The Outbreak Continues with Day 3 Monday

The outbreak of severe weather will continue today with Day 3 as the cold front and the trough continues to make its way slowly to the east.

This will be at 12 Z this morning and you can see where the cold front will be located with an area of low pressure over TX and this front turns to the north to a low pressure up near the Dakotas borderline. Essentially the scenario we are going to be looking at today will be the same as the last two days.. All modes of severe weather are anticipated from Large Hail to Damaging Winds and Tornado's. 
Once again we will be dealing with warm to hot air out ahead of the system with temperatures in the 80s.

Dew points will once again be in the 60s and 70s 

Convective Available Potential Energy is also once again fairly high with the range of 3000-4000.

Once again there is plenty of Lift in the atmosphere with values as low as -10-11 ..

Once again our main concern is the EHI or the Energy Helicity Index that shows up across parts of the region. Whenever you have EHI at or above 1 you run the risk of Tornadic Activity ..

So it looks like Eastern OK once again could be up for some tornados along with NW ARK and into Missouri and possibly Illinois and Indiana. 

Shear is also once again sufficient with 40 knots or greater across the region.. So with all the above ingredients in place we have again a third day with this outbreak and this is the region we have highlighted on the map below with mention of where the Tornado's could occur up above..

Each day this will slowly make its way towards the East but it should weaken as compared to what the Midwest has been going thru but we are still anticipating widespread severe with it as it makes its way east southeast .
When it comes to TX we have included them but for the most part we think that the action should continue to stay to the North of TX..One exception could be around the Falls area.

Day # 2 Of Severe Weather With Latest Outbreak!

The same complex frontal system that brought the severe weather to areas of the midwest yesterday and its associated trough will be responsible for another day of severe weather . Matter of fact this system will be responsible for at least two more days of severe in addition to today Sunday the 19th. 
Once again we have several factors that will be in play and come together to help create this severe weather day. We have a warm unstable air mass out ahead of the cold front and trough..

Temperatures are in the 80s and the 90s across the region of concern. Dew points will also be high with them in the 60s and 70s..

The next ingredient which is like striking a match to a stick of dynamite is the CAPE or the Convective Available Potential Energy..

Levels once again are as high as 3000-4000 ..Adding fuel to the fire is the fact that the shear is actually going to be greater today then yesterday ..

With shear ranging from 40 to as much as 80 knots. Plenty of lift will also be available in the atmosphere..

And once again , perhaps more concerning is that the Energy Helicity Index is on the high side , well above 1 across a good portion of the area..

This in combination with all the other ingredients in place suggest that Tornados could be possible across Eastern OK , Eastern Kansas, virtually all of Missouri and Central Iowa. If we were to place a moderate risk this is the area where we were to place it. 
We are expecting all modes of severe weather today from Damaging winds to Large Hail to Tornado's mentioned in the places above.
From all the guidance we have looked at it appears as though TX will once again be under a CAP but we have included them just in case the CAP were to break with the high instability in place. 
With all the severe parameters out of the way this is the outlooked area we have highlighted for today Sunday the 19th..

This area will be moving East , East Northeast over the next two days.... 

Once again if you are in the path of any tornado take shelter immediately and please do not try and chase the storm unless you are an experienced storm chaser. This is how lives are lost in severe weather events & heed all warnings! 

ABOVE ALL BE SAFE!

May 18th Severe Weather Ramping Up

We use rather strong language in the title of this post but we feel by the end of the post you will understand the reasons why. 

1. First we have a warm to hot air mass out ahead of a cold front that is pressing off towards the east. This is one ingredient needed for severe weather to occur.

Temperatures are in the 80s and 90s. 

Secondly we have a trigger which is a cold front with two areas of low pressure. One over western Kansas and one over the border of the Dakotas with a trough pressing to the east and a dry line setting up from the low over Western Ks southward thru Eastern Tx..

Using the NAM we have quite the parameter field set up over quite a broad area...

CAPE which is convective available potential energy is quite high with values ranging at 4000-5000. In addition to this we have a lot of lift in the atmosphere...

We have lift indexes as low as negative 13 which helps to support an unstable atmosphere.

Perhaps more importantly is the EHI or the Energy Helicity Index that the NAM is showing..

If this EHI becomes a realized factor it means we could see tornados in Oklahoma, Nebraska, Kansas, Eastern South Dakota. 
Shear is greatest in the areas to the north with around 40 knots plus..

Perhaps the one positive to take away from the whole over all severe scenario is that the Helicity is not all that high across the region..

Never the less with it being 200+ in combination with the EHI we think this just enhances the potential for tornados across the areas that were mentioned.
The Helicity also does increase as the night goes along...

We think the state of TX will most likely be influenced by a strong CAP in place but with the CAPE as high as it is ..we have to include them in the outlook if that CAP were to break.

All aspects of severe weather can be expected today from Large Hail to strong gusty winds to the chance for tornado's mentioned in the areas that we covered above.

If you are out and about stay tuned to your National Weather Service and heed any warnings that may be issued and take cover and shelter immediately should you be in a tornado warning . 

So with all the above mentioned this is the outlook. We did not put a moderate risk area but pretty much you can figure from above where we would put it if we were to..

May 9th Severe Potential

Looking at the surface map we see the front is relatively stationary that has provided the severe weather yesterday on the 8th. By thursday evening this front should be splitting OK in half and trailing to the SW from there..

It will be this front that will once again be the cause of severe weather and rainfall once again. Looking at the severe parameters..
CAPE 

CAPE is quite high with anywhere from 1000 all the way up to about 3500.

Temperatures will be relatively in the 70s and 80s across the highlighted severe zone...

Dew points will generally be in the 50s and 60s indicating that there will be enough moisture in the atmosphere..

Wind shear will be sufficient but marginal with 30-40 knots generally being the case across the severe zone.

Where we become a little concerned is with the EHI which is relatively high in SE and Eastern OK and parts of Northern Tx. 

And the Storm Relative Helicity is also greatest over the same general area of eastern OK and SE Oklahoma. If there is going to be a tornado chance today this is where we would put it with a 5% risk. 

Plenty of lift in the atmosphere with anywhere from negative 4 to negative 8.

We expect storms to relatively blossom between 1 PM and 4 PM across the area in Texas. The main threats would be winds and large Hail but with the EHI on the high side extending into Northern TX we place a 2% Tor risk south of OK. Even after the storms rains may continue into the overnight across TX.. 

May 7th Severe Weather Potential

With the cut off low pressure moving up along the east coast and opening up that allows the pattern to start moving again and introduces a chance of severe weather again across parts of the southern plains.

We have a cold front that will be pressing off to the east from the west and an area of low pressure and from that low pressure extends a stationary front off towards the east. It will be this low pressure area and this cold front that will bring the chance of severe weather along with rain and Garden Variety type storms across the region.

We have decided to not include Texas in this outlook because the latest NAM keeps that region void of any precipitation.

One thing for certain is that the region is going to be quite warm to hot with temperatures from the 70s to the 90s .

CAPE will be on the order of 1000 + according to the latest NAM 

Lift Index will be in the negative 4 to negative 8 range depending on where you are..

Dewpoints will be in the 60s so we will have a return of moisture in the atmosphere..

Shear is marginal at best with 30-40 knots and some locations even less then that..

EHI suggests we could have supercells in Oklahoma and into Kansas..

Greatest Helicity is not aligned with the Greatest EHI so the tornado chance would be at 2% or less into Oklahoma and Kansas.

 The main severe threats today will be winds and hail with any storms that do pop up.

May 1st Severe Weather Potential

A area of low pressure will be developing across Southwest TX at the same time a cold front which will become quasi stationary will be draped from SW TX off towards the NE across the Midwest and will be the focal point for showers and thunderstorms as a trough advances towards the east.

Meanwhile the dry line will be also located over SW TX and will be the focal point for severe storms of which there is the potential for a Tornado to occur..

Lets look at the severe parameters that will be in place ...

CAPE will range from 1000 to as much as 3000 depending on where you are located ..

Plenty of Lift in the atmosphere with the lift index as low as negative 10

Shear will be sufficient at 40 knots or greater..