Feb 13th Daily Weather Discussion

High temperature was 38 degrees at KABE. In the early morning hours there will once again be a chance for snowshowers across the region in PA and as the day progresses these snowshowers and steadier snows will progress further into the NE. However…areas just to the North of NYC along the coast may experience rain showers instead of snowshowers. Otherwise the weather will be partly sunny if you do not experience any of the inclement weather.

Temperatures across the region will be like the tale of two different seasons..To the north in Maine we may not get out of the teens. South of there 30s until you reach PA where low to mid 40s are likely and then from about the southern tier of PA into central and southern Mew Jersey it will be warmer yet with temperatures of 45-50 degrees.

Those that have been waiting for a thaw and a break from the cold can start enjoying the weather this week while the snow and cold lovers will have to take a back seat and wait for the pattern to reload..

The Kona Low & What It Means & Could Mean in about ten days!

Not sure how many of you are familiar with the Kona low.  A Kona low is a cold core low pressure area or extra tropical cyclone that effects Hawaii with various kinds of weather. They typically bring heavy rains, hail storms, flash floods & water spouts and landslides, high winds, large surfs and swells to Hawaii and they typical effect the region for a week or more.

Generally these types of systems teleconnect well to a – EPO block with a negative NAO over Iceland & Greenland. While at the same time this is occurring the Southeast ridge should slide east somewhat and weaken somewhat. This would allow colder air to drain into first the western states and then the central and then into the east. The above normal temperatures should then be confined to the Southeast.

This could be the very reason why the models have started backing off on the warmer air be a longer duration. This also potentially means what we are going thru is a typical thaw which normally occurs every winter but for the past two winters have been occurring later then what is typical.

European Computer Model is beginning to pick up on this idea

As you can see the cold air starts out west and in the central states and then..

As you can see the colder air then bleeds into the east and sets itself up on kind of a gradient pattern. The Southeast ridge will still be there but it should be weaker and more east which would allow the warmer temps in the southeast. ECM means fully support the operational with this occurring as well.

What about the GFS? The GFS also supports what the European Computer Model is showing but at 240 hrs out it is a little colder then the ECM.

So it appears that the backbone of winter might not actually be broken and that winter could very well be making a return across the Northern Mid Atlantic into the Northeast in about 9 days.

If guidance is any indication (GFS) & ECM to an extent ..there could also be a parade of storms that will travel along this gradient boundary that could deliver rounds of wintery weather on the northern side which would be in the colder air .

So lets sit back and enjoy the warm weather for the next week but then just like a roller coaster climbs that hill… once at the top ..it starts to plummet & that very well could be what lies ahead…all thanks to the Kona Low!

Feb 12th Daily Weather Discussion

High temperature on the 11th was 33 degrees after a very cold start to the morning.

Today from the northern tier of PA and into western PA and points to the North and Northeast there is going to be the chance of some snow showers. Along Northern New England will be the best region to pick up these snow showers and steadier snows. Other wise skies will be mostly clear across the rest of the region and in areas that do not receive the snowshowers.

High temperatures are going to be in the 20s north to 30s as you move south until you get to SNJ and perhaps even philadelphia where temperatures could make it into the lower 40s.

Basically the snowshowers that could be occurring will be the result of a disturbance moving thru the ohio valley that will act as a warm front across the region and could trigger off these snowshowers. Any accumulations across PA will be light generally in the order of a T to an inch or so.

The Return Of The Daily Weather Forecast!

With winter weather taking a temporary hiatus ..we will once again return to the daily weather forecast.

The high temperature on Feb 10th @ KABE was 25 degrees ..this was well below normal for this time of the year. Today will be another cold day but not quite as cold as yesterday as we will slowly be starting to moderate and yes shortly we will be headed into a late winter thaw which typically would occur in January. However..let me stress that we do not feel that winter is over…colder conditions and snow chances should return by the last week of February…

Any how lets look at the weather for today Feb 11th. There may be some snowshowers across the western parts of the state of PA as well as some snowshowers coming off the great lakes and the chance for some snowshowers in Maine. Other wise most of the region is going to be under fair skies but cold conditions.

High temperatures will be from the teens to the north with 20s in between and then from about south central Pa and south temperatures will be in the 30s.

Lets Clear The Air & Reflect Back on the 9th to 11th time period..

Folks I feel it is necessary to clear the air here and let you the readers decide the ending verification….

On a weather forum which i will let remain unknown at this point and time..Some of the following statements were posted by myself…

I am going to go out on a limb here with this and say that since the NOGAPS at 138 hrs has actually trended west from previous runs that this is going to be coming more west & Adams thoughts are very much IMO going to be realized by the time this is in short range..

Posted Feb 5th at 12 noon.

Adam is a pro met whom I have much respect for so there is not an issue with him. As you can clearly see we are talking in the time range of 138 hrs and I stated that because the NOGAPS came more west that I thought that this would end up coming more west then what was being modeled. I also then said that in my opinion Adams thoughts of precipitation problems in the cities had a strong probability of being realized by the short range modeling.

At this point and time the only model really showing a hit was the ECM and the rest of the guidance was south and east..However..the ECM was cold enough to show all snow. So my statement of further west was implying to the south and east guidance and also thought at that time it could be more west of the ECM. 138 hrs out in time.

So, a single person accused me of wishcasting because of that statement implying that this would come further west…and perhaps far enough west to cause precipitation problems.

It was that 12 Z ECM run that very day that the ECM ended up going OTS . I continued to stay with the fact that this would trend more N & W in the short term of under 48 hrs. The other person continued with statements such as :

! If you said this WILL trend more north and west that is wishcasting:)I hope it starts to trend north and west but that's just plain old hope and nothing more. I won't say it will bc there is nothing to lend support to such a statement at this time IMO. Look at the PV it just squashes the S/W OTS on every model now

So you can see this person continued to basically hug the models and because A + B + C + D = OTS that this was indeed set in stone at 138 hrs out! That run of the ECM had no precipitation North of Southern VA.

The debate continued and the insults continued and on Feb 6th at 2 PM posted the teleconnections with the following:

Once again you are coming out with wishcasting statements etc but I have not placed a forecast for this system at all. All i have stated is that by the time this gets into the shorter range and by shorter range I have clarified 36-48 and under ..I would not be surprised to see that this has trended more towards the west....

Again referencing that by the time we get into the short range this would trend more north and west. No forecast was even issued at this point and time.

We posted the HPC discussions and MT Hollys discussion where even they acknowledged that this season the trend with these storms in the short range has been more N & W. So these thoughts of more N & W had professional backing and seasonal trend backing them. Again this was not something we were making up or we were wishcasting about..but rather a factual occurrence of the season. By this point and time we were down to 120 hours out. or 5 days. At this point and time a couple others came on with the accusations..

Now as of last night i posted the following post after not posting there for days and keeping my thoughts here..

While the original thinking of this coming far enough N & W to give the cities precipitation problems admittedly failed ...the thinking that this would come further N & W has indeed taken place....
This was back on the 8th...

The original thinking which agreed or backed Pro Met Adams thoughts i already admitted failed! Folks that was at 138 hrs out. Not a forecast but current thoughts based

Back to the post:

And as you can see as of tonight this was never originally suppose to bring locations such as these :
9 PM
Light snow in Dover DE, Easton MD and Stevensville MD...
9:30 PM Light snow and a light dusting so far. Radar looks spotty. Maybe a half inch out of this. (cape May point NJ)
10:00 PM Atlantic City Light Snow
10:30 Lewes DE a Dusting
10:45 PM KPHL Light snow
1 AM ACY light snow!
Same run 66 hrs

Tonight we look like this...

Indeed further to the N & W then what was indicated..... in the short range under 36-48 hrs...
So the extent of the N & W thinking was incorrect but the thought of it coming more N & W in the short term then what was modeled was indeed very much the correct thought ..

So as one can plainly see we came out and admitted that the thinking at 138 hrs was wrong..however..the very factor of this coming more N & W in the short term was correct.

When one forecasts the weather  from 7 days out ..one can not be expected to be 100& accurate at that time range and one has to continue to watch the guidance teleconnectors etc…and fine tune there thinking as we get closer to the event which was done on this blog.

So i decided i would PM this person to discuss it in privacy and messaged him saying essentially what i have posted above which was my posts and my thoughts where admitting the thoughts at 138 hrs out were incorrect but the overall thought process of this coming more west was indeed correct..this was part of that message :

See, I have nothing to hide but i am not afraid to go against the professionals etc ..when i am wrong i will admit when i am wrong unlike the professionals who are wrong 50 % of the time or greater. I already admitted that i was wrong on the thought process in the medium long range of this coming far enough north and west for the precipitation problems..but the result in the end was the further N & W then what the models were indicating ended up being correct. it happened under the 36-48 hr time frame.
If you looked at HPC maps yesterday for QPF from the event they had NADA in SNJ. I was talking about SNJ getting a light snowfall from Tuesday already...
I can admit when i am wrong and that post did admit what aspect was wrong but some people have a hard time admitting when a non pro is correct in there thoughts versus others.
Respectfully Yours,
Matt Strouse

Can you believe the response that i got back?  He bolded this part of the above…

. I already admitted that i was wrong on the thought process in the medium long range of this coming far enough north and west for the precipitation problems.

And then here was the response:

As highlighted above this is what I was pointing out from day one that this thought process was incorrect and that is all. You were wrong and you are dancing around the fact that what I was arguing with you about was the statement you made that the surface low would indeed track further north and west as was modeled at the time you made the comment and therefore bring mixed precipitation to south and east areas. Which was completely not what occurred

Already admitted this part was wrong in last nights post ..

That's what I was taking issue with, not what you eventually forecasted once inside 48 hrs. You were just dead wrong on what I and everyone else was taking issue with. How could we have been arguing your 48 hr forecast when the discussion was on going in excess of 72 hrs from the event? Your dancing around the fact that what you said that day, which is the only thing I took issue with was WRONG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I never once said you made a forecast or anything near that. You said " I am going to go out on a limb and agree with AMPSU and yada yada North and west" That was your statement that I was referencing the entire time and it was WRONG!!!! That is it end of argument! I don't care if inside of 48 hours you had overrunning further north and west that the HPC b/c that was irrelevant to my argument with you!

As you can see the issue was at 138 hrs out the thought was it would come far enough north and west to cause precip problems and that has been admitted to as being wrong.. However..he has a problem with admitting that it did indeed trend more N & W then what was modeled in the short term which is the thought process that i stuck with from days out. And folks you can see above that this indeed did happen! We have nothing to hide..

He goes on..

It's not only this that prompted me to bring it up, but as you can tell many people on this site seem to have a problem with you b/c even though you can't see it you have a blatant bias for the Lehigh Valley and you are extremely annoying! Good day and I am done with this conversation. Good luck to you and your forecasting endeavors

Yes , it was a total of him and three others that were on the same time and that represents many people?  And this was suppose to be the end of the discussion via him.

Another message: minutes later:

BTW I am 33 years old. I don't doubt your knowledge just your arrogance and in the face of fallacy! That's it. I really think for your own good you need to realize that you come off very poorly on this site and that is why people take such issue with you. I am glad that you are able to find 1200 idiots to follow your forecasts. To only issue a final call at 24 hrs is not really doing anyone any favors if you ask me. Anybody can look at a couple computer models, water vapor loops, radar and current observations at 24 hrs and make a fairly accurate forecast, so you don't impress me one bit!

Arrogance in the face of fallacy? Did I not already admit that the thoughts at 138 hrs out were not correct? As we also seen there was no forecast issued because readers of this blog know and the forum (R.W.S forum) know that unless there is 100% confidence a forecast is not issued till 48 hrs (prelim) and 24 hrs for final.

So then he goes on to INSULT the followers of this blog and followers of the forum & at the same time says anyone can make a forecast and map at 24 hrs out and it is not doing anyone any favors.

Folks…when do the professionals such as the National Weather Service generally come out with there accumulation maps? Is it not 24 hrs before the event?

We issue one if one needs to be issued 48 hrs before the event…and with the way this winter has been that has been a tedious job with events trending more N & W inside 48 hrs. That is why we then finalize at 24 hrs.

However..things are pretty clear we get the word out to the members of this blog and forum with scenario maps sometimes as far ahead as 7 days if confidence is high and 24 hrs out before the pros for accumulation maps. .

The above is all pretty clear..Thoughts at 138 hrs out were indeed wrong and admitted to be wrong as well with the verification. However..the thinking that this would come further N & W was indeed correct as the locations that received snowfall last night testify when the statement about this coming further north and west then modeled was made at 138 hrs. The extent of the N & W was wrong.

Readers you be the judge! Like i have stated we here at R.W.S have nothing to hide!

A Look At The Radar!

Folks in SNJ ..I want you to look at this radar…This radar shows that if it was not for the dry air in place that you guys from SNJ into CNJ and NYC would be receiving light snow…all from a system that was suppose to pass far enough south and east not to effect the area.

What happened essentially is the storm has indeed come more N& W with its precipitation shield and has moved into the area but because of the dry air mass that is in place it is too dry to reach the ground. So you have precipitation aloft falling but can not reach down to the ground without the column moistening up.

So the factor of whether this could come more north or west can be laid to rest because the precipitation shield was never suppose to make it as far north as what it has. It even has precipitation aloft over KABE….

9 PM

Light snow in Dover DE, Easton MD and Stevensville MD...

9:30 PM Light snow and a light dusting so far. Radar looks spotty. Maybe a half inch out of this. (cape May point NJ)

10:00 PM Atlantic City Light Snow

10:30 Lewes DE a Dusting

10:45 PM KPHL Light snow

2 AM

Streets and everything covered.
1" Bethany Beach, DE

A Brief Update on the 9th -11th

Brief update as I have to take my other half to the Surgeons..i will try to update this later this evening.

Right now steering currents are set up that we would track up just to around Southern Delaware. Of course these are going to change but it will be important to watch how this ridge flexes..

GFS means have come more NW as well as the operational with the QPF shield and now bring very light QPF into SE PA & SNE and SNJ…

Whether this delivers a storm is not the question..chance are it will not..however..the original argument and debate was that this would come more N & W in the short term and this is exactly what it has done!