Invest 95 L..Our thoughts !

The images above are images of 95 L which is in the southern gulf of mexico. At the present time we are not very impressed with this system and the guidance is not in agreement. Essentially the guidance for the most part suggests that this is going to get in very weak steering currents...

The only models that remain somewhat interesting are the 00z UKMET and the 00z GGEM but even these keep the system relatively  weak..

00z UKMET takes a weak system towards Florida 

The GGEM is in a similar train of thought with a weak system towards Florida.

Lets look at a few things this morning ..

First off the vorticity centers are not aligned or vertically stacked.... 

The greatest area of convergence and divergence is to the south of the system over land. This is more then likely the reason for the greatest convection being over land .

While shear is decreasing in the immediate area of 95 L it is actually increasing in the central and northern parts of the gulf of mexico and as the shear map shows ..

Shear is as high as 40 knots to the north of the system.

So conditions are not exactly favorable for development at the present time. We do think its possible that this could make depression status if it can develop convection closer to the center. 

Latest visible above is suggesting that there is stronger convection firing closer to the center. However..those that have been disappointed so far with the Hurricane season we think will continue to remain disappointed as we do not see this becoming much more then a very weak tropical storm ...