area and its immediate counties in southeast New York State, which include, Westchester, Putnam and Rockland counties.****

A potential snowstorm of 4+ inches seems likely to affect the area starting late friday and lasting into saturday night. Plowable snowfall is likely and travel conditions would be problematic.

If model guidance consistency continues through the next 24 hours, the special weather statement will be upgraded to a winter storm watch for the area.

Please stay tuned for further updates, as this potential winter weather event nears.

R.W.S. Partner Map Created by Omega Block Weather

00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF blend, for track and QPF was used for this preliminary forecast scenario map.

Due to the east to west nature of the track, highest QPF will be to the north of the system, so as the system exits the coast and starts tracking more NE, the area of highest QPF switches to the NW, hence the scenario i have, using the blend described above.