June 3rd Storm Chances

We are going to use the term storm chances today because the set up for severe is not exactly the strongest. First of all we are dealing with a warm front , not a  cold front and generally warm fronts do not work out to well with severe weather. 

Second of all there is a question as to just how much moisture can develop...

Temperatures will be warm to hot in the area with temperatures in the 80s and 90s 

Dew Points are generally going to be in the 50s 

Convective available potential energy or CAPE will be in the 1000-3000 range depending on where you are located..

Lift Index will be supportive of severe chances with around negative 5 to negative 6 

The two more important parameters are the EHI and the shear both of which are rather strong but again there is a question of how much moisture can develop..

Shear is 40-70 knots which is more then sufficient to produce severe weather.

If we can get some moisture to develop we could see parts of western Kansas , Western Tx and into SW Nebraska have the potential for super cells which could also lead to the region seeing some tornadic activity. The same would also be said for the Ok panhandle region.

Again we will have to wait and see how much moisture can actually develop but we have put this outlook together as to where severe chances are possible..