Tropical Storm Don is Born on the 27th & Severe Potential the 28th

To start with we have tropical storm Don being born today! We had actually talked about this yesterday becoming the first hurricane of the Atlantic Season and you can not get there without going thru a Tropical Storm first! Proud to say we called this before the National Hurricane Center!

With that mentioned the above is based on the latest GFS/NAM/SREF blend!

Low pressure will be moving across southern Canada and attached to this is a complex frontal system. As this low moves to the east the warm front will lift up towards the North..

This frontal system will be the trigger for severe weather tomorrow across the outlook area.

The main threats across the zone area will be severe winds and hail.. As is the rule an isolated tornado can never be ruled out but that should be confined to the midwest/plains region!

Brief Update on 90 L

Two negatives this evening. First the dry air to the west has increased slightly. Second the shear has also increased slightly as of 21 Z update..

However, the system is now in the best area of convergence, divergence and vorticity!

We still feel that this system has a good chance at becoming the first hurricane of the season . We will continue to monitor this system thru the evening and daytime tomorrow!We are keeping the chances of this developing into a tropical cyclone at 60% .

July 27th Severe Weather Potential

The following is based off the latest SREF/NAM/GFS. A blend of the three models.

CAPE generally 500-5000

Lift Index is 0 to – 8 depending where you are

Lapse rates 6.5-8.0

Shear is more then ample with 40 + knots

Low pressure north of NY state with a cold front off the coast by this evening trailing to the south and then to the west and then north to another area of low pressure over  the Dakotas.

The low pressure over the Dakotas will lift NNE and this will push a warm front to the north/northeast as well. By about 2 AM this low pressure will be located over Minnesota with a cold front trailing to the south and another low pressure should develop over Kansas.

That secondary low pressure will move NE and should be located over IOWA by tomorrow evening. This low pressure will also be associated with a complex frontal set up.

It will be these low pressure areas and their associated fronts that will be the trigger for showers and thunderstorms of which some will be severe. The main threats will be winds over 60 MPH along with large hail but with the wind shear present we can not rule out tornado’s in the severe weather zone!

Current Thoughts On Invest 90 L

This is the latest in the tropical wave department and it is 90 L. 90 L was an invest that was deactivated and is getting its act together and doing so quite nicely.

We here at Real Wx Services feel that 90 L has the potential to become the first hurricane of the season and this potential hurricane could very well take a track towards southern Tx. We put the chances of 90 L developing into a tropical system at 60 % with in the next 48 hours!

Lets look at the surroundings:

As you can see via above shear is not an issue as it is splitting the shear with the highest north and south with only 5-10 knots of shear and this is not in any way detrimental to the development of the system.

Dry air is also not going to be a hindrance to the development of 90 L. So the two things that are normally setbacks for developing tropical waves , are actually preventing a favorable setting for development!

AS of 15 Z the best area of convergence was off to the NW of the system but the divergence over the system is very favorable for development!

The only other negative that we can see is the best area of vorticity was off to the NW as well..

Now lets take a look at some other things such as direction and also water temps and tropical cyclone heat potential ..

The steering flow suggests that we should continue to move off to the west northwest over the time being which would take it thru some warm waters..

Now the last image is the TCHP image and you can see that where the invest is currently the heat potential for development is very favorable for development but as we get further into the GOM things become slightly less favorable with cooler heat potential. Generally when you look at the scale you want to see the area in 80 or above and that is why where it is now located is a very favorable setting.

As you can see this is what the GFS means are thinking trackwise for this system. The ECM however has a bit more south tracking around the Tx/Mexico border.

AS the most recent image above shows the convection is really starting to blossom around the center and this is no surprise given what we said above!

Residents in southern TX to Mexico need to pay attention to this system because ATM there is nothing holding this system back from developing into the first hurricane of the season on the atlantic side!

Stay tuned for more information and further updates!

July 25th Severe Weather Outlook

Low pressure off the delmarva with a stationary front dividing western PA from eastern PA. This stationary front is attached to a low pressure which is North of ohio over the Great Lakes. From this low is a cold front that stretches south and then west and then towards the NW to a low pressure over Montana (western) .

Stationary front should lift NE as a warm front as the low pressure off the delmarva lifts NE. The low north of ohio will also lift NE and cut thru NY state. This will drag a cold front across the area tomorrow evening and into the overnight hours. Garden variety and severe storms will be possible along with heavy rain in association with this front. Main threats will be winds and hail and heavy rains!

July 24th Severe Weather Discussion

Low pressure is over lake Ontario. From this low extends a cold front to the NE which is moving thru Maine. Extending southwest from this low is a cold front to another area of low pressure over Western Minnesota.Another low pressure should form over SE PA.

The low pressure over SE PA should move Northeast ..While the low pressure over Western Minnesota moves off towards the east. This will cause the cold front to start to sag and drop towards the south and should be dissecting PA in half by about 00z. However..it looks to stall in that location.

This front will be the focus for the potential of showers and thunderstorms during the day tomorrow of which some could become severe. Winds and hail being the primary threats across the zone above.

Monday a more potent cold front will come thru and should be the better potential for severe storms across the region as before that point and time we are depending more on weak impulses to break down the strong heat ridge.

Monday another cold front will come thru and will give us a very brief break from the heat but then that cold front will also stall to the south and after tuesday will begin to lift back towards the north as a warm front and temperatures will once again be back into the 90s.

At this point and time it does not look like we will be dealing with temperatures like the past few days where they were at 100 or greater. Never the less it is going to be hot after a brief cool down!

Stay tuned for more information!

July 22nd Severe Weather Outlook

Hot weather continues across majority of the USA with a cold front currently across Northern Ohio into the NE with a low pressure north of NY state in Canada..cold front then stretches from that low to the ENE to another low over SE Canada. This cold front stretches back west to a low pressure area over E Kansas.

This cold front over the next 24 hrs is going to be dropping Southeast and should be by 00z sliding southwards across the central PA area.

This cold front coupled with strong day time heating…CAPE of 500-5000, Lift index as low as –10 , lapse rates 6.0-7.0, high dewpoints could create the potential for thunderstorms and severe thunderstorms with the main threats being large hail and damaging winds.

Stay tuned for more information should it become needed