We may end up having to fine tune this tomorrow morning. However at this point and time this is based off the SREF/NAM/00z ECM a blend of the three models.
CAPE values range from 500-2500 across the region
Lift Index is –2 to –8 across the region
SWEAT index is 350-500 across the region
Energy Helicity Index is 1.0-2.0 across the region
0-6 KM shear is around 50 knots
With SW flow in place and guidance showing a upper level trough moving out of the rockies and ejecting eastwards ..You can see this in last nights ECM
You can also see the same thing on the 12 Z guidance from today!
This trough advancing eastward, and an attending cold front in combination with a strong lower level Jet should cause storms to initiate and fire across the region.
With sufficient shear in place , strengthening lower level jet, decent CAPE, LI and EHI..and a southwest flow out ahead of the cold front and trough..colder upper levels of the atmosphere would suggest that large hail would be the primary threat.
However , with the strengthening lower level jet and helicity in place there could also be a risk for tornado’s as well.
The question that has to be brought up is will this become another outbreak across the Southeast and tennessee valley area. At this point and time we feel that on Sunday that region will be more or less dealing with scattered storms and really does not have anything to worry about as far as anything as bad or even close to what they just went thru!
Stay tuned for further updates including a revised map likely later tonight or tomorrow morning.
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