Challenging Forecast With Models Still not In Harmony!

The moral of the story as we begin the 7th day of december is the guidance that we have to use to try and forecast the upcoming time period of the 11-14th. The guidance that we have to use is still not in harmony and its really all over the place.

After looking at tonight’s guidance it appears the models are no closer to a believable solution then when we first started tracking this.

We have seen Appalachian runners, we have seen Great Lakes Cutters, we have seen coastals. Normally in situations like this one could normally turn to the models ensemble means but lets be honest..they have been all over the place.

So here are the different scenarios at 120 hrs out from 00z..

UKMET

ECM

GGEM

GFS

From looking at the above you can pretty much figure out that it would appear that the UKMET/GFS are on similar solutions and the GGEM/ECM are on similar solutions. Models make strange bed fellows.

So lets fast forward to 144 hrs and see what we have..

UKMET above!

ECM above!

GGEM above!

GFS above!

Pieces of the puzzle become no clearer. Notice the UKMET? Now if you are familiar with the UKMET..the UK is basically the little brother to the ECM. Majority of the time when the UKMET is radically different from the ECM it serves to throw up a red flag!  And in this case …I am throwing up a red flag as well and to show you why it is now time to turn to the ensemble means.

So lets look at each of the models means minus the UKMET due to having no access to them.

Notice how the means of the ECM is radically different from the op?

Notice how the GGEM mean is slightly more east? But more importantly notice how it is very similar to the ECM means?

Now we get even more interesting as we notice the GFS is slightly east of its operational run and pretty similar to the ECM means & the GGEM means.
However…perhaps the most important thing to realize is that the UKMET in its operational run is already showing this.

So in the means of the models we have harmony. In the operationals we have confusion and model mayhem. Its a little to early yet to know whether the means are correct or the operationals are correct but at this time ..Real Wx Service is leaning on the Ensemble means & have been since 3 PM yesterday afternoon when we issued this map.

This is the track that we feel fairly confident with at this point and time..especially since the means add much credence to this map which was created well before 00z models yesterday.

This means that it is still possible for areas to the NW of the low track to receive potentially heavy snow! Of course..if the operationals end up correct we will be looking at strong WAA and snow changing to rain & then getting brutally cold on the backside of the storm.

The truth of the matter is it is just to early to know when the energy does not come on land until Friday! We will probably continue to see an array of solutions..However..its too early in the stage of the game for anyone to be giving up if even the models do not yet know the certain outcome.

Stay tuned for more updates on this developing winter storm!

December 7th Daily Weather Discussion

The high temperature @ KABE was 34 degrees on the 6th of December. This is once again well below normal for this time of the year. Seems to have been a common theme as of late.

Today is going to be another variable cloudy skies day with a chance of snowshowers once again from about SC PA North and west as well as east into east central PA and points Northeast.

Another cold day on tap with highs in the 29s to the 30s. 20s to the north and 30s pretty much elsewhere!

We also had a trace of snowfall at KABE on the 6th!

While Everyone Else Is Throwing In The Towel…R.W.S is waving a Red Flag!

I can only imagine if you are a model hugger how you must have felt when you were watching the models yesterday evening! People all over the internet were throwing in the towel…some were so adamant that “ Did you not listen to JB? Winters over after Dec 15th ..so if this storm does not work out that’s it”. These were the sounds of alarm & hype coming from some people!

Here at R.W.S ..we like to stay away from that frame of thinking. How could winter be over before calendar winter even begins? It is statements like these that are made by those that are hugging the models and hugging some of the hype made by the money making propaganda machines that are out there forecasting the weather. Yes, brutal but brutally honest! 

Who can blame them though when looking at some of the solutions coming out of the models yesterday evening? So that is exactly what we are going to do. We are going to look at the solutions and see what is going on. Are they plausible solutions?

First up tonight is going to be the European Computer model! 

So what is going on here? Well first thing that you notice when looking at the ECM is the height rises in the east. Basically the operational ECM takes low pressure into chicago and then stalls this area of low pressure and turns it into a FROPA. This cold front then heads towards the east and then stalls around NYC. Meanwhile another low pressure develops over South Carolina and moves into Central VA ..right up across  or just west of Philadelphia PA, dropping 1 inch of rain in 6 hours and then pushes east from there. 1-1.5 inches of rain over the PA region to NYC region.. Meanwhile that cold front has stalled and another new wave is developing over the Atlantic and Maine has had anywhere from 4-6 inches of rain. By 228 hrs that cold front stalls around NYC (as mentioned above) and that Atlantic low is retrograding back towards Southern New England.  By 234 the low is then over the benchmark but after receiving 1-1.5 inches of rain ..the same areas receive 2-4 + of snow from the retrograding Atlantic low! Meanwhile Maine has had 7-8 inches of rain. By 240 still snowing from eastern PA , KPHL towards NYC which is probably sleet verbatim.

Wow! What an Epic Model Run. Or is it an Epic Mess? Is it even plausible? To find out these answers keep reading!

Next up is the GFS from 00z..

Here you have the GFS and it looks pretty similar to the ECM tracking..although the GFS is certainly not a FROPA ..nor as far northwest as the ECM ..however the GFS has gone from showing two prior east coast or OTS solutions to this very amped up version. This would be a front end snow to ice to rain for majority of the region.

So as you can see we have two solutions that are not very favorable for an east coast snow event..so you have alot of people throwing in the towel.
Are any of these solutions plausible? Lets address the GFS because this is similar to what the OP ECM was doing before in it was taking the low pressure right up the spine of the Appalachians & the likelihood of that happening is very low.

What about the ECM? Well ..the scenario is certainly possible but is it supported at all by the ECM ensembles?

The answer is obviously no! The means do not support the operational run by any stretch of the imagination. Matter of fact one could look at the means and say that this would be a significant snowstorm for all except for perhaps south and east of KPHL (along the coast)

To make things even more interesting is that the GFS ensemble means agree with the ECM ensemble means just the GFS is a tad faster.

So basically with such solutions coming out and the ensembles completely not supporting them..at this point and time I would recommend to follow the means..as the means actually agree with one another.

So while EVERYONE else is throwing in the towel..R.W.S is waving the Red Flag of Caution! Use caution when watching the models and verify the run towards its means! If it looks fluky it probably is! This threat is still very much on the table!

Next update will be after 00z models later today!

December 6th Daily Weather Discussion

Going to pretty much get this out of the way so more focus can be paid attention to the 00z model runs and what solutions are being shown for the system in the week of the 11th.

December 5th High temperature @ KABE was only 34 degrees. This was actually 10 degrees below normal for this time of the year and undercut what the NWS thought the high temperature would have been.

December 6th is going to be a variably cloudy day across the region with snowshowers and snow squalls possible virtually anywhere from PA –Southeast into DE and points to the North!

Temperatures are going to be in the 20s to the north to the 30s elsewheres!

Storm Potential Very Much Alive For Week of December 11th

While admittedly there are three different scenarios on the table for this upcoming event on the three different global models ..the one thing that they have in common is that there is going to be a storm system somewhere in the East. In other words if this is a fantasy storm then all three models are sharing the same hallucinating misconception.

I have heard comments that this storm will disappear on the next run of the GFS ..and as if to put those comments at rest the GFS still had the storm. Still a powerful storm as well.

One thing seems certain a storm is coming but the details at this range are next to impossible to figure out. We can only look at the guidance and try to determine what is the most likely scenario to occur.

So lets look at the two main operational models and then we will take a look at the ensembles of the ECM as well. Again..more emphasis will be placed on the European Model because despite some misinformation on the net that model still is beating every other model when it comes to verification time.

18 Z GFS essentially had an all out blizzard with 1-2 feet of snow. So lets see what the 00z GFS said:

Now the first thing i want to point out is that the GFS essentially beyond 180 hours switches to a lower resolution. Notice where the low is at 180 and then look at the extreme jump east by 192 hrs. Do you see that? This I believe is due to that resolution switch.

However..the first things one notices is that this particular run is south and east of the 18 Z run ..however..cold air is in place…and though it is south and east it still effects parts of the mid atlantic into the Northeast.

Switching models we will look at the operational ECM first.

The European Computer model also has a big storm along the east coast but develops an inland runner which actually tracks OVER the Appalachian MTN chain. While this has happened in times past (very few) , weather history has taught us that systems either tend to pass 100 miles to the west of the MTNS or 100 miles east of the MTNS ..so the operational run of the ECM becomes highly suspect at this point and time..This means we have to turn to the ensembles to see what they are showing..so here we go:

Now as you can tell looking at the ensemble means you see that the storm is weaker then the operational model..This is pretty natural considering the mean is made up of multi members and its smoothed down..but you also notice that the system is further to the ENE at 192 hours and definitely much further east at 216 hours as it is off the coast instead of over the coast.

The next thing you notice is that the means are once again colder then the operational run.

So, taking the means and setting them to the side..when one looks at the 00z GFS which is south and east and one looks at the ECM which is an inland appalachians runner…one would generally take a blend of those two models and if that were to happen you would then be looking at something similar to the ECM ensemble means where the storm system would most likely pass across SNJ and Northeast along the coast from there! This would not be good for our SNJ friends but basically pretty much elsewhere would be dealing with a potential significant snowstorm.

What this storm system is going to come down to is highly dependant on the first clipper system in the 120-156 hr range in which it becomes the 50/50 low. Also if the confluence relaxes across the Northeast as the models indicate. The NAO is negative and the AO is neutral heading to negative! There is also blocking in place.

So the pattern that is in place is indeed very favorable and the potential for the first wide spread significant snowfall is very much alive and well for the week of December 11th. Stay tuned for further updates and you can always find the latest tracking coverage at the R.W.S weather forums!

December 5th Daily Weather Discussion

The high temperature december 4th @ KABE was 38 degrees. This was another day that will go down in the records as below normal across the area.

Today will be a partly cloudy day across the region with lake effect snows in the normal lake effect areas and then scattered snowshowers possible as far south as east central Pa and south central PA into central & western MD as well. In down east maine there is the chance of showers. Those snowshower possibilities extend into the NE thru most of NY but SE NY and northern and central parts of VT & NH. Otherwise partly cloudy skies will be the result.

Temperatures mainly in the 30s to lower 40s again with some 20s across interior maine!

All I Can Say Is : Did the GFS hear Me?

Interestingly enough i post that discussion on to my blog and then 30 minutes later here at the forum and come back up from making supper and the GFS says at 18 Z...You could be on to something!
Clipper type low drops down at 156 hours and is able to dig...
Check out the results