The following is based off the latest SREF/NAM/GFS. A blend of the three models.
CAPE generally 500-5000
Lift Index is 0 to – 8 depending where you are
Lapse rates 6.5-8.0
Shear is more then ample with 40 + knots
Low pressure north of NY state with a cold front off the coast by this evening trailing to the south and then to the west and then north to another area of low pressure over the Dakotas.
The low pressure over the Dakotas will lift NNE and this will push a warm front to the north/northeast as well. By about 2 AM this low pressure will be located over Minnesota with a cold front trailing to the south and another low pressure should develop over Kansas.
That secondary low pressure will move NE and should be located over IOWA by tomorrow evening. This low pressure will also be associated with a complex frontal set up.
It will be these low pressure areas and their associated fronts that will be the trigger for showers and thunderstorms of which some will be severe. The main threats will be winds over 60 MPH along with large hail but with the wind shear present we can not rule out tornado’s in the severe weather zone!
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