Models have been waffling back & forth with its solutions on this system that could potentially effect the mid atlantic to the Northeast. On January 3rd the European Computer model was the first to sniff out this potential and showed a Historical East Coast Snowstorm but since that time has backed off and is now trying in some way shape or form to bring the system back. However..on its operational run it is showing it like an inverted trough.
GFS @ 12 Z was a miss to the south and to the east & at 18 Z it came back with a completely different solution but a solution on its way to a correct scenario.
So lets look at the solutions ..
This is really the first run of the GFS to show a potential primary with a secondary redeveloping and it did not quite make it to what I think it should have made it to and it certainly is not in agreement with its means.
Now lets look at the ECM ensemble means…
We can see on the ECM means a primary with a secondary as well ..so one could effectively say that the GFS @ 18 Z is trying to trend towards the ECM means. When you look at the ensemble means of the GFS ..one can say that even more..
By the way this is the first time that this means has been this far to the west and also the first time that it shows a primary and a secondary , just as the ECM did today. So a person could be correct in saying that the GFS is trending towards the ECM and the ECM was the first one to sniff the potential out…but they could all be playing catchup to another model.
We here at R.W.S have been accustomed thru the years to use the NOGAPS as a red flag to the global models. The reason for this is if you know the models bias it is a very progressive model (more so then the GFS) and has a very suppressed SE bias due to that progressive bias. So when you see the NOGAPS constantly presenting a scenario different to the globals that is more west or Northwest it throws a red flag to those models that are further east that they are incorrect with what they are showing.
So lets look back to last nights 00z NOGAPS to see what it was showing and then we will look at 18 Z to see what that is showing..
Ahh so now we begin to see the model that has been essentially flagging the globals and now those models means look exactly like this model did last night.
Picture becoming clearer yet? Well lets set up another clearer picture and the QPF images will not show the same because its different graphics but you know there is precipitation to the west as well of what it shows by looking at hour 108 which shows a primary again..
So here we see a primary by the precipitation to the west but that primary will die off and hand off to a secondary which you see is already near Hatteras now lets watch as the most PROGRESSIVE SE BIAS MODEL moves this storm..
Wow! We have one AMPLIFIED WESTERN SOLUTION on a model that has the most progressive SE BIAS when it comes to coastals. This is actually 5 runs in a row that the NOGAPS has been showing this type of a scenario. Talk about consistency.
Now we see the other models in there means..trending towards what this model has already shown!
As i stated last night I am more worried about this being a coastal hugger to an inland runner then i am worried about this escaping out to sea and that is because the pattern suggests that the blocking is breaking down from the North Central Block and moving towards a more strong –EPO block. This means that the 50/50 low will be moving out of the way and allowing amplification as this digs in. There will still be enough confluence and enough of a block that this will only be able to cut so far before redeveloping.
We continue with the level 1 alert and have gone to a scenario map that is very preliminary to just show the potential that exists with this system. As stated we do feel this will be a potential power house but also an inland or coastal hugger..By inland i mean right on the coast.
The above is subject to change but that is the current thinking that will be fine tuned as we get closer!
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