Let us start off by taking a look at where we have been for the first 9 days of the month of January
Majority of the region has been above normal...some areas are still somewhat below normal but these are confined to Northern New England and over western PA to ohio and WV where it is seasonal to slightly below but keep in mind that this is BEFORE the real warm up occurs...
To give you an example here is Day 3 Max temperatures from HPC as of this morning update
These will spike the departures to the positive side even more then what they should be and keep in mind that majority of your weather outlets were calling for a change to colder weather come January based off the CFS showing a colder January. This has not been the case and the reason why is quite simple..
The PNA is shown to be extremely negative .This in combination with the MJO being into phase 5.
Leads to this type of look..
So the question becomes where are we going? There is no doubt that over the next 4-5 days we are going to continue to be above normal and that takes us thru the first half of the month of January. So can January be salvaged? Is there a pattern change on the way?
This is all going to be dependent on what happens with the MJO and the skill of the models forecasting the MJO is not to reliable and can change from day to day but as of right now they are mainly suggesting that after a stint in Phase 7
The MJO could be heading back into or at least looping thru Phase 6 which would show the following:
So lets look at the MJO forecasts but before we do lets just take a look at the skill of the forecasts via the verification of the MJO
So with that in mind lets look at the forecasts...
The full plume of the NCEP GEFS loops the MJO thru Phase 6 and stays in Phase 6.
And even looking at this image of the NCEP GEFS it shows a brief stint in phase 7 before moving back into phase 6. This would indicate a shot of colder air followed by moderation in temps before perhaps heading back to phase 7 for a shot of colder air again...
UKMET takes the MJO into phase 7 which would definitely represent a colder temperature regime.
ECM takes it into and thru Phase 6 (warmer) and then briefly into phase 7 (colder) and then back into Phase 6 (warmer) ..
ECM ensembles more or less take it between phases 6 and 7 straddling the border and do a loop into 6 before going back into 7 ..in other words a return to colder weather ..then briefly moderating before back to colder weather..
GGEM shows the MJO staying in phase 6. Which would indicate solely on the MJO more in the way of milder weather.
So as you can see the verification of the MJO forecasts has not been great and they are basically either saying Phase 7 or phase 7 before heading back to phase 6.
So now lets look at the actual teleconnections and then we will take a look at the actual model guidance..
As we noted the PNA is currently negative or forecasted to go negative if using CPC
The AO is slightly positive right now but anticipated to go negative but then the members are kind of divided on whether it stays negative or goes back positive..
Most members show it staying negative and a couple quite negative.
And essentially the same thing can be said about the NAO with it being slightly positive right now but heading into the negative territory. However a few members show going back positive. And then we have the EPO which according to this graph
Is more of a neutral negative then going completely negative ..and then is more of a neutral positive.
Remember to really get sustained cold weather into the east you want to see the following:
A negative AO (check)
A negative NAO (check)
A negative EPO (somewhat check)
And a positive PNA (not checked)
MJO into Phases 7 ,8 or 1 with 8 or 1 being the best for East Coast storms. (somewhat uncertain)
So lets look at the guidance...
This is the 12 Z European Computer guidance and it brings the coldest of the air into the Mid Atlantic and the Northeast at 216 hrs out and then lifts the coldest of the air into New England by 240 hours out.
This run is actually warmer over the midwest then last nights 00z ECM run as this image will show..
The GFS shows the coldest of the air actually over the Midwest region during the same time as the ECM above.. except at 192 hours out when it is in the NE region..
But by the 11-15 day range it begins to warm up.. on the operational and looking at the ensembles..
And if you look at the ensembles from the past three runs you can see this as well..
Here was 00z
Here was 6 Z
So are we heading into a Major pattern change or are we looking at a transient shot of colder air? With the PNA remaining strongly negative and the MJO moving thru the warm phases and looking to go into phase 7 briefly before heading back towards phase 6.. the most logical conclusion based on teleconnections would be to expect a return to colder weather (but transient) before moderating once again to more seasonal temperatures to perhaps slightly above seasonal to end out the month of January.
If we were to get the PNA to go positive while the NAO is negative and the AO is negative with a negative EPO we could then be talking about a more sustained shot of colder weather. Its all dependent on the PNA and the MJO and we will continue to monitor this and update this .
Presently looks like a transient shot of colder air followed by moderation (notice this does not mean warm it just means not as cold as it will be at around 216 hrs out)...so we can not at this point and time call this a pattern change until we see what the PNA and the MJO actually do. If the MJO makes it into phase 7 and progresses thru to 8 and 1 then we could have a Major pattern change but right now none of the guidance is suggesting that so we can not be forecasting that to occur.
Meanwhile it will be warm with temperatures into the 50s and maybe near 60 which is well above normal for this time of the year as much as 20 degrees above normal and a rain event early next week before the colder air arrives. The only frozen could be North of NYC ...other wise New England region.
We are going to start this off simply by saying the one thing that sets us apart from the rest is that we refuse to hype the weather. We refuse to wishcast the weather. We prefer instead to bring you forecasts that are based on guidance and teleconnections and NOT what we want to happen or what we want to SEE happen. With that preface and in order to understand where we are going lets look at the current MJO or Madden Julian Oscillation and what it means for us. There is no sugar coating it just straight out facts with graphs to back it up..
One image is for the last 90 days and one image is for the last 40 days. One takes us to the 3rd and one takes us to the 4th..However...what they both have in common is that they both show the MJO in phase 4. What does phase 4 mean?
Phase 4 for the month of January is above and you can see that if you are a cold and snow lover you do NOT want the MJO to be in phase 4. What about phase 5?
Well if phase 4 was not what we wanted we can see that phase 5 is also not something cold and snow lovers would want.
The same thing can be said for phase 6..
So..if you are a cold and snow lover where do you want the MJO to be?
You want to see the MJO in phases 7 or 8 preferably or phases 1 and 2. But we are not there. We are currently in phase 4. This means the MJO forecast would be for temperatures to be above normal across the east and no surprise this is what the guidance is showing and suggesting to occur..
Lets look at the weekend on the ECM..
GFS is not much different from the ECM at least in the look across the country with the 850 temps , though it is slightly cooler..
This is because the GFS is more progressive in nature and tends to rush colder air situations. But you can see across the east it is warm and above normal and folks this is because of the MJO.
So based ONLY on the MJO you need to see the MJO progress into the more favorable phases of 7.8 or 1 and 2. However this is only one piece of the puzzle...
Right now we have a neutral positive NAO but this is forecast to go negative. This is a positive thing for those who want cold and snow across the east.
The AO is right around neutral and is forecasted by most members to plummet...this is another good thing for those who want cold and snow across the east...
So what is the problem one may ask...why is it we can not get the cold sustained into the east? Because there is a little devil in the details and that devil is called the PNA..
The PNA is forecasted to go quite negative over the next several days. Still yet one other small detail is the EPO. Which is positive presently...
So what happens when you have a - NAO and a - AO and a - PNA with a positive EPO (even IF the EPO goes negative) is you get a release of colder air into the USA that sets up the trough to the west of the east coast ..centered over the central to western part of the conus and you get a Southeast ridge in the east due to the - PNA.
With this setup you have storms that will cut to the west of all the major cities of the NE and head towards the lakes ..and produce warmer temperatures along with rain...
So what do you want to look for if you are a cold and snow lover in the east?
1. A negative NAO (Check)
2. A negative AO (check)
3. A positive PNA (nope)
4. A negative EPO (nope)
5 Favorable MJO phases of 7,8 or 1, 2 (Nope)
This is why NOAA has released these images and this is what the guidance supports. This is what the MJO supports and this is what the teleconnections support.
This is simple straight hard facts backed up with the teleconnections and guidance.
Now does the pattern become more favorable after the 20th? This is going to be highly dependent on what the - PNA decides to do while we have a favorable NAO and AO. Other wise the favorable NAO and AO could just go to waste ....
As for now...its going to be above normal and temperatures will moderate even more by the weekend with temperatures going into the 50s in places like KPHL, ABE etc ....
Two years in a row we have had to step back and take a look at the winter forecast and see what has gone wrong and revise that forecast. The first year was the 2011-2012 winter forecast and this year is going to be the second time where we have had to re-evaluate what was issued.
In the beginning it seemed pretty crystal clear that this winter was going to be a weak El Nino and we were not alone on this thinking as NOAA had issued an El Nino watch. Instead the warm waters faded and we were left with this...
As you can see region 3.4 is anything but warm and we are now into neutral territory. So, the much anticipated El Nino failed to materialize and we are left with a winter with a neutral enso.
So we need to step back and look at where we have been so far this winter of 2012-2013.
The above is for the month of December and it has been a warmer then normal month over all across the northeast. This has been the case for the United States as a whole for the most part..
This once again is something that was not anticipated to occur this winter season and the reasons are pretty familiar to us after last winter.
1. A false Enso signal for the winter
2. Lower heights over Alaska
3. A displaced polar vortex
4. Teleconnections just not where they should be to deliver the colder air ..
5. A lack of sustained blocking (though there has been some blocking)
A look very similar to last year & a pattern very similar to last year ..the only difference is the ENSO status.
The teleconnections not favorable...
The NAO being positive...
The AO going positive ..
The PNA being mainly negative (now positive) but expected to dip back negative once again..
The EPO being mainly positive..
All these teleconnections are the exact opposite of what you want to see if you want cold and snow across the east in winter. Remember you want a - NAO - AO + PNA and a - EPO. When you have a - PNA with a - NAO and - AO this simply allows the colder air to go into the west coast and you get a west coast trough.
Of course the wild card is always a SSW or a sudden stratospheric warming event. Of course this was the wildcard that was highly anticipated last winter and never showed itself and it seems that once winters take a turn south that card starts to get played because its the last hope for winter. And remember that a SSW has to propagate to the lower levels of the atmosphere and then it takes 2-3 weeks before you start to see any results of the SSW. So for example lets say one is starting now to occur.. and this would propagate down to the lower levels over the next week ..we would be looking at about Feb 1 or around there to start experiencing and seeing its results.
So with all the above indicators ..we have re issued the winter outlook and we will continue to expect neutral ENSO conditions along with seasonal to above normal temperatures over vast majority of the country and below normal snowfall. With a - PNA we expect things could be below normal in the Pacific Northwest.
This does not mean the east will not see any colder weather we just anticipate the shots to be more transient in nature. Of course a SSW could change this and the revised outlook then could go south as well but this seems to be the safest course at this point to take.
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