At the present time the strongest of storms are still down to the Southwest in Western TN vicinity. The question becomes is does the wave of low pressure developing along the front actually cause the area to become more stable and just result in some heavier rains and not so much severe weather?
You see the area of low pressure developing over Western TN on the above surface pressure map.
Steering currents at the present time suggest that this area of low pressure should move right over the region which would produce at the very least some heavier rains.
The latest image shows that the region from SW PA into central and then east central PA into SE PA is in 500-1000 MUCAPE..
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s16/cpsh/cpsh.gif?1302549062945 (time sensitive)
However..currently the Lift index is only 0 –2 across the above mentioned regions
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s16/muli/muli.gif?1302549185079 (time sensitive)
Super cell composite currently more favorable in central PA
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s16/scp/scp.gif?1302549285332 (time sensitive)
So at this point and time it would appear that the best chances for severe weather as far as PA is concerned would be central PA and points to the East though we can not yet rule out Southwestern or Western PA until we see what effects this area of low pressure has. There is a good chance that it could help to stabalize things in that region and perhaps even further to the east.
This very well could end up being a moderate risk busted by Storm Prediction center as well. We will continue to watch things and see how they unfold!
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