Aside from Matthew which is now a depression and Lisa which is in the process of weakening..the tropics are once again rather quiet.
There is once again a lot of talk around the internet about Nicole and Otto and Paula but … ATM none of them exist and there is nothing even highlighted as developing in the next 48 hrs.
So this poses a question..
Tonights 00z GFS shows something developing in the next 24 hrs and then by 72 hrs moves it into the Caribbean
By 96 hrs it is heading towards Cuba ..South Fl by 102 hrs.. by 108 hrs it appears to split the energy into two low pressures which is possibly indicating a rather strung out system…
And by 120 hrs its over the SE coast.
On the other hand the 00z ECM does not really begin to develop anything until about 72 hrs out and generally moves it in the same direction and then also it is showing a strung out system by 120 hrs ..
So with the models showing such a large strung out system ..at this point and time I am not even confident enough to say that we are going to get Nicole out of this. This could just end up being a broad area of low pressure that because of its size might not be able to spin up and effectively become a named system.
This is why the talk of Nicole, Otto and Paula is really premature. Its not 100% clear that even Nicole is a certainty..
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