Shades of 2009-2010 seem to be gathering consistency on the European Computer model. I distinctly remember back in 1996 when the European Computer Model locked on to the blizzard in January 7 days out and the GFS & other models were playing cha cha with it & were completely lost.
Dec 19-21st 2009 NYC received their first major snow storm!
Could this same time frame be repeated in 2010?
Lets look at the ECM
Some play by play courtesy Tom of American Wx..
hr 162 sub 996 low off hatteras mod precip up to dc, lgt precip up to phl....phasing with vortex
hr 168 sub 988 low about 75-100 miles east of cape may...hvy precip dc to nuc...frz line east of the cities as well as 850s
hr 174 sub 976 coming ashore eastern li...hvy precip phl to nyc frz line goes right through nyc then just east of phl...850s off shore
hr 180 976 over boston...lgt precip over phl with some lgt to mod just to about nyc
This makes 4 runs in a row of where the ECM has showed a big east coast storm so consistency is there with this model. We need the other models to begin to latch on to this system..and if its a real legit threat they should begin to lock on with in the next few days.
For now here is what the 12 Z ECM showed for QPF..keep in mind this would be snow..
Scale for the map ..
pink 1.5-1.75
blue 1.25-1.5
red 1-1.25
gray .75-1
orangish brown-.5-.75
green .25-.5
purple .1-.25
turqouise .01-.1
If you have not yet joined up with the R.W.S forum now is the time to do so. We even offer a chatroom for the members to see the models as they come out with analysis of the models as well. Link can be found by clicking on the banner on the right side of the blog!
We will continue to monitor this situation as it gets closer!
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