July 18th Severe Weather Potential

The above map is based off the latest GFS/NAM/SREF. The area in red lines is the area that we think has the potential for a moderate risk for straight line winds and large hail. This does not necessarily mean that SPC will issue one but we feel the potential does exist.

Warm southerly or southwesterly flow will be moving into the region. The weather is going to take a turn for being hot and sticky across the region.

With this heat ..we also have the potential for garden variety thunderstorms as well as severe thunderstorms almost on a daily basis starting with tomorrow.

Low pressure will be in southern Canada above Lake superior by 00z this evening. From this low pressure is a cold front that is stretching south and west to another low pressure over the western part of the Dakotas.

By 00z tomorrow evening low pressure should be over Northern Michigan and the cold front is going to start pushing towards the south and be across Northern NY at that time. A lee trough should also develop.

CAPE will be 500-5000 depending on where you live

Lift index will generally be in the –4 to –8 range.

Mid level lapse rates will be decent at 6.0-6.5

The main threats from these storms will be straight line winds over 60 MPH and large hail. The showers and thunderstorms will break out in advance and ahead of the cold front.

Stay tuned for further information should it become necessary

July 17th Severe Weather Outlook

Stationary front continues to reside across the south with a low pressure area off the southeast coast. This front will continue to keep showers and thunderstorms across the southeast with the possibility of some of them in the Louisiana becoming severe.

Meanwhile across the northern areas there are multiple pieces of energy over the montana region with a cold front extending into canada with a low pressure area moving across Canada. It will be this front and these pieces of energy moving across the Northern Periphery of the heat ridge that is across the central part of the country that will be responsible for severe weather across the northern plain states.

A lee trough should start to develop on Monday then and the cold front to the north will start to drop towards the south and this cold front could be responsible for some severe weather potential on monday across the Northeast region but it could start to bring showers and thunderstorms into ohio and west PA already after 8 PM tomorrow evening…

Once again the main threat with any storms will be winds and hail but in the evening time the lower level jet is predicted to strengthen and this could bring the chance of some tornados into the northern plains region and Great lakes region.

July 16th Severe Weather Outlook

Stationary front continues to be draped across the southeast with a low pressure over the florida panhandle. Low pressure over SE Colorado connected to a warm front which is associated or connected to the stationary front.

Multiple pieces of energy over the Dakotas & Montana with a cold front.

It will be these features that will continue to bring the chance of severe weather to the regions highlighted above with a very warm humid air mass in place thanks to an upper level ridge across the region.

CAPE values will be as high as 4000

Shear between 40-50 knots which is more then ample for severe thunderstorms.

Lift index will be 0 to –10 across the area..

Mid level lapse rates go from 5.5 to 8 depending where you are in the zone above.

All and all we think that the storms should begin to develop towards evening and this would be more of an evening threat for the potential of large hail and strong damaging winds.

July 15th Severe Weather Outlook

Stationary front has moved further south across the deep south. Low pressure is off the coast of the carolinas attached to this stationary front.

This is the low pressure that some weather outlets were talking about tropical development but as long as it would be associated and attached to a frontal system it can not be considered tropical.

Anyways that stationary front goes back west to another area of low pressure over Mississippi/Alabama border…to a low pressure over SE Colorado.

Another frontal system with an area of low pressure over SE Montana.

The low over Montana is going to slowly move east pushing a warm front to the north and east.

A cold front from a low pressure system over Canada will catch up with this area of low pressure and warm front.

So by 00z we have a warm front with a area of low pressure over the Dakotas with the warm front stretching towards upper Michigan. The cold front on top of this area of low pressure and then stretching back west to the PNW with multiple pieces of energy.

This will be the focal point for storms in that region.

And it will be the stationary front across the south that continues to provide showers and thunderstorms with the potential for some to be severe.

The main threats of severe will once again be large hail and winds though isolated tornado’s can not be ruled out across parts of the region. Mainly the NE side of the low pressure system .

July 14th Severe Weather Outlook

Currently there is a low pressure system along the carolina coast line and a stationary front draped west to east to a low pressure system over Northern Alabama and then that stationary front runs NW into a low pressure over Montana and another one over Canada.

Multiple pieces of energy are also over the rockies and these impulses will start lifting NE and the stationary front out west will start to move North as a warm front while over the southeast it remains stationary.

This front in the southeast will be responsible for the potential for severe weather and heavy rains .

A very moist southwest flow is in place thanks to a upper level ridge across the central united states.

Severe Parameters :

Shear of 35-50 knots across the region

CAPE from 500-5000 depending on where you live

Lift index is 0 to –8 depending on where you live

Hail and damaging winds appear to be the primary threats for tomorrow however a tornado can not be ruled out!

July 12th Severe Weather Outlook

Weather Synopsis

Low pressure in SE Canada with a cold front trailing south and west approaching NE Ohio and trailing back west cutting indiana and illinois in half to a low pressure over the Kansas /Nebraska borderline.

This front will continue to move off to the south and the east and should be crossing the Eastern Pa region between 2 PM and 8 PM. However, with a CAP in place PA and most of the NE is not expecting to see anything in the way of severe weather. In Maine ..close proximity to the low pressure in Southeastern Canada as it moves to the east should bring showers and thunderstorms with some of them being severe.

There will be multiple pieces of energy moving along this front and one piece of energy which we talk about above over the KS/Nebraska border will move east to a position near Eastern Missouri by evening time.

It will be this front and multiple shortwave energies and associated troughs that will trigger the severe weather potential today!

As was the case with yesterday it looks like hail and winds in excess of 60 MPH will be the main weather threats.

As a side note it is very hot across majority of the region so please make sure you intake plenty of fluids!

July 11th Severe Weather Potential

The above image is based off the latest SREF /GFS combination. We have included portions of the Northeast in this outlook due to a Upper level trough should be moving across the lakes into the Northeast.

Essentially most of the conus from the central part of the US into the east is under the influence of ridging. This is providing a very moist atmosphere along with some very warm to hot temperatures.

At the surface there is a stationary front across the southeast with an area of low pressure off the southeast coast over the atlantic. By this evening there is expected to be multiple pieces of energy which are expected to move off to the Northeast.

By tomorrow evening there should be a cold front stretching SW from a low pressure in southern canada. As this low moves east it will drag and drop the cold front south . It is the combination of this trough moving south and east over the lakes and the cold front dropping south and east that will bring the potential for showers and thunderstorms some of which could be severe into the Northeast.

Further west it will be the multiple shortwave troughs moving from the southwest towards the Northeast into a very warm and moist air mass.

The main threats will be winds and hail with any of these storms ..however..an isolated tornado can not be ruled out. As the evening progresses the lower level jet is anticipated to strengthen so this could keep severe weather going into the overnight hours in areas off to the west particularly in the mid Missouri Valley region.

Stay tuned for more information.