What is on the Horizon?

Now that the storm is winding down...What is on the horizon? With the AO rising and the NAO rising and the PNA still negative ..a warm up is on the horizon with temperatures being seasonal to above seasonal for the first week of December ..In about ten days troughing could return to the east coast....

Potential Snow November 27th 2012

Warm air advection snows will be moving across the region starting in the overnight hours... and thru the day on tuesday. This snowfall will probably have a difficult time sticking on anything other then cars and grassy areas because of the time it will be falling...

You can see the QPF that HPC thinks is possible over the next 1-2 days...

As far as guidance is concerned the NAM is the wettest ...

With the GFS mainly showing .25-.50 

As we discussed earlier in the day the best dynamics seem to be setting up across Southern PA into east PA and into NW NJ. I think we can see snow into NYC but we feel generally this would be a mixed event due to the lighter precipitation expected across that region. 

This will be more of a nuisance storm then a disrupting storm however for those of you who are snow lovers this is something that we were missing last year for the most part outside of Octobers big snowstorm.
It is possible that if the NAM's wetter solution ends up correct that the 2-4 zone could end up a 3-5 zone so we will just say there could be lollipops to the 3-5 range anywhere with in that zone...

First Snowstorm of the 2012 Winter Season..

All afternoon we have been analyzing the models and guidance as they have been coming in. Just less then 24 hours ago we had the models essentially all saying that this was going to stay far enough off the coast that it would not really effect anything other then the ocean. Alot of the people around the internet bought that scenario but we never bought into that scenario. There was only two models that we were watching for signs or hints that would tell us or help us to come out with a forecast . Those two models were the European Computer Model .. this is the only model last night that did actually not take the system out to sea. The other model we were watching was the NOGAPS. We watched the NOGAPS to see where it was positioned with the low and we mentioned on our Facebook page how the rest of the guidance was holding hands with the NOGAPS. This told us that the guidance was to far to the east which left the ECM being the only model that was west of the NOGAPS. So at that point and time we were banking on two things to happen.
1. The ECM to end up being the more accurate model since it was west of the nogaps ..
2. The rest of the guidance to start trending back towards the west 

This is exactly what started happening at 12 Z model runs today...then the trend continued with the 18 Z Model runs...

We are briefly going to look at the models that came out today..Starting with the 18 Z GFS...

You can see that the 18 Z GFS has definitely come west and in comparison to last night it has come quite the distant west and almost brings 1.00 liquid equivalent into the Allentown Bethlehem Easton region...

Again the above now is the 18 Z NAM which ..at 12 Z runs it had come west but the 18 Z is even more west then what the 12 Z was. Again bringing some decent QPF into east central PA into NJ and NYC...

Now in addition to this we have the 18 Z RGEM..

As you can see the NAM and the GFS are not the only models that have shifted west and bring more QPF into the region but we have the RGEM doing the same. All this guidance essentially agrees that the KPHL to Southern New Jersey and N DE are going to be the jackpot area.

Going back to the 12 Z model suite we will look at the ECM and the GGEM..

The above is just a one hour frame ..you can go thru the rest of the images at the following link (click here) ..This brings heavy snow into Eastern PA ..

The above is the 12 Z ECM images and as you can see this has indeed also come back more west compared to 00z last nights model runs. 

Some things to keep in mind ...
1. The air mass that is out ahead of this system is not a warm air mass. This means that the ground is not all that warm..So we think if the snow comes down heavy enough it will stick on the pavements and the streets that are not pre treated..

2. With guidance clearly suggesting more QPF then what the NWS is projecting we can not be in agreement with them.

3. This is going to be similar to last October where we are expecting a heavy wet snow that will paste to trees.

4. This means that we could have more trees down and power outages.. So something you may want to prepare for if worse comes to worse.

5. We will have winds that will be 15-30 mph and gusts inland as high as 45-55 and along the coast we could be gusting as high as 60 mph. This in combination with the snow could mean power outages across the same region as Sandy just got done tearing up...

7. Lollipops are going to depend on where the deformation band sets up. It is in this region that we could see locations from 6-8 inches. At this time we think it could be from extreme SE PA to Southern NJ and northern De.
However..if the storm shifts west more at 00z this could end up moving that axis of heaviest further to the west...

So with all the above said...blending the models and there QPF together we have come up with the following map:

On the southern part of the T-3 inch snowfall we think it could start off as rain and be a wintry mix.. Also along the eastern NJ coast line...

From Sandy To Potential Noreaster

Lets start this off by saying that our thoughts and prayers continue to go out to those that are still suffering from Hurricane Sandy and those that are still without power from her as well. We understand the dilemma that you are going thru . 
We also think that because of what happened with Sandy and what people are going thru they are kind of in denial about what could possibly happen with the next storm system... 

However, here at Down to Earth we can not look away just because the guidance may be starting to suggest something that we do not want to see. While we are hoping that this next storm does not have any setbacks to those recoveries going on we feel that mother nature goes on and so must we at Down To Earth forecasting center...

And so this brings us to the present situation of which has to do with an upcoming potential Noreaster which would effect the area wed night into thursday.. which after this storm system then things look to warm up so I guess you could say that is the light at the end of the tunnel that may become a little dimmed in the near term..

We have been steadfastly following the guidance as well as reading things around the internet and one thing i need to address is this:

1. I was reading earlier yesterday that we should not be looking at the 850 mb temperature map to  come to any forecast conclusions. Well this is simply wrong. 850 mb temps are the temperatures that are about 5000 feet up in the air. So if you have cold enough air in the upper levels and surface temperatures in the mid 30s..if precipitation is hard enough it can pull that colder air down from above to the surface and allow the precipitation to fall as frozen because it drops the temperature at the surface. This is what is called Dynamics in a storm system.
A. For example of this one only has to look back to last year at the end of October and the air mass ahead of the storm was warmer (then the present one) but the 850s were colder and what happened was Dynamics took over and we had a Historical East Coast Snowstorm at the end of  Oct 2011..

With that said lets begin this with what we have had in place and been using as a tool for the past couple years and it really has not let us down to this day. That would be to look at the NOGAPS for the upcoming storm system.
Now remember this is a very progressive biased model and this is what its showing at 84 hours out..

You can see here that the 00z NAM is very similar to the nogaps in at least the position of the low though of course there is timing difference..

What about the GFS?

GFS is actually pretty much on par with the NOGAPS (progressive) however it is further to the west then the NOGAPS.. (which in using the NOGAPS as a tool it should be further west) .. However one can see that the GFS is kind of on the warm side...

00z UKMET is even more progressive then the most progressive biased model but one thing you can take away from this is that the 850s are colder then for example on the GFS...

And you can also see how all three of these models are very similar overall to the NOGAPS...

We still have two models to look at yet and the next one is the GGEM...

You can clearly see that the GGEM is showing what would be a tightly , solidified Noreaster with interior snows and coastal rains. Keep in mind here that the GGEM is colder then the GFS and usually the GGEM is a warm biased model. So that drops a little hint as to the thermal profile on the GFS with it being to warm.
However this is where it now begins to turn interesting. For about 9-10 runs in a row we now turn to the European Model and this is the model that consistently called for Hurricane Sandy to take a left turn and into east central PA and that was the end result.. So now w hen we look at that model we see the following..

What we see here is not only consistency again with the track of the system..but we also notice the following:
1. A tightly would up organized Noreaster..
2. Much colder at the 850 level and colder then the 12 Z run..
3. We see much of the precipitation in the interior is in the form of frozen and on the order of about 4-8 inches of snow...

Folks it is really hard to go against the ECM when it is at 72 hours out and due to this in combination with the GGEM we have come up with an early scenario map of how things could potentially play out ..More or less a rough sketch and we listed potential impacts to according to the 00z ECM...

What is happening as well is the better dynamics are actually going to be south of the NYC region . This is where if these dynamics occur the better chances of snowfall will occur. As the storm moves further to the north it occludes and it then begins to weaken...

We are not going to put any specifics at this time range but we will note that this system has to be watched very carefully because it will be impacting regions that were just hit by hurricane sandy. 
There is still the possibility that this could go out to sea and not effect the region but with the ECM in its prime time range we think those chances are much smaller..

Again this is just a preliminary scenario map which is subject to change but it is made with the purpose of trying to prepare people for what could be a decent pre winter storm interior and for some heavy rains and winds along the coast. We will update this again 24 hours from tonight!

Final Update On Sandy Oct 28, 2012

This will be our final actual official outlook on Hurricane Sandy. As far as track wise we are not changing anything in reference to the track. We feel pretty strongly that where we have this making landfall ..Sandy should make landfall..and then move at a west northwest movement from there before moving North.. So for those who may have missed the map here that map is once again:

While not changing the track we are not changing any of the information that is on that track. We still feel that winds could be sustained from 65-75 MPH with wind gusts not out of the question reaching 100 MPH (mainly across NYC & LI) Further inland locations should be 50-65 MPH with gusts reaching 85 MPH not out of the question.

This will be a dangerous storm. The one factor that makes this storm even more dangerous is the factor that these winds will be over a 24-36 and perhaps 48 hour time period.. Top this off with rainfall on the order of 4+ to 10 inches and you have a recipe for disaster with trees coming down, powerlines going down ..and Flooding where the heaviest rains set up.
We been informed early in the evening on Saturday that Pennsylvania Power and Light company is anticipating widespread power outages and if and when that does occur that it could be out for as long as 8 days. 
While many are calling this a NorEaster..Sandy is still very much a tropical cyclone and a hurricane at that. While transitioning may be starting to occur..this really is not going to be a saving grace but rather cause the storm to deepen rapidly as it phases with the trough coming towards the east coast. In a nut shell the pressure on this storm could get down into the 930s range which would really = a much stronger hurricane but because it will become a Hybrid it will still only be a category 1 ..if it were purely tropical. The question is on WHEN does it become extratropical ..

So we are looking at the following: 
1 Winds 50-65 MPH gusting to 85 inland locations (NE burbs of the big cities ) to 65-75 MPH with gusts up to 100 over the areas mentioned above..And again what is bad is that this will be over at least a 24 to perhaps 48 hr time frame that this occurs.
2. 4-10 inches of rain depending on where you are located which will lead to #3
3. Flooding, coastal and Inland areas
4. Storm surge
5 This will be occurring with a full moon .
6. And not hearing to much about this anywhere is the water temperatures are warmer then normal and this should feed a more explosion into the storm itself.
7. Wide spread power outages
8. Structural damage especially to weaker buildings...
We here recommend that once this begins that noone be traveling on the roadways. I mean seriously why put your life in danger?

We ask you if you live in these areas being effected to make sure your loved ones family and friends no the reality of what is heading towards them. It could save their lives! 

Now it seems as though guidance has pretty much settled on a landfall between Seaside Heights and NYC. Exact landfall really is unimportant because once extra tropical the wind field will expand and cover all the way back to locations like in Ohio..
Lets look at the guidance tonight...and quite frankly it is a little on the scary side. 

GFS shows a system getting down into the 940s but perhaps most impressive is this models ensemble means when you look at how tight the isobars are across the region..

The tighter the isobars the stronger the winds and you can see what the means is suggesting.

00z GGEM still takes the system into NYC and then rides down across Northeast PA..

European takes the system down to about 940 and has the landfall around seaside heights NJ.

GFDL is also into central NJ with its landfall.
So as you can see all the guidance is suggesting a Major storm that is going to be effecting those along the east coast. 
There are still people out there that do not believe anything is coming and despite what you tell them they refuse to believe. However, this is not something long range or fantasy but rather in the short term at 48-60 hrs out.

 The image above is the current radar with satellite overlayed and you can already see that moisture is starting to move up into the state of PA.. While the low itself is just down off the east coast of the Carolinas. The image below is the rainbow IR image. 

Now this next image you are going to be seeing is the steering currents and you can see why the system is moving to the NE at the present time but if you look west you can also see the trough that is expected to merge with the system which will help to make the transition from tropical to extratropical. You can also see that trough beginning to take on a slightly negative tilt and this along with the NewFoundland blocking pattern will be enough to tug this system back towards the NW into the state of NJ..

As is had been the case there is still a wall of shear around the system but despite this Sandy has been holding together quite well and is a Cat 1 on the hurricane scale.

Convergence and divergence continue to be decent across Hurricane Sandy..

Strengthening should start to occur once the change from tropical to extra tropical begins to occur. We want to stress that this is indeed going to be a epic storm system and perhaps historical as well as the hurricane season goes out with a bang.
Weather should begin to go downhill today with rain starting to occur later in the afternoon but the brunt of this storm will be felt from Monday morning into the day on tuesday..
As we are putting the finishing touches on this update the 6 Z NAM is coming out so we are going to include those images to show you that even the NAM is on board. The chances of this storm missing us are completely down to Nil..

As you can see the latest NAM also suggests we are in for one heck of a storm over the next 36-48 hours. 
As far as snowfall the only locations we are really seeing for snowfall is in Southwest Central PA into Eastern West VA and also Western VA.. (where they could be looking at snow a foot or more)..otherwise the rest of the region is looking at very heavy rains with very strong gusty winds to hurricane strength.

Remember we will be providing coverage from 12 noon today until around 4:30 PM and then back at 10:30 pm to go till 6:30 AM.

Please folks this is a serious storm and something you want to take serious..

From all of us to all of you being effected by this our prayers and heart felt love goes out to each and every one of you!

Hurricane Sandy Update Oct 27th 2012

We want to start this off with Mt Hollys Briefing from Friday. The reason why we are doing this is that it has become quite clear that Hurricane Sandy which will be turning into and take on extratropical status will be impacting the area . For some time we have been talking about this because we have been adamant about sticking with the ECM/NOGAPS blend.

A hurricane or strong tropical storm will affect the mid-Atlantic region late this 

weekend into early next week.  Sandy will bring multiple dangers to our area:

• Strong damaging sustained winds up to or exceeding hurricane strength (74 

mph) over a prolonged period of time (24 to 48 hours).  Gusts will be higher.

• Extremely heavy rainfall.

• Major flooding along streams and rivers.

• Major coastal flooding.  The full moon on October 29 just makes things worse.

• The eventual track of this storm will determine the area which is impacted.   While 

Sandy could still track a little further to our north, or a little further to our south, we 

will be feeling her effects one way or the other starting late this weekend (Sunday), 

continuing into Tuesday of next week.  

• Next briefing package will be issued by 1000 AM Saturday, October 27

th

.

• Monitor our website at weather.gov/phi.

As you can clearly see from the above that we are talking about a prolonged period of time as to having winds at hurricane force across the region with higher gusts.

The models have generally come into a much better consensus tonight and we are going to look at as much guidance here as we can. 

 We are starting off with the NOGAPS and as you can see by the NOGAPS it is showing essentially a central NJ landfall. 

The above is now the 00z ukmet and you can see this model to would take this thru NJ and into central PA. 

The above is the GFS and essentially showing the same thing as the rest of the guidance above so far and if you remember we said that this model would start to wake up at 72 hours and under . Now however i think it is very important now since we are mentioning the GFS that we look at its ensemble means..

Folks there is just no way to describe the above image other then by saying that is the most jaw dropping image we have seen in a long time. And the ensemble means takes this into central PA as well.

Now this above is the GGEM..Remember just 24 hrs ago it was essentially showing a miss and it to has now joined back in with the rest of the guidance in taking this thru what appears to be New Jersey.

The above is the GFDL from 00z and this is a little further south with it going thru the Demarva region. However we are still indeed talking about a powerful storm system.

The above is the NAM and with this as well you can see we are talking about going across NJ. 

Finally this brings us to the ECM and you can see that the ECM is taking this into around the Cape May Nj area and then moving it due westward into PA..

The track of this storm is going to put many of us in the NE Quad which is the most dangerous side of the storm that you would want to be caught in or maybe not depending on how you are viewing it.
Now lets look at the current environment for Sandy..

Convergence and divergence continues to be rather excellent across the storm system..
However, the one thing that we still do not like is the factor that the shear has not slackened off and a wall of shear is still in its pathway..

It is somewhat lessening around sandy but it is still something we do not like to see. However we are anticipating for her to hold herself together thanks to the convergence and divergence ..however we would still like to see that shear drop off.

You can see the steering currents are such that they will take sandy towards the NNW for the time being.

You can also see on the satellite overlay image with the radar that rain is already starting to pick up across the south east part of the USA as that is associated with Sandy..

What is happening right now with sandy we feel is a continuation of the dry air and shear that is taking  a toll on her.

Folks this is a serious  storm and we are asking all our  readers to stand guard and  keep am eye on this storm as it has deadly potentials across the region.
next update will be 24 hours from now!

Stay tuned for the next discussion on this DANGEROUS storm!