June 22nd Severe Weather Outlook..

June 22nd Severe Weather Outlook..
Right off the back we are going to start this off by saying we are not overly impressed with severe weather chances today. There are a couple reasons one of which we alluded to earlier this evening.
1. Severe weather reports today (21st) were rather few and far between or for a better word they were lacking.
2. Would be the timing of the front... By 2 Am the front is already going to be making its way across Western PA...
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/91fwbgus.gif
This should mean that the front would cross or approach the eastern side between 12 Z (8am) and 18 Z (2 PM) .. With this being the case this would not allow much time for daytime heating to be added to the scenario and we can see this when looking at the NAM and it showing the temperatures at 18 Z (2 PM) cooler then they were the 21st..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/22/00/NAM_221_2012062200_F18_TMPF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
Despite this being the case it is still going to be a warm, sticky, hot day with dew points in the 60-70 degree range...
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/22/00/NAM_221_2012062200_F18_DPTF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
We have decent Convective Potential Energy across the region (CAPE) with 500-3000
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/22/00/NAM_221_2012062200_F21_CAPE_SURFACE.png
LIFT INDEX ranges from about 0 to negative 6
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/22/00/NAM_221_2012062200_F21_PLI_30_0_MB_ABOVE_GROUND.png
A better Parameter then yesterday will be the SHEAR in that it is marginal to decent with at least 35 knots
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/22/00/NAM_221_2012062200_F24_SHRM_500_MB.png
HELICITY is pretty much lacking across the area...
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/22/00/NAM_221_2012062200_F24_HLCY_3000_M_ABOVE_GROUND_0_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
The ENERGY HELICITY INDEX is pretty much in the same category-lacking with just a small pocket across East Central PA into or just west of NYC
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/22/00/NAM_221_2012062200_F24_EHI_3000_M.png
We think any threats from severe weather will come in the form of Winds in excess of 65 MPH as height falls begin to overspread the region. With PWAT values high another potential to keep an eye out for would be heavy monsoonal type rainfall where ever storms can manage to fire up!
The one good thing about this cold front is it will indeed be breaking the heat.

Current 5 day forecast for the Allentown, Bethlehem , Easton area

Current 5 day forecast for the Allentown, Bethlehem , Easton area . Once again please keep water handy if you are going to be outside!

June 21st Severe Weather Outlook

June 21st Severe Weather Outlook
We talked about how the heat would be increasing across the east and it did just that yesterday.. Here in Allentown PA it was 95 degrees. Today is going to be another Hot day across the east again with temperatures in the 90-100 degree range..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/21/00/NAM_221_2012062100_F18_TMPF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
In addition to this we are talking about dew points in the 60-70 degree range so your real feel temperatures or heat index is going to be between 100-110
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/21/00/NAM_221_2012062100_F18_DPTF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
CAPE across the region is 500 to about 3000 depending on where you reside..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/21/00/NAM_221_2012062100_F24_CAPE_SURFACE.png
LIFT INDEX is 0 to about negative 5 across the region
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/21/00/NAM_221_2012062100_F24_PLI_30_0_MB_ABOVE_GROUND.png
The one ingredient that is lacking however on the NAM is SHEAR which shows only about 25-30 knots..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/21/00/NAM_221_2012062100_F24_SHRM_500_MB.png
HELICITY is not a factor either for anything tornado related..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/21/00/NAM_221_2012062100_F24_HLCY_3000_M_ABOVE_GROUND_0_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
ENERGY HELICITY INDEX is also not really a factor...
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/21/00/NAM_221_2012062100_F24_EHI_3000_M.png
At the surface we are dealing with a cold front that will be slowly moving towards the east..
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/91fwbgus.gif
Across Maine a warm front may essentially serve as the trigger in that region. Over all we are not expecting a big severe day but more or less "pop up isolated thunderstorms of which some could be severe with winds

Current 5 day forecast for the Allentown, Bethlehem , Easton area!

Current 5 day forecast for the Allentown, Bethlehem , Easton area! Over the next two days we can not stress enough how important it is to stay hydrated! Be safe!

June 20th 2012 Severe Weather Outlook

June 20th 2012 Severe Weather Outlook
Well the west is going to be turning cooler while further to the east things begin to go under the boiler as far as temperatures are concerned. Quite a contrast in temperatures with the west in the 60s-70s.. and in the 90 to 100 degree range in the east.
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/20/00/NAM_221_2012062000_F24_TMPF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
In addition to the warm to hot temperatures .. the air is going to be sticky and humid with dew points in the 60-70 degree range...
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/20/00/NAM_221_2012062000_F24_DPTF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
CAPE is going to be between 500 and about 2500. The greatest CAPE ironically enough is going to be across the Northeast however..in the NE we are lacking any moisture so we are not including the NE in any type of severe zone. It is completely possible with the day time heat that there could be an "isolated" storm but with no real evidence of moisture in place ..the parameters like CAPE will not really matter!
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/20/00/NAM_221_2012062000_F24_CAPE_SURFACE.png
LIFT Index is going to be 0 to negative 8 across the severe zone..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/20/00/NAM_221_2012062000_F24_PLI_30_0_MB_ABOVE_GROUND.png
SHEAR
Wind shear across the severe zone is going to be in the 40-60 knot range category.
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/20/00/NAM_221_2012062000_F24_SHRM_500_MB.png
HELICITY is up to about 500-550
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/20/00/NAM_221_2012062000_F24_HLCY_3000_M_ABOVE_GROUND_0_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
ENERGY HELICITY INDEX
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/20/00/NAM_221_2012062000_F24_EHI_3000_M.png
Essentially it looks like a squall line in place with the EHI above 1 .
Looking at the surface ..
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif
Current surface map shows a low pressure over the south Dakota region with a warm front extending to the Northeast from the low and a cold front extending southwest from the low pressure.
The low over South Dakota is going to make its way to the east northeast and into southern Canada to the north/northwest of Lake Superior and this is going to allow the cold front to slowly move east as the low lifts northeast. It is this cold front that will be responsible for the severe weather. Since we will be looking at essentially storms in a squall line and with the EHI and Helicity along that squall line we are going to go with a general 2 % Tornado zone anywhere along that squall line..

The 5 Day Forecast For Allentown Bethlehem Easton region!

June 19th Severe Weather Outlook

June 19th Severe Weather Outlook
Well, if it seems like we are repeating a broken record..essentially we are repeating a broken record when it comes to the central part of the US with temperatures once again going to be on the warm to hot side with 70s to 90s across the region..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/19/00/NAM_221_2012061900_F18_TMPF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
Dew Points will once again be in the 60-70 range so again we are not only talking about warm temperatures but we are also talking about it being muggy or humid as well..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/19/00/NAM_221_2012061900_F24_DPTF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
CAPE or Instability we are looking at between 500-3500 depending on where you are located..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/19/00/NAM_221_2012061900_F18_CAPE_SURFACE.png
LIFT Index is about 0 to negative 10 again depending on where you are located..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/19/00/NAM_221_2012061900_F18_PLI_30_0_MB_ABOVE_GROUND.png
Impressive SHEAR at 60-80 knots across the north but very meager in the NE region with only around 25-40 knots
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/19/00/NAM_221_2012061900_F18_SHRM_500_MB.png
HELICITY if the NAM is to be believed is as high as 800
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/19/00/NAM_221_2012061900_F18_HLCY_3000_M_ABOVE_GROUND_0_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/19/00/NAM_221_2012061900_F21_HLCY_3000_M_ABOVE_GROUND_0_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/19/00/NAM_221_2012061900_F24_HLCY_3000_M_ABOVE_GROUND_0_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
ENERGY HELICITY as high as 6 again if the NAM is to be believed..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/19/00/NAM_221_2012061900_F18_EHI_3000_M.png
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/19/00/NAM_221_2012061900_F21_EHI_3000_M.png
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/19/00/NAM_221_2012061900_F24_EHI_3000_M.png
Now lets look at the surface...
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/91fwbgus.gif
Warm front has already moved thru most of upper Michigan ..and a cold front is currently into eastern Upper Michigan...which then runs to a low pressure over the Nebraska/Dakota border area. This cold front is going to move its way towards the east southeast...so it will be across Eastern Upper MI by 8 AM in the morning...
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/92fwbgus.gif
Low pressure at that point will be over south central Dakotas... This front is going to essentially stall across the area and the western part of the front will lift north again as a warm front..
The problem is while we have some off the wall parameters on the NAM when we look at the surface maps we seem to notice something..
For example here is 18 Z or 2 PM Tuesday Afternoon
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/00znam850mbTSLPp06018.gif
And here is 00z wed which is 8 PM Tuesday evening...
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/00znam850mbTSLPp06024.gif
Now what you see here is if you are located in Upper MI for example..You have some off the wall parameters but you are lacking any moisture..
And you can see the GFS is not all that much different from the NAM
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs850mbTSLPp06018.gif
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs850mbTSLPp06024.gif
So we are going to with the parameters in place go with a 5% tornado zone mainly into the Wisconsin area back into the Dakotas region... and perhaps a 2 % zone back into Northern /NE Nebraska..
If you are outside the fore mentioned areas then your severe threats would be winds and or hail. The greatest Severe threat would be to the N/NW of the low pressure area in the warm sector...
We will be monitoring the condition all day long across the severe zone starting around noon EST..