Saturday, October 9, 2010

Northern Hemispheric ACE Dips Even Lower!

Real Wx Services since the beginning of the 2010 hurricane season have been talking about the Correlation between the Southern Hemispheric ACE and the Northern Hemispheric ACE and how they have correlated quite well over the past 12 years.
SH ACE was near normal which pointed to the NH ACE being at the best near normal. This point was constantly debated and many times I was put under scrutiny for stating this correlation and how it means nothing. So here is the latest as of the 7th of OCT.

Dr. Ryan N. Maue's 2010 Global Tropical Cyclone Activity Update
Update: Current Year-to-Date analysis of Northern Hemisphere and Global Tropical Cyclone Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) AND Power Dissipation Index (PDI) has fallen even further than during the previous 3-years. The global activity is at 33-year lows and at a historical record low where Typhoons form in the Western Pacific.
While the North Atlantic has seen 15 tropical storms / hurricanes of various intensity, the Pacific basin as a whole is at historical lows! In the Western North Pacific stretching from Guam to Japan and the Philippines and China, the current ACE value of 48 is the lowest seen since reliable records became available (1945) and is 78% below normal*. The next lowest was an ACE of 78 in 1998. See figure below for visual evidence of the past 40-years of tropical cyclone activity.

nh_ace_yearly

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