Besides the severe weather we been talking about the potential for a low pressure area or ULL (upper level low) getting cut off from the flow and stalling and or moving very slow across the region..
Guidance is still hinting at this potential and there is a strong signal within the ECM that raises flooding concerns as well. Please keep in mind that the ECM normally has a dry bias when it comes to precipitation and it is showing areas in WV southwest into E KY , E TN into North Carolina on the receiving end of 3-4 inches of rain over the next 240 hours . Then as you head further north into PA, MD, N Virginia and New Jersey it is showing totals of 4-5 inches and in some places more then 5 inches. This would raise flooding concerns even though it would be falling over a relatively long period of time.
The above is the ECM and below is the GFS..
These images only go thru 168 hrs ..However guidance such as the ECM is suggesting that precipitation will start in the friday to saturday time frame and it lasts thru 240 hours which is the end of the run which is on the 20th of the month..
So it is looking like the weather could take a turn for the worse and becomes substantially wetter! However..keep in mind Cut off low pressure areas are very difficult to pin down in medium range so the heavy rain totals and flooding concerns could be anywhere from the Southeast to the Northeast!
We will continue to stay on top of this and update this on a daily basis!
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