Subtropical Storm Otto

Its really interesting to look at this system. This system is named Subtropical Storm Otto.

Here is an AVN shot

Another Water Vapor shot

And a visible shot ..

Several things to realize from these images but before we do lets look at the latest DVORAK..

Date :  07 OCT 2010    Time :   064500 UTC
      Lat :   23:40:50 N     Lon :   68:12:20 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                2.1 /1008.2mb/ 31.0kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T# 
                1.5     1.5     1.5

     Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP :  +0.0mb

 Center Temp : +15.7C    Cloud Region Temp :  -3.8C

 Scene Type : SHEAR (>1.25^ TO DG) 

 Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION 

 Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC      
 Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC  

 Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT 
                   Weakening Flag : ON    
           Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG  

This actually shows this system is weakening and back down to tropical depression strength instead of tropical storm strength.

If you check the file history this never showed anything more then 33 KT ..(click here)

It has always been said that DVORAK is second best to RECON. However..this brings up a case of is the DVORAK accurate and this system has never really gotten off the ground or is it as it is being broadcasted as Otto?

This was about when convection was at its best around the 18 Z time frame ..by 00z we looked like this..

And now of course the most recent..

As you can see this system does not look all that impressive and has not looked all that impressive. I completely understand that subtropical systems do not look like the classical tropical system but all images seem to point to a system that has never actually gotten its act together enough to even make subtropical storm conditions.

The ULL is still completely involved and almost collocated with what was 97 L ..The center is still also almost completely consisted of dry air and is exposed. Again, these are not things you typically would see with something classified as a tropical storm.

So while the National Hurricane Center seems to say it is strengthening everything actually seems to be pointing to the opposite which is weakening from the earlier strength that they put this at.

So it would not be too surprising to see the next update come out with a weaker system..although it would not surprise me if they kept it status quo either.

Regardless of this development yesterday or as it seems to me lack of development this system contains no threat to the east coast and should move N and then NE  away from the US..

We will be following and updating on this system all day today…