Real Wx Services: August 16th Severe Weather Outlook

Thursday, August 16, 2012

August 16th Severe Weather Outlook

August 16th Severe Weather Outlook
Low pressure will continue to move across the southern Tier of Canada with an attending frontal system. A warm front will be pushing east ..followed by a cold front and this frontal system will provide severe potential . Across the southeast a stationary front may serve as a trigger for some isolated severe..
Temperatures

Temperatures out ahead of this front will be warmer once again with anywhere from the 80s to the 90s..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/08/16/00/NAM_221_2012081600_F18_TMPF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
Dew Points

Dew points will be mainly in the 50s and 60s across the region..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/08/16/00/NAM_221_2012081600_F18_DPTF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png

Convective Available Potential Energy..
CAPE will be anywhere from 500-4500 depending on where you are located..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/08/16/00/NAM_221_2012081600_F24_CAPE_SURFACE.png

Lift Index will be 0 to about negative 8 depending on where you are located..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/08/16/00/NAM_221_2012081600_F24_PLI_30_0_MB_ABOVE_GROUND.png

Shear across the SE will be lacking (hence the isolated) but elsewhere we are looking at shear from 30-60 knots
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/08/16/00/NAM_221_2012081600_F24_SHRM_500_MB.png

Helicity
Helicity is pretty much going to be a non factor cause the greatest is where there is going to be no real moisture..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/08/16/00/NAM_221_2012081600_F24_HLCY_3000_M_ABOVE_GROUND_0_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png

Energy Helicity Index
EHI is above 1 in a large area . So we are going to put a 2% tornado risk across the region from Eastern lower Michigan to Indiana southwest Ark as well as W KY and W TN...
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/08/16/00/NAM_221_2012081600_F24_EHI_3000_M.png
Otherwise we are looking at the main threats as being winds and hail across the severe zone...

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