Lets talk severe weather probabilities! A look ahead!

Guidance is pretty much in agreement on an upper level ridge building into the area. This will start to actually head towards the region today but we will not feel its full effects until friday-Sunday. At this point and time temperatures are going to be in the 70s and maybe even make a push into the 80s. One caveat to this maybe a southeasterly flow around the Long Island area which could help to stunt the warm up in that part of the region.

A weak cold front should cross the area on or around monday of next week but at this point and time it looks like it will be a dry frontal passage for the most part with just a slight knockback on the temperatures. However..its after this in the wednesday to friday time frame that I am referencing. There are some timing issues with the models with the GFS being slightly more progressive and the ECM delaying by about 24-48 hrs on what appears to be a much stronger cold frontal passage.

Out ahead of this front the ECM warms things up again after the slight knockback on Monday.. You can see that in these images..

You can see the upper level ridge built in across the region that would be resulting once again in some warmer temperatures probably in the 70’s and maybe some 80s as well.

You can also see the cool down with the low pressure that appears to go into the lakes and then Canada and the passage of the cold front

As mentioned the GFS shows the same type of scenario but it would be a earlier time frame then what the ECM is showing.

Here at Real Wx Services we like to try and stay one step ahead at all points and times.

This is not a forecast saying to get ready for severe weather but if the model guidance is correct it could be an opportunity for the potential of severe weather to occur.

Real Wx Services will continue to monitor the situation and will let you know if indeed you can expect severe weather to happen in your region!

March 31 st Weather Discussion

Well the flooding that Real Wx Services was alluding to had returned as well as the heavy rains into eastern PA yesterday! In addition , the storm was able to essentially create its own cold air and the highest elevations in PA received some early spring season snowfall which was not expected by any weather service including this one. Most areas received 4.5 inches or under but one locale that i came across received 7.5 inches.

So today is basically going to be a continuation along the eastern part of the state of PA and into NJ. At least during the early morning hours. Some more light rain will fall adding to those rainfall totals. By afternoon things should start to clear out and also warm up and this will be the start of a beautiful spring warm up! So those places that received snowfall after the rain ..it will be melting rather quickly.

Rains will continue up in Northern New England where historic flooding has been taking place. Again, this flooding we warned about with the excessive rainfall totals.

Temperatures today will be in the 40s in Maine and then the 50s thru out the rest of the Northeast and from PA south upper 50s to upper 60s and as i said this is just the start of some warm spring air returning..Matter of fact we are going to be going well above normal for the weekend!

High temperature on the 30th at KABE was 47 degrees!

March 30th Daily Weather Discussion

The high temperature march 29th at KABE was 57 degrees.

Thankfully it appears as if the heaviest rain has and is going to continue to stay to the east and north of the region. Never the less heavy rains have been occurring just not over the inland areas like originally thought. About .76 had fallen @ KABE and its possible that today yet about another inch of rain or so could fall across the local region.  Further north and east is where the most rainfall is expected and that would be from LI north and east.

Level 3 alert has been dropped for PA and NJ and points south but continues for LI and points NE where some places are expected to receive historical flooding with more heavy rains today.

Temperatures from North to South are basically going to range from 40-50 degrees.

While the heavy rains were not realized here in PA into Northern New Jersey ..Real Wx Services feels that issuing a level 3 alert was not the wrong thing to do. In cases where cut off lows are involved to pinpoint the exact cut off of the low pressure becomes a very difficult process. At the time guidance was suggesting that it would be needed and verify but in the end the guidance was too far west.

However…regardless of the southern end not working out as expected Real Wx Services still introduced the flooding aspect of this storm for across Southern New England well in advance of the National Weather Service offices!

So What’s Next?

The next question that arises is what is next on the weather horizon? It appears that after this area of low pressure moves out of the way we are going to go thru the remainder of the week with sunny and warm weather building in. This warm weather will come as a result of a ridge of high pressure moving into the region.

Temperatures look to warm into the 60s and then by the weekend they look to warm into the 70s with 60s into Maine. However..guidance is beginning to indicate a cold front moving thru between sunday and monday.

Until that point and time after the rain moves out we will have sunny skies and warm spring like weather.

March 29th Rainfall Potential Update

Front appears to be stationary just inland along the coast. This should act as a storm track for this coastal low to follow. All models that i have looked at from 12 Z today , whether it be the NAM/GFS/ECM essentially move this low up along the coast and then have it retrograde towards the coast...
What this essentially means is that the moisture during the day today should continue to ride up along the coast in the locations that have been receiving it. Later tonight and overnight as the low pressure begins to retrograde the precipitation shield should begin to pivot to the WNW and rain should start to fall once again in places like KPHL into east central PA ...
Amounts look to be in the 1-2 inch range once the rain starts back up in the KPHL area and 3 inches + still looks possible in NNJ and NYC and LI.

March 29th Daily Weather Discussion

March 28th high temperature at KABE was 50 degrees which actually came later in the evening before midnight..

Today is going to be a rainy day across vast majority of the region. Most of the rain should have already moved thru the western part of the state all though some lighter showers are possible.

Its along the eastern Seaboard that is going to be under the gun for heavy rains to slightly inland with the cut off in PA probably being about south central and east central PA and then the rain will continue into the northeast. In the early part of the day (the overnight hours) snow will be occurring in the NW portion of the state of Maine but even there it will turn to all rain as the warmer air comes up the coast.

So basically if you are on the east coast along the coast and slightly inland plan  for heavy rains and probably increasing winds later on towards evening into the overnight.

Temperatures are going to be in the lower 40s to lower 50s in the state of Maine. Lower 40s to lower 50s in Northern NY and Western NY and in the 50s to low 60s pretty much elsewheres.

Once again if you are living in a flood proned area then be extremely careful when travelling outside today with the heavy rain that will be occurring!

March 28-30th Level 3 Alert For Flooding!

 

March 28 th 2010

Time: 2:50  AM EST

Time frame effected: March 28th 9 PM thru March 30th 12 Noon

Areas effected: Southern New England, Central New England into Northern Parts of New England and southern Maine,  NYC, All of NJ, All of Long Island, East Central PA , Southeast PA, central PA, NE PA, All of NJ, Delaware & Eastern Md , All of  VA , except extreme Western VA

Low pressure developing over the southern Plains will become a closed low once it is along the eastern sea board, This low pressure area will move East Northeast and be near SW Ohio by 00z Monday.

This area of low pressure will have a large influx of moisture from off the Atlantic and be  a very moisture laden system as well as a slow moving system. The abundant moisture and the slow movement of this system will enhance the flood threat across the above mentioned regions. Many of these regions are still experiencing higher then normal rivers from the previous rain events that have occurred.
Rainfall Totals will be a widespread area of 3-5 inches with locally higher amounts with any convective rains and thunderstorms.
Severe weather will basically be confined to the southeast part of the country ..However there is the potential for some general thunder and lightning.
Next issue is the winds... with a deepening area of low pressure and a 1030 high to the north this is going to set up a pretty tight gradient ..so at this point and time thinking winds could before this storm is over be gusting anywhere from 40-45 MPH with potentially higher gusts. Beach erosion is also going to be an issue along with rough surf and high tides.

Once again if you live in a flood prone area..Real Wx Services urges you to take whatever necessary cautions you will need to take in order to keep you and your house safe from any rising flood waters.