Invest 92 L Thoughts

National Hurricane Center has not yet recognized this as a Invest but it has been activated and CIMSS Analysis also has it shown as an invest.

This could be the first Cape Verde system this season but the question is whether or not it can actually develop into anything or not.

So lets look at the environment surrounding the system.

First thing one notices is that there is a lot of dry air around this system. This much dry air is almost a complete death sentence from the get go.

Associated with all the dry air is 10-20 knots of shear. While not detrimental alone, with the dry air combination this will prevent development from occurring.

The third thing working against this developing is the broad elongated nature of the system. Remember the more broad and elongated the longer it takes to spin and tighten up a center of circulation.

This brings us to the convergence and divergence which at this present time is lacking across the system. Either south or to the west of the system lies the greatest areas of convergence and divergence.

So as you can see from the information above the chances of this system developing are very low and we would essentially place development in the next 48 hrs as 0 %.

Guidance..the global forecasting system or GFS does develop this system but the latest European Computer Model does not develop the system and right now we would have to lean towards the ECM as it was the model that performed best with Emily.

Stay tuned! Next update on this will be 24 hrs from now!

Remnants of Emily

National Hurricane Center has more or less been playing up and down with this system. For most of yesterday it started as a 60% chance of redeveloping into a tropical storm..then stewart raises the ante to 70% , now as of today it is back down to 60% but the question is..Is that where it should be? Lets look at some things this early morning..

First of all lets look at the latest water vapor image..

As the image above clearly shows there is not much convection associated with this system..

This is a recent ASCAT pass and you can see this to is not showing much of anything even there at the surface..

Shear continues to not be a problem with this system. With only 5-10 knots of shear this would not be detrimental to development. Convergence and divergence are also decent with the system. So what is the problem.

We feel there are several problems and one of them is once again the fact that this system again has become very broad and elongated. Dry air is also starting to come closer to the system again. Remember the broader the system the longer it will take to tighten up and spin up a center of circulation.

So we are looking at some of the same problems this system has been facing. Another factor could be land interaction.

So the NHC has this at 60% but is there anything with guidance to support redevelopment?

Lets look at the guidance:

12 Z ECM barely even shows a surface reflection.

00z ECM says no tropical depression, storm or hurricane there..What about the GFS?

GFS also shows this as a weak open wave or area of low pressure.

So as you can see guidance from the main global models do not support redevelopment. So , we are not sure what the National Hurricane Center is seeing at this point and time but we would put development of this remnant low of Emily at 10% and that could be generous.

We will continue to monitor this situation but remember we have been ahead of NHC with this from the beginning!

August 6th Severe Weather Potential

The above map is based on the latest SREF with a blend of the NAM/GFS

CAPE ranges from 500-4000 depending on where you live within the zone

Lift Index ranges from 0 to –10 again depending where you are in the zone

Mid level lapse rates are 5.5-7.5 depending on where you are..

Poor midlevel lapse rates are over the mid atlantic region so severe chances here would be lower then out in the midwest to the plains.

Shear is greatest in the lakes region where 30 knots + can be found..

Stationary front resides across the southeast-stretching from west to east with a low pressure over NW GA and another low pressure over the OK/TX panhandle. This stationary front is being the focus for showers and thunderstorms today with some very isolated severe storms.

This front will pretty much stay in place at least thru 12 Z tomorrow morning and then it will begin to lift towards the north as a warm front.

Meanwhile there will be some shortwave troughs that will move across the region above that will be effecting the weather during the day tomorrow. These troughs will be lifting in from the west and one of these shortwave troughs should  develop a low pressure over western/central PA and provide some showers and thunderstorms across the area..Potential for some isolated severe but with the mid level lapse rates being low, lower shear..places in PA may end up with more in the way of garden variety type storms.

It will be these impulses that move thru that will bring that chance for severe. We think the greatest threats will be wind and hail..though some tornado’s can not be ruled out in the plains states to the great lakes region.

Emily-What Happened To You?

This is the latest water vapor image of what is left of Emily. Emily has degenerated into a remnant low.

If you have been following our updates on Emily from the start we mentioned that if it kept heading into a westerly direction that it was due to it being a weaker system. And we pointed out the problems that it had to face and overcome from the beginning which was the dry air and the mid level shear. Factor in the fact that the ECM never really developed this system and you had a forecast for diminishing instead of becoming the first hurricane of the season in the Atlantic.

It took till today for the National Hurricane Center to realize what we realized about 48 hrs ago.

We will watch this to see if it could redevelop but at this point and time we are leaning away from that happening!

Stay tuned to the outlet that lets you know before the pros know!

Following Emily’s Adventures!

The above is the latest visible and water vapor shot of Tropical Storm Emily. Tropical storm Emily is just to the south of Hispanola. This area is known as shredderola because of its abilities to shred tropical systems. However..lets look at the environment around Emily to see what else could be effecting her:

As you can see by looking at the above images that the shear is still around 10-20 knots around the system. While this will not destroy a system it will indeed cause development to be more slow. Convergence and divergence is decent ..however..the vorticity has become more elongated and stretched then it was yesterday when the last update was issued. Dry air is still on all sides of this system but it is not quite as dense as it was yesterday at this time off to Emily’s west and northwest..

If one recalls the model guidance history with this system the global models were in a split camp. GFS was developing this system and taking a hurricane off the SE coast. ECM however kept the system generally weak with each run and veered a weak system towards Fl. Now both these models are suggesting a very weak system if not basically diminished system.

So besides the shear and the dry air that Emily is still dealing with there is still a question of what is Hispanola and Cuba going to do to the system? We mentioned yesterday about the weaker the system stays the more West it will move compared to NW because of the steering currents that were in place. Steering currents have not changed to much and this would continue to be the case that she would move WNW.

Convection appears to be moving NW on the latest loop but it looks like the LLC lower level circulation is still moving off to the West. So we are still dealing with a weak system and perhaps this is an indication of a further weakening or decoupling. We will have to see what is left of Emily once Emily does come on the other side of Hispanola or Cuba.

Right now we are still leaning towards becoming an open wave heading towards Florida.

Stay tuned for further updates!

Tropical Storm Emily-The Latest

First thing you notice about the most recent visible image above is that the center of emily has been exposed. In other words you are looking at a naked circulation. Many people are surprised by this as they have been thinking that this is going to become a hurricane. We have been talking about the problems Emily has been facing from day 1 and how this would only cause slow development. Quite frankly, we were a little surprised to even see this become organized enough to get upgraded beyond depression stage. Its convection has been mainly in a pulsing style from its conception and it has always been a complete disorganized mess.

As you can see from the above images besides the center being exposed you can see shear of 10-20 knots and close to above 20 knots and dry air. This dry air has been around since the beginning and has been and will continue to plague Emily.

Vorticity is still tilted from SW to NE and while there is some convergence the best lies to the SE while the COC (exposed) continues to move west. The best divergence also lies behind the system.

As you can see the steering currents would continue to track this off to the west. Perhaps somewhat north of west.

Emily is still expected to track off to the NW but if she continues to remain weak she may just keep tracking off towards the west. This would mean she would miss the islands and perhaps if she ever does start to turn NW she may become more of a GOM threat.

We think the more likely course is that if the COC continues to move west and decouple away from the convection then Emily is just going to diminish into an open wave trough.

Stay tuned for more information

Tropical Storm Emily Latest Thoughts!

While away from the internet yesterday Invest 91 L was upgraded to a Tropical Storm. While appearance is looking pretty good the latest recon shows winds at the surface are only 31 MPH…Folks this would not be a tropical storm yet alone a depression if this continues to be the case.

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 27kts (~ 31.1mph)

The same problem that has existed from day 1 with this invest continues to keep development very slow and we can not say that we are surprised by this occurring.

Now, from the last time we updated on this at that point and time shear was only at 5-10 knots. Latest shear suggests that we are actually at 10-20 knots now

Convergence and divergence is good at the present time and the vorticity has decreased ..however..we are still dealing with a broad and elongated system..

Steering winds continue to suggest that this should move off to the west northwest…

As far as guidance is concerned ..ECM essentially opens this up and keeps it as a weak wave and slides it away from the east coast..

You can see this reflected in the 12 Z ECM above.

And the latest guidance curves this away from the USA. Now latest recon since that last report posted above has boosted winds to 50 mph. From what I can see via satellite and water vapor it would appear to be more a pulsating causing the higher winds of 50 MPH. Though recon mentions this is not well organized and they had difficulty with locating the center.

The question becomes what happens with emily? How does hispanola effect it and these recurves would need to start pretty soon and it does not appear that right now steering currents would support a turn to the NW..

If Emily continues heading west then starts to turn NW it could take it directly over Hispanola and Hispanola kind of acts like a shredder due to higher terrain when it comes to tropical systems. IF Emily can manage to maintain a weaker inner core then there is a greater chance of surviving Hispanola and possibly re intensifying.

At the present time..we still do not like the idea of a Category 1 hurricane and are leaning more or less towards the ECM scenario.

Stay tuned for further information!