Thanksgiving Holiday Forecast

The high temperature for the 24th @ KABE was 47 degrees ..This is actually the seasonal value for this time of the year!

This forecast is issued for tomorrow Thanksgiving and the following day as well. There may or may not be a daily forecast issued for the 26th…

Thanksgiving is going to be a cloudy day across the region. High pressure is currently in control but is beginning to slide out. This will allow a warm front which is to the southwest of the region to begin to lift up to the NE. This is going to provide a very decent push of WAA or Warm Air Advection. This is actually causing over running precipitation which is well North of this warm front.

Dewpoints at this present time are relatively dry and low across the area. Around the KABE region they are in the teens. This means that as the precipitation moves in its going to be lost to virga (some remember that well from last winter) ..but will eventually saturate the column.

At the surface there is going to be a rather cold air mass leftover in place and as the warmer air moves in aloft with the precipitation ..it could create some nasty holiday travel in the form of snow/sleet and freezing rain. However..by afternoon due to the WAA pretty much all areas should change over to rain..the only exception could be in the Poconos where the cold air likes to get trapped and linger longer.

Temperatures today are going to also be on the cold side with highs only in the 20s in Maine and pretty much the 30s elsewheres. Places such as NYC and KPHL may reach the lower 40s. These places should see a primarily rain event as well.

So with the above in mind the following map is issued mainly to show the precipitation types one can expect over the period.

The ICE area is where a potential for up to .25 ice exists. If you are out and about traveling in these regions please be aware of any deteriorating weather conditions.

November 24th Daily Weather Discussion

High temperature November 23rd at KABE was 58 degrees. This was another day that ended up above normal for this time of the year as skies partially cleared out allowing some sunshine.

Thanksgiving eve..First, I hope all readers have a very happy holiday and remember that it is a time to be thankful for family and friends and everything you have in life ..regardless of what you may be lacking because there is always someone worse then you are! May God Bless each & every reader!

Now back to the weather for Thanksgiving Eve..

For the most part it is going to be a partly sunny day across the region but clouds will be on the increase. One exception to this is there maybe some left over snow and or rain showers from the frontal system that moved thru from NY into Maine. Otherwise it should be partly sunny across the region.

By evening time, clouds will be on the increase and in the overnight hours precipitation could start making its way east from the west. That will take us into thanksgiving early morning hours.

Thanksgiving at this point looks to be mainly on the wet and cool side..perhaps cool enough to start as wintry precipitation from ABE region on North.

Temperatures for thanksgiving eve will be in the 30s to the North into maine with 40s pretty much elsewhere ..NYC and points south into EC PA and then southeast of there should be in the lower 50s.

November 23rd Daily Weather Discussion

High temperature on the 22nd @ KABE was 59 degrees which resulted in a day with well above normal departures.

Today will be a mostly cloudy day across the region with rain moving in from the west. This should be a brief shot of rain however in association with a cold front that will be moving across the region.

Temperatures will be in the 40s North across Maine and then the 50s south of there to the 60s from SNE to  southern PA into SNJ and point south…

Overall another day that should end up on the positive side of the departure spectrum.

Thanksgiving Holiday Outlook Forecast

A cold front will be approaching the region on tuesday afternoon . The air out ahead of this cold front will be on the mild side for this time of the year with temperatures making it into the 60s. However, the winds will switch around to the Northwest and there will be a strong push of CAA across the region.
For wednesday we will actually have a nice day weather wise in the sense that it should be dry and sunny but then clouds will be increasing thruout the afternoon and precipitation should start to nose into the area on thursday morning. Depending on how fast the moisture arrives..there could be some wintry precipitation to start across the Northern counties of PA and NW NJ..otherwise as the low pressure develops along the front it should draw in warm enough air that the only concern would be dealing with rain for thanksgiving day and night into the day on Friday. However..once the cold front associated with the system moves off the coast its possible that any rain could change into snow showers or flurries on friday afternoon into the evening .
After this coastal low then departs the region the skies will clear but it will become chilly and rather breezy as well.
Hope each and every one of you enjoys their Thanksgiving & Happy Holidays from us here at Real Wx Services to you and your family!

November 22nd Daily Weather Discussion

November 21st high temperature @ KABE was 48 degrees which was seasonal but with the overnight low ended up with a negative departure again.

Today is going to be a mainly cloudy day with a different variety of weather depending on where you live and reside in the Northeast.

From Northern PA into majority of the NE there will be a chance of showers. However when you go to N VT, N NH and Northern Maine you may run into the chance of some ice or snow. However, any ice or snow in those areas will change to rain by evening.

Temperatures in the regions that experience the ice and or snow will be in the 30s to 40s and pretty much the rest of the region will be under cloudy skies with temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s.

November 21st Daily Weather Discussion

The high temperature at KABE on the 20th was 53 degrees which was 4 degrees above normal but with the overnight low going down to 26..the day ended on a negative departure overall!

Today is going to be a sunny day to start but with increasing clouds thru the day in the KABE region. Areas to the west from Central PA will have increasing clouds thru the day. For the most part the day should remain precipitation free as it is not till after midnight when the chances for precipitation would increase but that takes us into monday!

Temperatures are going to range from the 20s and 30s to the north to the 40s to the south and then the low 50s from about KPHL draw a line to the west and then south of that line.

All and all another seasonable to below seasonable weather day is on tap.

Future outlook down the road shows a day or two where the temperatures will get above normal before the bottom begins to drop out of the barrel after Thanksgiving day with perhaps places like ABE seeing there first flakes before the holiday weekend is over!

GFS Continues The Two Storm Theme!

Aside from the 6 Z run early in the day yesterday…since the start of the 00z run on 11/20 we have had 4 runs show the two storms in less then a week for the first week of December. Tonight the GFS once again has shown both storms. Details at this range are fruitless to get concerned over.

Storm #1

Then there is storm #2

Now, the pattern that we appear to be heading into is indeed conducive for a storm to occur.

1. You have the blocking around Greenland.

2. Your thanksgiving storm turns into the new Polar Vortex.

3. We are in a parade of waves coming in off the pacific.

4. The models are showing a retrograding GOA low ..heading towards the Aleutians.

5. A strongly –NAO which is being progged..

#5 is the reason that I would not be completely sold on the track of storm #2 as a strong negative NAO can lead to suppression.

And yet another part of the pattern is the progged value of the AO is expected to go quite negative..which has not been this negative since 2009.

So this spells a emptying of cold air so to speak into the US with the PNA going towards neutral & a negative NAO ..if we have the active wave train this could potentially lead to a snowy start to december.

Stay tuned for more on this developing winter story!