It simply amazes me the things you read around the internet and how many people believe the models are gospel. How many of the models showed Tropical Storm Igor becoming a Tropical depression again? I believe you could say not a single model showed this. Also reading comments such as convection is deep and symmetrical and across the center of circulation but then you see images such as this..
Kind of clearly argues that the convection is still to the west of the center and while it is deep it has been in a pulsing type manner and this is indicative of some decent shear.
Decent in the amount of 20-30 knots…but this is not the only negative at this point and time..
Dry air is around the system. What about convergence and divergence?
As you can see the convergence is to the west of the system and the divergence is not all that great at the moment either as of 3 Z, which is the most recent and available guidance.
The models are all over the place from due west to others wnw to some that are going those directions to a sw direction and then east and one even doing a loop.
Pressure at last check was still at 1004. And last check was still showing a 30 KT storm. If the convection can maintain itself we could go back to a tropical storm IGOR at either the 2 AM or 5 AM advisory.
However, its future is still pretty much up in the air as far as where this is going and what intensity it will be.
Forecast philosophy still remains the same with this becoming a recurve and not effecting the east coast..
Coverage will continue from now till 5 AM and then from noon till 4 PM EST.
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