Real Wx Services: August 13th Severe Weather Outlook

Severe Weather Discussion ... Temperatures today are still going to be on the warm to hot side with the temperatures in the 80s to 90s.. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/08/13/00/NAM_221_2012081300_F18_TMPF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png ... Dew Points are also going to make it feel humid across the severe area with them in the 60s.. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/08/13/00/NAM_221_2012081300_F18_DPTF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png .. Convective Available Potential Energy will be between 500-3500 depending on where you are located.. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/08/13/00/NAM_221_2012081300_F24_CAPE_SURFACE.png .. Lift Index will be from about 0 to negative 6 depending on where you are located.. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/08/13/00/NAM_221_2012081300_F24_PLI_30_0_MB_ABOVE_GROUND.png.. Shear will be lacking over the zone in the east while it will be greatest in the area to the west where it will be 30-50 knots..http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/08/13/00/NAM_221_2012081300_F24_SHRM_500_MB.png .. Helicity is really a Non Factor today.. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/08/13/00/NAM_221_2012081300_F24_HLCY_3000_M_ABOVE_GROUND_0_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png .. Energy Helicity Index however is pretty impressive.. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/08/13/00/NAM_221_2012081300_F24_EHI_3000_M.png .. We do not have Helicity in place with this EHI and shear is kind of meager in that region so we are only going with a 2% or less tornado threat.. At the surface.. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/92fwbgus.gif ..http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/93fwbgus.gif .. A warm front will be pushing thru the region then followed by a cold front ..these fronts will serve as the trigger. Main threats will be winds and hail ..

Down to Earth Forecasting-What's The Difference?

Down to Earth Forecasting is a concept that I have created. Its a concept that bases forecasts of the weather on actual analysis of the weather models, patterns, signals, analogs etc. It does not tolerate wishcasting or hypecasting. Its goal is to provide forecasts that are 100% honest as well as, forecasts that are as close to accurate as possible!
We believe that if you teach others how to read weather models, how to pick up on weather patterns and the basic concepts of weather..that you can actually do away with wishcasting and hypecasting and have all forecasts based on REALITY!

Down to Earth Forecasting History & Team!

Down to Earth Forecasting was a concept that was originally called Bringing Weather Back To Reality! This concept basically implied that everywhere I went there was too much forecasting of what people wished for etc in there back yard. If the weather models called for 4 inches , people would be calling for a Blizzard! This type of forecasting is actually called wishcasting and is something that I have never been able to tolerate as a weather hobbyist. So i came up with the name of Bringing Weather Back to Reality which meant that I believed in making forecasts that were based on sound analysis of all weather parameters involved. I then decided the name was too long and hence changed BWBTR to Real Weather Services or R.W.S & the most recent change to Down To Earth Forecasting which we think is more suitable!

Down To Earth Forecasting will issue special weather statements when conditions and time permit for all types of weather from winter weather to summer weather and you will find that when we issue a statement it is always in ADVANCE of the NWS. This is something that we take pride in! Getting the word to our readers first and promptly.

Down To Earth Forecasting consists of Kevin Quigley & Rick Boucher & Creator and owner Matt Strouse. These three individuals make up Down To Earth Forecasting and one day will be a household name

Monday, August 13, 2012

August 13th Severe Weather Outlook

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