Isaac Disrupted By Haiti-Models Shift West

At the present point and time we are not going to change our track. The track that we laid out about 24 hours ago shows basically landfall around the MS/AL border however the cone of uncertainty stretched east to the Western panhandle of Florida and West to New Orleans.. This seems to be the case as of tonights model guidance with one noticeable exception -the model guidance that is going into the Western Florida Panhandle is shrinking...

Matter of fact there has been a lot of talk about the current movement of the system. NHC has the most recent direction as NW and this is what the 6 Z guidance (early ) shows as well and with that being the case lets just see where this would end up IF it were to continue to move on its projected heading. Follow the orange line labled Xtrap

Now as you can see by the orange line on the current heading it would be going right across New Orleans region. Now this is remotely interesting because MAJORITY of the guidance has shifted to the West tonight and puts New Orleans into the target zone .. So lets look at the guidance from 00z and the early 6 Z guidance..

First the GFS ..

So much for the eastern track on the east side of florida or for that matter the central track up the middle of the state of Florida. Although in reality aside from one or two runs of the GFS this option was never on the table and if you followed us here you were well aware of the reason why which was the strong ridging to the north and the steering currents in place.
GFS ensembles have also trended west and also take aim at the New Orleans area..

So you can pretty much see that the means back up the operational model. Next up is the 00z GGEM. Now with this image you simply have to look for the red line which represents the 00z run ..

As you can see the GGEM is also taking this on a pathway towards the New Orleans region. So this is now two models from the 00z run that favor a significantly further west track..

Next model above is the 00z Nogaps and if you read the facebook page earlier in the day when we posted the 12 Z we said that this was west of the ECM for example and that usually that indicates a red flag..meaning the ECM was to far east and should come back. It is important to remember when it comes to the ECM ..it is the better verifying model but its best statistics are not until hrs 48 as when it becomes deadly and can not be beat..

So with that said lets look at the ECM which this is approximately 72 hours away yet from impacting the USA.

Should not really be a surprise that the ECM has come back west from its 12 Z run with just about every other piece of guidance we looked at doing the same thing. This is not as far west as the GFS/NOGAPS/GGEM  and as you will see the HWRF but it is a trend in those model camp directions..

No explanation is needed for the above images this would be a very powerful and significant Hurricane targeting guess where? If you said New Orleans you would be correct...

The only other model that did not come West and is still in the Florida Panhandle is the UKMET..

Now lets move on to the 6 Z early guidance model runs. These would be the dynamical models..

As you can see the majority of these are west and they are towards New Orleans. Some are further east across the Panhandle area and some around the MS/AL border. Only one curves to the NE . 

So as you can see there is an ABUNDANCE of EVIDENCE from the guidance that this SHOULD be shifting further west.. And one of the reasons is that right now the system is very disorganized and got disrupted from Haiti and it has to essentially reorganize its inner core and become vertically stacked again. This makes it more subjected to the steering currents once again which show a west to Northwest trajectory .

We continue to think that Isaac is going to have some trouble re organizing its structure over the next 12 -24 hrs . Part and partial due to an Upper Level Low that is sitting at 22 N and 78 W and you can see this on the water vapor..

It is this same upper level low that the models start to move out of the area which SHOULD enhance the outflow and then that occurring and in combination with the shear dropping (though there is still some increasing shear around it) the shear that is dropping is in the GOM region...and the warmer waters should allow this to start increasing in strength once the center is west of Southern Florida..

The above image on top shows the current shear and the below shows where it is dropping and where it is rising and you can see to its N and to its W as well as its east there is increasing shear but once you go beyond that and you get into the GOM it is decreasing.

Convergence and Divergence is actually decent across the system which will be another factor in aiding Isaac to re strengthen but not in our opinion for another 12-24 hrs . 

We still feel quite comfortable with a landfall around the Ms/AL border and we also feel fairly confident that once this gets over the GOM waters that significant increase in strength is likely and that a CAT 3 is not out of the question. 
However if the guidance continues to shift west the track will have to shift west and that would then but the landfall very close to New Orleans!

No matter where this makes landfall its going to be a powerful storm with Heavy rains , High Surf, Flooding, Beach Erosion and extremely gusty winds . 

Just as a side note NHC as of 5 AM has shifted their track west with now New Orleans in the cone and landfall around the MS/AL border... This is very similar to what we posted last night..

We want to make it clear that synoptics said from the get go that this was never going to be an up the east coast threat or a eastern Florida hit. We been on top of this since day one of tracking it and as always we will continue to provide you with the most accurate forecasting possible. We will update this in 24 hrs once again.

Isaac To Weaken Before Gaining Hurricane Strength

We are starting this off with our final track and really this track has not changed to much from what we issued and created back on the 21st of the month. The main difference is that in the short term we have pushed the track further to the north..however in the latter part we have leaned more towards the left with a Alabama/Florida Panhandle land fall. Cone of uncertainty takes it into the Western Panhandle and as far west as the SE LA region.

Isaac is generally moving towards the Northwest and this is due to a weakness that is in the ridge..However the ridge is still pretty healthy ...and what this should do is cause the system to move a little slower then what guidance was originally suggesting...
Latest Pressure was 990 MBs with winds at 70 MPH..However now we are beginning to have some land interaction.. The steering currents are below:

Also lets throw in some latest water vapor images and visible images and you can see that pretty much the island of Haiti is having an effect on the system. Remember we stressed a weaker system would be disrupted less but a stronger system has potential to be disrupted more..

Lets look at the current conditions as of 6 Z and I think this may also explain the appearance we see on visible and water vapor with not much convection on the northern side..

Now what this clearly shows you is that the northern side of the system is under about 10-20 knots of wind shear and it increases as you go to the NW towards the Eastern Gulf of Mexico as the bottom image shows (the increasing tendency) but the top image shows that it is as high as 30-40 knots to the NW of the system.  So it may have some rough sailing as it moves NW.

Convergence and Divergence is actually very good across the region. The size of Isaac is quite large so this means it will have a large reach with tropical storm winds . The weakening we anticipate because of going across land .. 
Now lets go and look at some of the guidance...

We are going to start with the GFS which is showing landfall around the Western Panhandle of Florida.

Now going to the opposite extreme and well to the left is the GGEM..

Now going back to the right end of the spectrum is the UKMET and the NOGAPS

Now we have saved the two last models for last because they are higher resolution models which would be the NAM & The European Computer Model..
The NAM is actually from the beginning of the latest guidance which is the 6 Z and this shows only 84 hrs as far as the model goes but notice that this model is NOW leaning towards the left end of the spectrum..

Now finally is the ECM and this gets it down to about 969 MBS at landfall which is in the western Panhandle..

Now one more image to look at and that is the ECM ensembles from tonights run..

Notice how the storm is slightly further west then the actual operational run? 

So what we have decided to do is to take a blend of all the model guidance because the reality of the situation is that we still have two camps and we are only about 96 hrs away from this impacting the USA.
On one side you have the Nogaps, GFS, ECM 
On the other side you have the GGEM, NAM, & ECM ensembles ...

Quite honestly I am not sure if i like the ideal of the Nogaps , ECM being on the same thought pattern with Isaac because the NOGAPS is a notoriously bad model but one thing we discovered two years ago at least in winter is if it is at the same area with a low pressure system as the other guidance..usually it means that the guidance with it is not correct.. 
We do feel that once Isaac re emerges in the GOM that significant strengthening is likely ..HOWEVER this will all be dependent on the shear relaxing in that region.

Remember the worst side of a hurricane is on the east side of the center and because of the size even if this goes a good distance off the FL coast line there will be strong gusty winds to the east into Florida and very heavy rainfall. 
If you live in any part of the region that is highlighted in the cone of uncertainty I would begin to make preparations now to protect your belongings etc. 

We will be updating this in about 24 hours once again but the track at the top is the final track less guidance follows the NAM ..

Isaac The 3:45 AM Game Changer Confirmed!

A strange title for a blog post we do realize but by the time you finish reading this you will understand completely why we are naming the title the way we are.  So lets start this off with looking at the visible satellite loop for Isaac and I want the readers to click on the trop plot boxes and the lat/long box.. 

Isaac Visible Loop

Now with clicking on those boxes do you notice what we have been noticing and discussing on our facebook page all night?  This is travelling not only due west but also well south of the NHC 11 PM and 2 AM position ...but I can here some voices saying " But wait how do you know this or how did you know this?" 

First piece of evidence was the microwave image pass at 00z 

Notice the center around 15 N? This was the first piece that told us that the NHC was off. The second image that I am posting will now show the 11 PM NHC center with a little red square but look off to the SW of that square..

Now.. we are going to show the same two images side by side and you will notice how the white cloud tops which were -92 C are indeed in the same location as what the microwave image showed..

Now ..the game changer.. 
 RECON JUST CONFIRMED THAT THE CENTER IS 125-150 MILES SW of where NHC has it!! 

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 07:20Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2012
Storm Name: Isaac (flight i

n the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 10
Observation Number: 03
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 6:55:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°03'N 69°35'W (15.05N 69.5833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 238 miles (383 km) to the S (175°) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,420m (4,659ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 37kts (~ 42.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 6 nautical miles (7 statute miles) to the SSW (211°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 116° at 38kts (From the ESE at ~ 43.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 168 nautical miles (193 statute miles) to the N/NNE (11°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1000mb (29.53 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,513m (4,964ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 10 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 38kts (~ 43.7mph) in the north quadrant at 5:27:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 20°C (68°F) which was observed 71 nautical miles (82 statute miles) to the NNW (332°) from the flight level center

That's correct folks you are reading that correctly ..the center is 125 -150 miles further SW then what NHC had it . Now lets look at some water vapor images ...

As you can see this is quite now well south of the islands and has the potential to completely miss the islands of Hispanola and Cuba.. Now why is all this occurring? Again this can be answered by looking at some images from CIMSS... 

First we are looking at the steering currents..

As you can clearly see looking at the above image that the ridge stretches from the eastern Atlantic into the eastern part of the USA. This is clearly why Isaac has been moving essentially west and with a southward component. Tropical storms will always take the path of LEAST RESISTANCE!  

The next reason is the system is still rather weak and disorganized and is not  vertically stacked.. You can see this by looking at the following images..

These images were also the clue to the system being further south then what the National Hurricane Center had it.  In simple terms what happened is shear increased across the northern part of the system and the system relocated further to the SW..

And as you can see the shear is still increasing to the west northwest of the system and this is the reason that we have been saying this system will stay weak UNTIL it passes the islands...

Factor in that it is in that SW region that the best convergence and the divergence lies. And you have the reasons as to why Isaac has relocated further SW and why Isaac has been having trouble becoming vertically stacked and why Isaac has been remaining weak and disorganized. When a system is weak and disorganized it is subjected to the steering flow and this is why we have never bought into the East Coast Hurricane (up the coast) we have never bought into the east of Florida Hurricane and we have never bought into going up central part of Florida. It is all about synoptics, environment and climatology... It is not based on a single model run or an outlier model. 

So that brings us to the guidance... However..it has to be asked that since the center is further SW by a good 125-150 miles and the movement is more west ..whether any of the guidance tonight can be considered reliable...

However we will look at them..Only going to post the GGEM because the GGEM essentially lines up in the same location as the UKMET and the NOGAPS... Do not really like the UKMET siding with the GGEM and NOGAPS because these two are not very reliable with tropical cyclones..

GFS is below the GGEM and you can see that it has a very powerful system making landfall in the western Panhandle of Fl around the AL/FL border.. Again keep in mind that this was going off a further NE center location then what we actually have..

By the way in addition to what the GFS shows track wise it shows a category 3 at landfall which would be a major hurricane... 

Now the ECM actually did initialize the center more accurately with it around 15 N. Score one for the ECM and this is because (and many people forget) a high resolution model and this still gets fairly close to New Orleans ..

Now here is our concern.. with the center further southwest, and still relatively moving west (no real choice in that matter cause of the steering currents and the atmosphere) ..this could increase the potential of sliding south of Hispanola and Cuba. Which means less land interaction possible and less weakening from that less land interaction. It also means that this could shift the entire track towards the west ..perhaps around the Mississippi to LA border.. 

As you can see RECON has definitely located the center around 15 N. This could end up being a major game changer. We originally were going to issue a new map tonight however because of the game changer that we have been discussing all night .. we are going to hold off and wait for the next day of guidance and see what this new information does..  It really is going to be dependent on how long it continues to head on the west track before turning WNW but it has greatly increased the odds for a further west track...

Stay tuned as you can tell by our Facebook page (link in the beginning ) we have been ahead of even the National Hurricane center as well as majority of the weather outlets on Facebook! 

Our position and Standing On Isaac!

We want to start this off with recapping some things that we had said thru out the day yesterday. 
About 12 hrs ago we had posted the following on our Facebook page..

"About a half hour ago, Recon found 2 areas of low pressure, 1 at 16N and 1 at 15N, it looks like there might be a center relocation going on towards the southern vortex .. This would be indication of the strength of the ridge!" 

And you can see from NHC coordinates the following:

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N  61.2W AT 22/2100Z

Now in this next part you can see that this contains the 2 AM update the following but on top is the center fix after the 2 AM update :

A. Time of Center Fix: 23rd day of the month at 5:55:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14°43'N 63°30'W (14.7167N 63.5W)

To compare with:

2:00 AM AST Thu Aug 23
Location: 15.5°N 63.5°W
Moving: W at 20 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph

So you can see we have gone from 16.0 N to 15.5 N to now 14.43 north. This is important and this is and can have huge implications down the road... However..the point to take home is the analysis that we had seen via visible earlier yesterday was indeed correct.

Now lets look at what is happening with ISAAC and this will  help to explain exactly what is going on with ISAAC and why he is just a disorganized mess..

There is no doubt that ISAAC is very disorganized and this is because of relocating further to the south as we anticipated. However , there are other reasons involved as well.

Both these images are shear images. The first is current shear and you can see across the northern part of the system and off to the west that the shear is anywhere from 10 knots to as high as 50 knots to the NW. You can also notice by the yellow and orange colors on the second image , shear tendency that it is increasing to the north and also to the west. So this is obstacle # 1 to overcome..

These images are actually the convergence and divergence images and you can see that the best convergence and divergence lies across the southern part of the system. 

Another reason we are not yet dealing with a stronger system is that this is not yet stacked and vertically aligned. So significant strengthening is not likely until this were to happen and occur and that should be when it gets past Cuba and Hispanola. Again, if it were to travel across these islands because it is a weaker storm it would have less of an effect then if it were a stronger storm. So weaker is best at this point and time and it should remain that way thru at least the next 72-96 hrs.

Now lets look at the guidance and tonight we are going to look at all the guidance and to put this quite honestly .. all models have shifted west and we are coming into a consensus... Two models still remain outliers ..

A. The NAM but this is not a reliable model for tropics and not reliable until under 48 hrs.

B. The GGEM..the only model that takes this along the east side of FL but then moves NW into the central part of FL which is a large shift west compared to prior runs but as said we will look at them all..

First up on the guidance is the 00z ECM 

Western side of Florida and landfall in the Western Panhandle of Florida at 969 mbs. This would be indicative of a very strong to perhaps Major Hurricane making landfall!

Next part of the guidance we will be looking at is the GFS..

Western side of the Florida panhandle and this too would be a strong Hurricane to make landfall in the Panhandle region..

Next up is the UKMET 

This model as well has come west and takes a strong Hurricane into the Western Panhandle of Florida. Not unusual considering it is often referred to as the little brother to the ECM..

Next model is another one to come to the left and in line with the rest of the guidance above and that was the NOGAPS. Now keep in mind the nogaps is the MOST PROGRESSIVE BIASED model but we are only looking at track and that is it..

Not to many more models to go thru that are left. So far none support an up along the east coast storm threat. So the next one we will look at is the GFDL/ HWRF

Pretty amazing agreement so far would you say? There is only two models that are left and this is the GGEM and the NAM...

Well, the GGEM is one model that has brought this up on the east side but then takes it thru the central part of FL and then into GA. This is a major shift west for this model.  Of course the last model is the NAM..

So as you can see ALL the guidance with the exception of the GGEM / NAM are in agreement with a Western Panhandle FL hit with this going to and along the western side of Florida into the Eastern Go Mexico. These two models MUST be counted as outliers when stacked against the rest of the guidance.

Now ..what is happening is simple and easy to understand and it  is weather synoptics. There is strong ridging to the North of Isaac. With this strong ridging, some increasing shear , this makes the system susceptible to follow the steering currents. A weak, disorganized storm can NOT just slam into a ridge .. It must go around it and seek out a weakness. 

This subtropical ridge stretches from the east to the west and this will keep it on a heading of mainly due west with perhaps a little touch south yet of due west. Eventually it should feel the weakness with an incoming trough and take a turn towards the West Northwest and then NW.

We have no compelling reason to change our tracking from the top of this post which was created on the 21st of August. We also think that this will remain relatively weak until it gets past hispanola and Cuba and once in the GOM this should intensify and perhaps quite rapidly.

Anywhere from Mobile Al to the Florida Panhandle should stay abreast of the latest with Isaac and we will update this in another 24 hrs!