Invest 94 L Thoughts

You are looking at a current water vapor and the area of interest is to the southwest of Jamaica. This would be Invest 94 L.

Latest guidance is not very impressed with developing this system.

Upper level winds are favorable for development

Wind shear is light –generally less then 20 knots although greater shear is actually NW of the system.

Upper Level Divergence & Lower level convergence is also favorable .

However, there are several issues that remain in place that are preventing development.

1. Even though the Invest is not powerful its not moving. Whenever a tropical system is stationary it causes waters underneath it to rise to the surface and this can bring cooler waters into play.

2. The system is broad and the 850 MB, 700 MB & 500 MB vorticities are not stacked up.

3. And this is important for any future development..

There is dry air entrainment taking place. In other words there is dry air filtering in via the mid levels into the system and this alone will hinder development.

Finally you will notice in the steering currents there is a huge blocking ridge in place..

So essentially this system has nowhere to go at the present time.

While NHC has this listed as a 30 % chance of developing ..R.W.S is currently placing this at a less then 20% chance of developing. Even if this system were to develop if it were to move off anywhere to the North or Northwest it would be running into two problems. Higher shear and very dry air indicated by the orange on the image above that shows the location of the invest!

Stay tuned ..we will update this as needed thru out the coming days!