Historic Run on the 00z ECM..Another Blizzard? When? Where? Is this really possible?

Well now that the title got your attention lets look back at something from the last update that was posted earlier after 12 Z runs.

However..with so much energy out there involved in this complicated set up..and with the lesson learned from the past storm that blanketed the east coast with snow..It is entirely possible for this to become something more then what it currently looks.

If this is going to be a pure northern stream system then the energy we are watching is coming from a region with little to no RAOB data. If southern stream involvement becomes more prominent then we could be dealing with a completely different evolution.

So at this time the best call is for a light snow event with the potential bigger event occurring after this one ..and in the meantime we watch the models for any changes to occur that would change the evolution of this system.

 

Notice we mention right off the back a complicated set up and alot of energy involved and we also mention about recent history and what it has taught us with the models as guidance.

Let me place this disclaimer here that this run of the European Computer Model is completely Historic in all aspects & completely points out the patterns capability if the pieces of the puzzle morph together at the correct time. There is alot of talk from some pro mets that are saying that this run of the ECM has 0% chance of verifying. I completely disagree with them and will show you why indeed this run of the ECM is possible. Before we do that though lets look at other guidance.

00z GFS at 120 hours. When one looks at the GFS the first thing one notices is that each run it has been focusing on a different piece of energy and this is probably highly due to it having so many pieces of energy in the flow around the Polar Vortex it does not know which to focus on so we have seen a different run every 6 hrs.

00z GGEM at 120 hours pretty similar to the GFS with the exception it shows a piece of energy that is over southern Ohio that moves due east and intensifies off the coast and drops a light snow event from Southern Pa to DC…

00z UKMET at 120 hours. While you can discern absolutely nothing from this image above other then the position at 120 hrs ..the following two images will show that the UKMET does indeed develop a secondary further to the south off the delmarva or south of there even..

So you can see that looking at all the models above that there is really no harmony as the timing of small scale details continues to be a disagreement.

Now as you look at the ECM keep in mind the following image which is not the ECM ..;)

Yep that is indeed the 00z NOGAPS and notice its proximity to the coast (though faster) and look at how east some of the guidance is. Red flag? It could be.

Now lets move on to the European Computer Model and we will show you exactly what it displays and why it has trended this way. This was the 12 Z Ensemble means..

This was the 12 Z Operational run..

Interesting enough what you see there is not all that far off from its ensemble means ..with one MAJOR exception. The means was more west and more amped up.

SO lets look at tonights 00z European Computer Model..

Yes, you are viewing the 00z ECM and tonight’s model run just showed an east coast blizzard!

 pink 2-2.5
white 1.75-2
dark blue 1.5-1.75
lgt green 1.25-1.5
green 1-1.25

Now…it should not be a surprise that the ECM actually trended further west with this system since that is what its means were showing. It should also not be a surprise to see this type of solution in a pattern such as one where all the models agree on Epic Blocking and the blocking retrograding into North central Canada.

However, at the same time..the European Computer model is the outlier. On the same token the other guidance still can not agree on the small scale details. I believe the ECM is showing the potential that exists in this type of pattern & that potential is one that I can not just discard and say has a 0% chance of happening because it is an outlier.

I also would not be surprised if the ECM means did not have as robust of a solution as the OP run because it does contain 52 members.  However, on the same token I would be shocked if the means was not more SW then the 12 Z means and more amplified & if this is the case then this does indeed lead some credence to what the OP model is showing.

Remember folks its about the pattern & its the pattern that drives the weather. Not the other way around.

Stay tuned for further information on this potentially interesting time period ahead!

January 6-8th Light Event? Non Event? Or More?

The reason that Real Wx Services is different from anything else out there on the net is because we look at the models with a perspective beyond our backyards. We also look “into’ the models and try to figure out what they are trying to show. We also try an pinpoint the model errors for our readers and followers.

With that said ..we mentioned some things to look out for on  the model runs and in particular the GFS. Would there be southern stream involvement with a S/W? Would the southern stream S/W then phase with the Northern Stream clipper?  This is what we need in order to have a Major East Coast Snowstorm.

The pattern like we said is agreed upon by all the global models but the devil is in the small scale details.

As of today the 12 Z GFS now keeps the southern stream basically morphed out of the equation so it is now all Northern stream dependent.

Obviously what we have here on the GFS is a totally and completely different evolution from 00z. This is northern stream dependent and redevelops the clipper further to the north.

Above is an 850 view of 120 hours. As we mentioned this is a completely different solution and i believe we warned last night that we would see another solution again at 12 Z.

12 Z UKMET and 12 Z ECM. 12 Z ECM has actually come back more to the southwest from its previous run and brings a light snowfall to the region and then a more moderate snowstorm to SNE and into Maine it gets to be on the heavier side. Still some differences remain between the UKMET and the ECM though.

The above is the 12 Z GGEM which is well east with the system at 120 hrs but the system to the west of the region then also brings in some light snowfall PA and north.

So, as one can see when we look at the guidance..if one is honest with oneself the solutions are still all over the place. And then we have yet still the 12 Z NOGAPS..

Which this model is still North and west of majority of the other guidance. Again this could serve as a red flag to the other guidance that we still have not seen the final solution.

At the present time it appears as though the best bet would be for a light snowfall across most of the region as the flow is fairly progressive off the pacific despite the blocking that is in place to the north . The area that seems to be at the present time more suitable for a heavier snowstorm would be southern new england into the Northeast.

However..with so much energy out there involved in this complicated set up..and with the lesson learned from the past storm that blanketed the east coast with snow..It is entirely possible for this to become something more then what it currently looks.

If this is going to be a pure northern stream system then the energy we are watching is coming from a region with little to no RAOB data. If southern stream involvement becomes more prominent then we could be dealing with a completely different evolution.

So at this time the best call is for a light snow event with the potential bigger event occurring after this one ..and in the meantime we watch the models for any changes to occur that would change the evolution of this system.

If this system does not become something bigger ..let me be clear that the reason it does not happen is not because of something that a person wanted or did not want to occur but rather because the timing of the players on the field did not morph together!

January 6-8th To Be Or Not To Be? Its All about the Pattern!

In the update focusing on the 18 Z GFS we pointed out to keep an eye on what should be a stronger southern stream S/W that should become part of the overall evolution of this system. 00z GFS above has done exactly that. It now has this southern stream S/W involved….

However..we mentioned that we should look for the Northern Stream system or clipper to slow down some..which the GFS did indeed do that..however it slows it down too much, in all likelyhood.

This allows the southern stream S/W to slide more south and east of the area instead of pulling in closer to the coast because its not able to phase.

Now on the GFS means we notice this energy is slightly faster then the operational run…

And notice how the means is then tugged Southwest of the Op position at the same time. Now its important to keep this in mind as we come back to look at this as well as other guidance in reference to this and what could be a red flag to the overall evolution as its depicted on the Global Models.

Lets look at the rest of the guidance and we are going to look at 144 hrs for the purpose of this update.

GFS 144 hrs

UKMET 144hrs

GGEM 144 hrs

ECM 144 hrs

Notice the position of the secondary low pressure on all the above models. First thing one notices is that the UKMET is actually more west then the ECM. So that is potentially one red flag to the ECM..But here is where the guidance gets alot more interesting.

What you are looking at here above now is the 00z NOGAPS. A couple things stand out right here. First of all when you look at 120 hrs on the NOGAPS you see that the clipper system is almost in the exact same spot as the GFS ensemble means. 2nd thing you notice is that the NOGAPS is more NW or maybe i should say Southwest…at 144 hrs compared to all other guidance.

Now lets look at the GFS means once again so we can see how well it compares at 120 to the NOGAPS above.

Pretty similar in all aspects but yet the GFS means ends up looking like this at 144hrs

While admittedly this is further west then its operational counterpart..the NOGAPS being located more west then the other operational models seriously has to serve as a red flag to the rest of guidance that they are developing this system to far to the east.

Matter of fact..once again they want to take this system and put it over the GULF stream instead of developing it where the greatest thermal gradient would be which is on the western side of the Gulf stream.

So basically to sum things up ..I do not think we have seen the models come around to the final solution for this storm which essentially means that anyone from MD on north is still on the table for the potential of a snowstorm during this period.

Stay tuned for further updates on this developing system…Next update will be after 12 Z models!

A Look at the 18 Z GFS- Behind The Scenes!

Usually i do not do an intermediary update such as this when it comes to the 18 Z model runs. However…there is alot of untruth going around again that I feel the need to talk and look specifically at this model run.

This is hour 120 of the 18 Z GFS and what i want you to notice is that there is precipitation in the southern stream and yet on the 500 mb chart we see no notice of any energy depicted. So it begs to question what the precipitation along the south if there is no energy being depicted? However more importantly when you follow this run out it looks very close to the 12 Z ECM…Remember the red flags to the ECM being the UKMET and the NOGAPS and then one needs to call into question what the 18 Z GFS just did. But now lets look at hr 120 again…

The diagram above actually shows where the low pressure in the lakes should be with a slower solution and also points out that there i no southern stream energy depicted in the 18 Z operational. However..lets look at the ensemble means of the very same run…

Now as you can see the means has a depiction of a southern stream energy which makes sense if you are going to have moisture along the southern Gulf Coast such as the operational shows.

Lets look at 120 hrs now..

Now you are noticing the southern stream energy over N C florida. Notice on the operational we are completely lacking this feature.

At 132 hours you have the secondary right off the delmarva and the two energies begin to merge together.

As you can see the 18 Z means is much more like the 12 Z operational GFS and with some more adjustments could become a solid snowfall along the east coast from PA/MD line north.

Look for that southern stream energy to become more evident on future GFS runs and a slower northern stream system and a further sharpening of the trough.  This is what to look for on future model runs and this is not too far off to becoming “interesting” to say the least!

Remember folks its all about the pattern!

Folks Its All About The Pattern

Here at Real Wx Services we like to focus on what should be the focus and that in this case is once again High Latitude Blocking with huge positive height anomoly working its way west south west from Southern Greenland to North Central Canada. The first important feature with this is that cold air is going to be abundant to the south and southeast of this block into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast which is going to once again mean much below normal temperatures. We here at Real Wx Services are strong believers in the pattern controls the weather.

With the latest 12 Z guidance there is agreement on the above over all weather pattern. However..model solutions spread in their guidance when it comes to the small scale issues involving shortwaves and the possibility of what they can do in this type of weather pattern.

So lets look at the latest 12 Z guidance and see what is happening.

Above is the 12 Z GFS which would bring a major snowfall to places in PA into the Northeast…this is a northern stream disturbance. Basically what we see here is a Miller B where there is a clipper system dropping into the lakes and it redevelops off the Delmarva and rapidly deepens. This type of solution makes sense given where the greatest thermal gradient would be.

The above is the GGEM and this is overall similar to the GFS, only slightly progressive but the theme is the same with a Miller B system redeveloping to the south and then moving off towards the Northeast. There are a few frames missing due to the site not updating those missing frames.

12 Z ECM essentially has a Miller B solution as well but only shows a very light surface reflection of a secondary at 120 and then it is actually on the northern extreme end of guidance and will have more on this in a little bit .

The main differences when you look at the GFS/GGEM versus the ECM is the height falls across the mid atlantic are further south which allows the energy to dig further to the south. This is quite important in the long run & will explain why right after this next bit of guidance.

Real Wx Services always likes to look at two pieces of guidance to see whether or not the European Computer model is actually correct with its depiction. These two pieces of guidance very often serve as  a red flag to the ECM.

We are looking at the 12 Z UKMET & 12 Z Navy Nogaps. First with the UKMET..the first thing one notices is that the UKMET also develops a secondary south of the Delmarva area and is more in line with the GFS/GGEM and it ends up south of LI at 144 hrs.

With the NOGAPS ..it keeps the primary over the lakes stronger..AKA ECM and ends up more to the North just not as far north as the ECM. Overall though the evolution of the NOGAPS is quite similar to the ECM solution and raises a red flag along with the UKMET to the ECM.

As we previously mentioned this is a Northern Stream system and just like the last event the ECM had a difficult time with its evolution as the GFS was the first to catch on to the Blizzard that occurred across the region.

To take this a step further in recognition with the pattern that the teleconnections are showing is the NAO while negative is once again starting to relax and the PNA is indeed slightly positive and the MJO is heading into phase 6.

 

 

Current thinking is that the ECM is a Northern outlier because of the red flags mentioned above and the pattern itself. With high latitude blocking in place which is only slightly weakening at this time period,  this implies that the push of cold air (sinking air) would force the secondary to be further south more in lines of what the GFS/GGEM/UKMET would imply versus the ECM.

Overall a snow threat lies on the table for this time period from PA/MD border north and east but the magnitude of this system is too early to go into details. Stay tuned for more updates!

January 1st 2011 Daily Weather Discussion

High temperature the last day of december of 2010 @ KABE was 46 degrees which was above normal for this time of the year.

Today will be one more day above normal for this time of the year and then Sunday will be a transition day before going back to colder weather. Today we will have increasing cloudiness with showers associated with a cold front moving into the region from the west southwest. Most of these rainshowers on the eastern side should hold off till the afternoon.

Temperatures will be in the 40s basically thru out the region with maybe some 50s as well in your normally warmer locations.

Real Wx Services would like to take the time to wish you and your loved ones a Happy and Prosperous New Year & may all your goals be obtained. We look forward to casting the weather thru out the New Year & with our growing base of weather fans thru out the conus & world!

Arctic Oscillation & Other News!

When we released the winter forecast we talked about a cold december would be felt in the wake of November..and this is exactly what happened except for the same areas of the NE that last year were warmer then normal.

Most impressive is the southeast. Considering this is a La Nina and this area should be warmer then normal.

However, even more impressive is the following news which comes from Don Sutherland..

“Today, the AO was -3.065. December 2010 set records for December blocking during La Niña events. Records included the lowest daily AO reading, lowest monthly average, and most days with an AO figure of -3 or below.

Moreover, it should be noted that the AO is likely moving into a long-term negative cycle.

The 10-year moving average bottomed out in 1966 (-0.423 10-year average) and then peaked in 1995 (+0.253 10-year average). It has generally been falling since that time. The chart does not include 2010, as the data is not yet final. Based on the preliminary figures, when this year's data is in, the 10-year moving average will have fallen further to around -0.125, the lowest 10-year figure since 1988 (-0.224 10-year average). In addition, 2010 will finish with an annual average of just below -1.025. That would break the record of -0.959 set in 1960. The record high annual average is +1.024, established in 1990.”

What does this mean for the rest of the winter? If guidance has any clue the rest of this month looks to be on the very cold side with opportunities for snow as well!