Two negatives this evening. First the dry air to the west has increased slightly. Second the shear has also increased slightly as of 21 Z update..
However, the system is now in the best area of convergence, divergence and vorticity!
We still feel that this system has a good chance at becoming the first hurricane of the season . We will continue to monitor this system thru the evening and daytime tomorrow!We are keeping the chances of this developing into a tropical cyclone at 60% .
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