Well tonights 00z GFS did a complete turnaround from its earlier run today at 12 Z. Also it trended more to the south and the east tonight then the 18 Z run. This change i was not expecting tonight to occur. However..I believe it has over compensated in its correction to the south and the east. In other words, I do not believe it is going to be that far south and east. At hours 108 though the GFS does start to hand off from the primary to a secindary developing over the VA area. This is also in good agreement from the 00z ECM from 12/28/08..Tonights 00z ECM has come in with the 850 levels slightly warmer in SE PA...but otherwise to the North and West of 95 things are looking like they are below freezing at all levels. The surface temperatures are not available on the ECM but I have found that using the solid black line in the lower right hand image which is the 850s ...translates well for the surface temps. As long as you are on the north and west side of that line you should be below freezing or right at freezing at the surface.
So my thoughts have not changed from earlier today and the scenario map that i made is still the same scenario that I would be looking at to happen and to occur!
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