This is a cropped version of the satellite version…If you go to this link http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html
And click on Trop plots you can see this for your very self.
Divergence and convergence continue to be good with the system and Earl has been strengthening..as was noted he is back to a Cat 4 with pressure of 931 mbs and the eyewall is open.
Looking at the latest guidance which would be 00z…
00z NAM
So the 00z Guidance that has come in tonight has shifted to the east and now there is just one model that is showing an east coast landfall.
Even though Earl has been strengthening he should actually start to reverse that trend in the overnight hours. Shear continues to increase ahead to the North and shear is actually as of 00z starting to increase towards its center.
The models have generally shifted east likely due to Earl being more NE then the track that NHC had out as of 8 PM.. So with the next update from NHC the track should shift east again.
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