Winter Thoughts As of November 6th 2010

In the winter forecast that was released by Real Wx Services the two analog years we looked at were the winter of 1975-76 and 1995-1996.

What we are going to do is take a look at the two years as analogs and the months of October and November and then compare them to this year and see if we can make any more deductions about Winter 2010-2011.

The above is October of this year 2010 and as one can see for the most part temperatures were normal to above normal with only localized areas below normal.

Looking at our two years as analogs , the above is )ct 1975 which all except Maine was above normal temperature wise..

And below is 1995 ..

This was also above normal with some much above normal as well and so the conclusion of this part is that both years were relatively similar to this year for the month of October.

When you go to October 2010 as a whole for the USA it is much more closer to the year 1975 then 1996.

Now what about the months of November? Well, while November just started and is only about a week into the month we can still get an ideal of what year we could be closer to between the analog years.

This is the current look for November for the Northeast and the US as a whole.

So far it pretty much has been an amplified trough in the east with ridging out west. What about our analog years?

November 1975

November 1995

Clearly for November so far ..this month is pointing more in the direction of 1995 as far as November is concerned. Troughiness with below normal in the east and above normal in the west which is completely similar to the first week of November so far.

Now interestingly enough when factoring in some of the new research that we were using this year with the hurricane season..with Tomas we are now at 19 named storms for the season.

So while Oct 2010 leaned in favor towards 1975-1976…the research with the hurricane season tied in leans 100% toward 1995-1996 as a stronger analog year based on that research alone.

1975 had 8 Named storms where as 1995 had 19 named storms..the same as 2010. Taking that a step further 1995 had 11 Hurricanes and 2010 had 12 hurricanes so once again another factor pointing out similarities towards the 1995-1996 analog year.

So it will be interesting to see how the rest of November turns out and alot depends on the Multi Julian Oscillation or the MJO. Currently the MJO is in the COD or Circle of Death..

However, it appears to be heading towards Phase 5…

The 500 mb anomalies for November for Phase 5 look like above which would basically mean seasonal to below seasonal temperatures across the east could be expected.

If the MJO were to resurface in Phase 6 then the anomalies would look more like this..

Which would put most of the country on the warmer side but the east, mainly Northeast would still be seasonal.

As of this present time..it appears that 1995-1996 would be the stronger of the two analog years.

Total Snowfall for KPHL in 1975-1976 was 17.5 inches

Total Snowfall for KPHL in 1995-1996 was  65.5 and also contained the Blizzard in 1996 January..

One season was slightly below normal and the other was well above normal thanks to the Blizzard in January.

Using the month of October alone for KPHL to KNYC..with october being above normal that would lead to a greater chance of the winter being warmer then normal in those areas. However, as we can see 1995 October was warm across the region and the winter of 1996 was anything but warm across the region.

Here at Real Wx Services , we feel that the outcome of November may very well determine the tale for the winter and presently 1995-1996 appears to be the stronger of the two analog years.