June 3rd Storm Chances

We are going to use the term storm chances today because the set up for severe is not exactly the strongest. First of all we are dealing with a warm front , not a  cold front and generally warm fronts do not work out to well with severe weather. 

Second of all there is a question as to just how much moisture can develop...

Temperatures will be warm to hot in the area with temperatures in the 80s and 90s 

Dew Points are generally going to be in the 50s 

Convective available potential energy or CAPE will be in the 1000-3000 range depending on where you are located..

Lift Index will be supportive of severe chances with around negative 5 to negative 6 

The two more important parameters are the EHI and the shear both of which are rather strong but again there is a question of how much moisture can develop..

Shear is 40-70 knots which is more then sufficient to produce severe weather.

If we can get some moisture to develop we could see parts of western Kansas , Western Tx and into SW Nebraska have the potential for super cells which could also lead to the region seeing some tornadic activity. The same would also be said for the Ok panhandle region.

Again we will have to wait and see how much moisture can actually develop but we have put this outlook together as to where severe chances are possible..

June 1st the Severe Weather Continues

This is what the evening time is suppose to look like by later this evening with a low pressure over south central TX and a cold front stretching northwards to a low pressure over the Lakes region. It will be this cold front that will serve as the trigger once again for severe weather with all facets of severe weather expected to occur and we will break down where we think has the best chance for tornado's.
First off the weather will continue to be hot out ahead of the front with temperatures into the 90s and elsewhere in the 70s to 80 range..

Dew points will once again be in the 60s to around 70 degrees allowing the atmosphere to be quite muggy and moist.

Shear is the next factor in play and that will be between 40 and 60 knots...

Instability or Convective Available Potential Energy is sufficient for severe weather from 1000 to as much as 3500

Lift Index will be from about negative 2 to negative 8 depending on where you reside..

Now to get into the tornado parameters ...Which would be the EHI and Helicity and the SWEAT index..

EHI is at or above 1 over a large area of real estate . But as you can see the worst is in SE TX to Southern ARK .. This is where we think the greatest chance of tornados will be . However anywhere with an 1 or above has the chance to see an isolated tornado from any supercells that do form.

You can see that the SWEAT index is also showing the same favored locations but would add Louisiana to the list where tornados are possible. 

Helicity is more of a non factor today compared to other days with the highest over western OH and west.

So with all the parameters in place we have put together this outlook for June 1st..

Once again if you are in the path of a storm that contains a tornado seek shelter immediately. Listen to your NWS for any latest watches warnings or special weather statements...

Widespread Outbreak Wed, Another Thursday ..Could Friday as well?

Low pressure over Oklahoma with a cold front trailing northwards to a low pressure that is located over the Dakotas. This is the scenario expected to be at 8 AM in the morning.  This cold front is having a tough time making its way eastward but is doing so slowly each day. The reason for the hard time is because of the ridge that has built in over the east producing the very warm to hot weather with temperatures in the lower 90s.  You can see this ridge indicated by the high pressure off the east coast. So the system is forced more or less to move to the NE trying to take the path of least resistance. 
While the day is not over yet we once again have had widespread reports of severe weather all facets of severe were involved..

210 total reports on the day so far with the day still not over and this would qualify as the second day of the outbreak of severe weather. First being wed..second being thursday and now we head into friday and the question is due we have a third day that would qualify as an outbreak?

We think the answer continues to be yes it will be another widespread severe active day..

Firstly, temperatures once again are going to be in the 70s to 90s depending on where you are located..

Dew Points once again are going to be in the 60s and 70s indicating that the atmosphere will have moisture needed for severe weather. These storms will produce very heavy rains in addition to large hail and damaging winds. 

Wind shear is probably a bit more impressive today with the wind shear from 30 knots to as much as 60 knots across the region.

Convective Available potential energy or CAPE which is needed ingredient to feed fuel into any storms will range from 1000 to as much as 4000 down into the OK area.

Lift index will also be in place with lift index as low as negative 10 or greater.

EHI is highest once again from OK into Ark into Missouri and above 1 in further north locations as well . This is an indication of where the greatest chance for tornadic activity can be .

Helicity is also supportive of supercells in the aforementioned areas. And finally the SWEAT index which will be posted next is allocated with in these same general areas...

SWEAT INDEX

So with the warm to hot air in place, a trigger marching east to Northeast across the country ..severe parameters in place ..we once again expect today to be a very active day and could be just as widespread as the past two days have been. 

We remind you that if you are in the path of a tornado warned storm to seek shelter immediately until the storm has passed. If you are outside the areas that were mentioned above as tornadic activity possible then your main threats are winds and hail along with heavy rains.

Once again be safe and keep your eye to the sky when out and about! 

Outbreak Occurred On Wednesday -What about Thursday?

An outbreak occurred on Wednesday and not just some small limited area as some professional agencies were originally talking about. This is why we do not give forecasts until 24 hrs or less before the event because this certainly proved to NOT be a small limited area. 

So will Thursday be like wednesday or will it tone down some? This is going to depend on where you live and reside. 

Lets look at what should be current conditions for the afternoon and the evening ..

A cold front is going to be marching east across the central part of the Nation with a low pressure over the Dakotas region and a low back near the OK panhandle region where it turns into a warm front. All the action today is going to be out ahead of this cold front and slowly pressing to the east where a ridge has kind of set up shop and will be providing temperatures near if not in the 90s

So lets take a look at the parameters that will be in place for today. We think compared to yesterday today will be toned down with the exception of maybe in Central and Eastern OK. This is where we feel will have the best chance for Tornado's 

Though if you look at the EHI you will see above 1 going north and Northeast from OK which means supercells are possible and with the EHI tornadic activity could occur anywhere in that green area. 

CAPE is very widespread with 1000+ up depending on where you reside...

There is also plenty of lift across the region as well...

Highest SWEAT index is in OK to Kansas... 

Helicity is also elevated in pretty much the same areas as we mentioned above with the EHI..

Its going to be a muggy day out there with the dewpoints in the 60s and 70s across the region.

Wind shear will be at least 30 to as much as 50 knots which is sufficient for severe weather.

Looking at the ECM you can essentially see why there is such a broad area for severe weather but once again we think the worst will be across OK and KS as far as tornado potential is concerned. If you are outside these regions the main threats will be strong gusty winds and Large Hail...

We will be here to follow this situation all day today ..however we do not see this day being as bad as yesterday was with as many over all reports. 

Wednesday Perhaps The Most Severe Potential

We are going to start off by looking at what we think current conditions should be like at 18Z tomorrow afternoon. Now keep in mind we have been talking about this since the 25th of the month when we posted the map on our facebook page. 
We have one low pressure over Southeast Colorado from there extends a cold front that goes back to the west south west and another front that spreads to the north to a low pressure system over the Dakota region. From there we have a warm front that spreads east northeast into the great Lakes region and swings back south into the Northeast region. We also have a dry line south from the low over SE CO that goes directly due south.. It will be these low pressure areas , the associated fronts and the dry line that will be responsible for what could be an active day across the region.
One thing we will continue to have in place is extremely warm air across the region with temperatures in the 80s..

Dewpoints are going to continue to be also quite high across the region with 60s and 70s making it feel even warmer then it actually is and adding moisture into the atmosphere.

Now to the actual severe weather Parameters and we are going to be taking a look at the CAPE, SWEAT, Lift Index, EHI, Helicity and the Wind Shear.. We are going to start off with the shear first..

Shear will be 30-50 knots which is sufficient enough for severe weather to occur,  

Lift Index is as negative as negative 8 ..So there will be plenty of lift in the atmosphere.
Now on to the more important indexes that have to be taken into consideration, That would be the CAPE, SWEAT, EHI and Helicity..

CAPE 

CAPE ranges from 1000 to about 3000 which is more then sufficient for severe weather. 

EHI you can see is quite high from locations In Southern TX to North Central Tx thru western OK and West Central Kansas into Central Nebraska ..

Allocating with these same regions is the Helicity 

We also have the SWEAT index lining right up with these same regions...

So we think that the best chances for tornados are going to be in the areas that we mentioned above. Outside these areas the main threats will be winds and hail. 
We are not going to go with a slight risk or severe zone in the Northeast as the guidance we are using suggests that there is no CAPE into these regions..especially the ECM so anything there would be Garden Variety and just local severe isolated..
Remember if you are in a path of a Tornado on the ground to take cover and shelter immediately and pay attention to your NWS outlets!