Feb 20-22nd 00z ECM Model Update

Last nights 00z ECM takes the primary area of low pressure into Ohio by 174 hours.By 180 hrs it is now over SW PA but has started transferring to a coastal low at 174 hrs..which at 180 hrs is located about 50 miles east of SNJ. From there the low pressure moves ENE. The 00z ECM is cold enough for majority of the region from just North of KPHL to be mainly an all snow event. Cities such as KPHL would probably be a wintery mix to snow ..NYC looks to be all snow…and in MD it looks like it  would be along the lines of a wintery mix as well. Temperatures are mainly in the 20s or 30s.

At this point and time we are only giving model interpretation and not an actual forecast. This interpretation is based on the 850s and surface temps and precip maps every 6 hrs. So it is the model verbatim.

Basically what appears to be looking likely is that if you are on the north side of the Polar Boundary then you will be in the region that would be cold enough for frozen precipitation. If you are south of that boundary then you would be mainly rain. It is way to early to know where this polar boundary will set up but one thing is obvious…there is a threat on the table …and winter is set to return!

Feb 15th Daily Weather Discussion

High temperature on the 14th @ KABE was 52 degrees. This was well above normal for the time of the year.

However..like a roller coaster on its way downhill ..that is what todays weather will be like as far as temperatures. It will be like a completely different world today compared to yesterday.

For the most part it will be a partly sunny day ..Perhaps over NC PA and SC NY there would be some snowshowers but for the most part …partly cloudy and windy with winds gusting as high as 40 miles early. High temperatures will be in the single digits to teens and 20s from Maine into CNY. To the low 30s in NE PA to the lower and middle 30s thru out the central tier of PA and then the upper 30s in the KPHL region and southern Jersey region. South of there 40s will still be possible.

However…after today temperatures will once again rebound and for 2-3 days become very spring like..However…as the previous post suggests…might be wise to not get use to it!

Have a great day and will be back online after 7 PM today!

Feb 20-22nd Time Period Thru The Eyes Of the 00z GFS..

The above images are from the most recent GFS model run. As you can see they are the surface temps and these surface temps if realized indicate the potential for a ICE storm to the North of KPHL into East central PA/Central PA and into NE PA.  Just one piece of tonights guidance however..even though it appears somewhat slower then the ECM was at 12 Z ..this is the first run that has actually showed something like this as potentially happening and is pretty much in agreement with the ECM before yesterdays 12 Z ..

We will continue to monitor this time period and system for what seems like not only the return of winter but the potential for a ice/snow event across parts of the region.

ECM Model Update for Feb 20-22nd Time Frame!

You may have heard or read on the internet that the ECM has caved into the GFS. This statement has some partial truth to it. However..when a model run changes from the consistency that it was showing for several runs one has to proceed with caution. So lets first look at the 12 Z ECM Operational Run..

It seems that from this image it has lost its first over running situation. Over running is basically WAA riding over top of colder air and does not always represent a storm. There is moisture on the precipitation maps but it does kind of fade it out on the 12 Z run. You can see the 850s however at that time are fairly chilly.

Part two..

This is where the operational has gone over to the way of the GFS.

You can see it really deepens this system now and because of that it pulls it towards the Great lakes which sends warm air up and out ahead of it..

But lets just wait a second..can we really say that the ECM has trended towards the GFS after just one run? I suppose if we were the type that hugged the models we could & I suppose if we wanted to just take the operational run as verbatim that we could. However..we generally know that if a system all of a sudden shows something different ..that this generally means it is time to turn to the models ensembles. So that is what we shall do at this time.

When we do this..we see a totally different picture being painted ..We do have the first over running situation and we also have the second part but what we notice are two important things.

1. The ensemble means are alot colder then the operational run

2. The ensemble means are further to the south with the system.

So..what we can say at this point and time is that the operational run is out of harmony with its ensemble means. 

So we can either believe the ECM has caved in to the GFS or we can realize that this operational run stands in contrast to its own means.

So we will continue to monitor this time frame for the potential return to winter and potential for fun and games once again for parts of the region!

ECM Model Update from 00z For Feb 20-22nd

Just a quick brief update on this time period from the 00z ECM. It now has the system in two pieces instead of one piece of energy. First one moves. First one comes thru between 156 and 168 hrs out which is Sunday. Temperatures thru out the region are basically 30-35 degrees.

Second part of the system looks to come thru starting about 174 hours out. Which would be late sunday night around 1 AM ..(technically 1 AM monday) Then precipitation moves out of the region by about 204 hrs out which would be tuesday morning. Temperatures for this part are actually colder.

So the difference this run compared to 12 Z is instead of one solid piece of energy it brings it thru as two separate over running events. In the big cities of the NE we are probably looking at ICE..further to the N & W we would be looking at Mainly snow & Ice.

Again this is not a forecast but model interpretation and you do not see that many people talking about it because they are caught up in the “back of winter has been broken” mentality and also the “thaw” that we are currently going thru. The thaw that is temporary. We will continue to monitor this latest system and see if other guidance begins to line up with the European guidance!

February 14th Daily Weather Discussion

High temperature on the 13th was 42 degrees which was 4 degrees above normal for the time of the year. Although with the overnight low of 14 the day came out on a negative departure.

Basically  today will be a partly cloudy sky across most of the region however there will be some scattered rain and snow showers about thru out the NE ..from about the N tier of PA and point to the North.Again these are going to be scattered for the most part.

High temps today will be in the 20s and 30s thru most of Maine to the 40s elsewhere. From about southern PA into SNJ and points south temps will be in the 50s and some locations especially south of PA into MD /DE will flirt with the 60s.

Our feb thaw has warmed..but is winter really over? Stay tuned thru this thaw to find out the answer!

Feb 20-22nd Time Period ..Could Snow and Ice Return To Parts Of The Region.

This is not a forecast by any means but rather just model output of what the 12 Z ECM on the 13th of February showed.

What you are looking at above is basically the representation of where the 850s start at below freezing and how they proceed thru out the event. If you are on the Northern side of those lines they you would be looking at Frozen precipitation but as the event proceeds you then have to be on the northern side of the final line. That is about the furthest north that the 850s make it before they start to sink southwards again.

The event is about 30 hours round or about of precipitation Temperatures are generally in the 30s ..30-35 marker as you move thru those lines above…So if you are north of the yellow line you never get above that 30-35 marker.

So verbatim it would go something like this..

From the red to the blue line you would start in the frozen variety but you would change over to rain.

From the blue to yellow line you would also start out as frozen and probably more of a longer duration before changing over as well..

And if you are north of the Yellow line you would primarily remain all frozen.

More or less appears to be a primary heading into Ohio that ends up handing off to a secondary. This system on the ECM is very moisture laded.

We made a post yesterday about watching what happens because of the Kona Low and how this could result in a gradient pattern and this is essentially what you are seeing occur here on this 12 Z run.

Will it happen? Way to early to say but never the less it looks like in the next 8+ days the weather could get very interesting & this would be after the area flirts with the 60 degree mark.

Is the back bone of winter broken or is it just reloading?

Stay tuned