July 9th Severe Weather Outlook

The above map is based on the latest SREF and a blend of the GFS.

Stationary front to the south of Pa with a low pressure off the coast of Long Island. Another low pressure over eastern TN and another low pressure over the Ok/Tx panhandle region.

This stationary front will be the focus of severe weather in the Southeast and into the Tx area it is possible that there may be some Garden variety type storms but if there is any severe in that area it will be isolated.

Further to the north into the plains region this will be caused by another area of low pressure with a complex frontal system.An occluded front with a warm front extending eastwards and a cold front extending southwest from a low pressure in Canada. That low in canada will move slowly east pushing and lifting the warm front north and the cold front will start to move east south east and this will be the trigger for storms in that region.

The main threats from these storms should be hail and wind.

Invest 96 L Thoughts

The national hurricane center has this invest at a 40 % chance of development. The models themselves are not enthusiastic about this area developing.

The satellite up above shows very little organization. Besides being elongated the system is currently in 30-40 knots of shear. The best convergence is off to the East Northeast and there is also dry air around the invest.

The conditions surrounding this invest are not favorable for developing. The anti cyclone is off to the west of the system & this system is moving in the opposite direction of that anti cyclone.

We feel at best this area of interest will cause showers and thunderstorms along the gulf coast into Florida and put the chances of this developing at 10%.

We will continue to monitor this system and if anything changes we will update this.

July 8th 2011 Severe Weather Potential

The above map is based on the latest GFS/NAM/SREF.

The cold front we talked about yesterday is in the process of moving thru the region currently. It should pass thru completely this evening but it will then stall just to the south of Pa. Low pressure will be along the front over Northern VA and this front stretches back to the west to another low over western KY and then west from there to another low over the OK/TX panhandle.

Low pressure over the OK TX panhandle will generally move to the east –north east and be located over southern ohio by 2 PM and then over Northern VA by 8 PM . This is going to bring some unsettled weather into the region from the Carolina’s into the Northeast with showers and garden variety thunderstorms of which from PA north into the NE could end up with some isolated severe.

Further to the NW over the upper plains ..another low pressure will be moving across Canada and with it is a complex frontal system. As that system slides east it will pull the frontal system thru that part of the region and cause the potential for showers and severe thunderstorms.

The main threats in any of the above regions look to be hail and wind. An isolated tornado can not be ruled out in the upper plains region.

Over the Carolinas region we are mainly looking at storms being caused by the stationary front, daytime heating and wind shear of between 30-40 knots. Main threats here will also be winds/hail.

July 7th Severe Weather Thoughts

The above is the current surface analysis as of 2 PM on the 6th. As you can see there is a cold front that is working into the region. There is some showers and thunderstorms some of which are severe out ahead of this front.

This front will continue to move off to the south and the east and will actually stall across central NJ and become stationary.  This front will be a focal point for some showers and garden variety type thunderstorms with some isolated severe. Extending from the east coast all the way back to the central plains into the midwest.

Low pressure should develop along this stalled front and bring some showers and thunderstorms then overnight tomorrow night into East Central Pa and Southeast PA.

Meanwhile in the pacific NW a deep trough will be moving thru that part of the country with a cold front which could serve as a trigger for severe storms in the Pacific NW region. This is relatively a weak cold front so any storms in this region will be diurnally driven.

While one can never rule out an isolated tornado we see the greatest threats from any storms as hail and or wind.

July 6th Severe Weather Thoughts

We are not going to issue a map today for tomorrows severe weather probabilities.

Essentially a cold front is going to be dropping southeast thru the great lakes region and there will be several weak impulses as well that should allow scattered severe thunderstorms to take place. These are mainly going to be diurnally driven storms across the eastern states into the Northeast.

This same cold front will also serve as the trigger for storms from the plains states into the southeast.

We feel that any storms that become severe will be capable of producing strong gusty winds and hail.

The cold front itself looks to cross the eastern PA region in the overnight period wednesday night into the early morning thursday.

Overall the severe probabilities are going to be more like pop corn (scattered) thunderstorms and nothing really concentrated.

In other words your typical summer pattern with storms caused by daytime heating!

Fireworks & Mother Nature Fireworks for the 5th of July

This is going to be relatively brief considering it is the 4th of July and festivities are going on. The above is based off of the GFS/SREF blend.

CAPE is 1000-4000 depending on where you live in the outlined area above

Lift Index is 0 to –8 depending on where you reside..

Ridging will continue to persist into the Plains region and the central part of the US while the NE into the Great lakes continues to be in a trough.

Meanwhile there is a stationary front stretched from west to east across the southeast and area of low pressure over E Virginia and this stationary front stretches west to multiple shortwave energies over the rockies.

By about 8 AM a low pressure area will be moving across the southern Tier of Canada and this will begin to drag a cold front across the plains and great lakes region.

These storms are going to be mainly driven by the daytime heating and the fronts mentioned above will be the focal point. Not everyone in the zone will see severe weather but the potential is there for garden variety type thunderstorms as well of which any storm could become severe given the parameters in place. The main threats will be large hail and wind and we are not really anticipating any tornadic activity!

Stay tuned for further info should it become necessary & enjoy your holiday this 4th of July! God Bless!

July 4th Severe Weather Potential

First off let us start off by wishing each and every one of our viewers and followers a Happy 4th of July!

Severe Weather Outlook for the 4th of July. The above outlook is based off the latest SREF/NAM/GFS.

Lets look at the severe parameters:

SWEAT is 400 or above mainly from the southern part of North Dakota thru all of south dakota..into North Central Nebraska

CAPE is anywhere from 500-4000 depending on where you are located

Lift Index is 0 to – 8 depending on where you are located

Energy Helicity Index or EHI is above 1 only in NE North Dakota.

Weather Synopsis

Dakota region: A cold front will be moving across this region and will be the focal point for convection tomorrow afternoon into the evening.

Meanwhile there will be a stationary front across the south central part of the USA that will serve as a focal point for severe storms.

We think that the primary severe threats will be hail and winds in excess of 60 MPH. We can not rule out the isolated tornado threat in the region with the EHI and SWEAT!

Stay tuned for more information if it becomes necessary!