Thursday, September 30, 2010

Tornado Watch Issued for SNJ and south.

phi

If you are not aware the NWS has issued a tornado watch for SNJ, DE and parts of MD.  Please if you are out and about today ..keep an eye on the sky!

Another Invest On The Horizon-97 L

20100930.0730.msg-2.ir.97L.INVEST.25kts.1009mb.13.1N.43.2W.100pc

wv-l

The above image is the latest invest 97 L and the image below is the Atlantic Wide View water vapor loop to show the broad picture and to show just how broad and large this next invest actually is.

Shear is anywhere from as low as 5 knots across the area to as much as 20 knots across the southern part of the invested system.

wg8shr

There is strong divergence occurring with the system ..however..convergence is lacking at the present time.

wg8conv

wg8dvg

Now at 2 AM ..NHC had this area that is showing as being an invest at only a 10 % chance of developing and the area further behind at 20 % . However..you can see that according to the NAVY site ..the invest is actually the first area. However..it appears rather complicated as one loops the water vapor image it appears as if the two separate areas are merging together.

It also appears that when you loop the water vapor image above that the northern side of the system is getting sheared off. The system is generally heading towards the WNW.

Due to the large size of the system it should have a rather difficult time tightening up and any development of this will be slow to occur.

We will continue to monitor this developing situation but we wanted to break the news on this out in a timely manner.

Wednesday, September 29, 2010

So what is really happening?

We know that what was the energy that NHC named Nicole is not going to be moving up the east coast. However, moisture from what was a monsoonal trough of low pressure will be entrained into a developing area of low pressure around the Carolina coast.

sat_sfc_map

This developing area of low pressure will lift off to the NE following the front that it has developed off of. Moisture from down south will continue to train up the east coast ..providing copious amounts of rainfall.

There will also be some gusty winds but this has nothing to do with any tropical system but rather the approaching low pressure area and the high pressure that will be dropping down into the region. So its the difference between the high pressure and the low pressure gradient that will be creating these gusty winds-not anything tropical.

Flooding will become and issue because the rain may come down so heavy at times that it will run off..instead of just saturate into the ground.

This is what the current thinking is for rainfall..

CURRENTFORECASTIMAGE1-9

Indeed it is very possible that the area of MD that is in 2-4 inches could very well fall into the category of 3-6 inches.

Be careful if you are out and about travelling and come across any standing water. Do not attempt to cross as you do not know how deep it could be.

Is there any question now?

Alright lets look back at some things:

 
TROPICAL STORM NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

...DEPRESSION BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...CENTER STILL NEAR CENTRAL
CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 80.6W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ESE OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SW OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES

 


A depression becomes a tropical storm would indicate a strengthening storm. Nevermind the fact that this pronouncement occurred while over land. No matter where it occurred it indicates strenthening…


Then just three hours later…

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010
200 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

...CIRCULATION OF NICOLE BECOMING POORLY DEFINED...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 80.6W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NE OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SW OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES

 


Center becoming poorly defined..


Next the 5 PM advisory..


TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010
500 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

SATELLITE...AIRCRAFT...AND SURFACE DATA SHOW THAT THE CIRCULATION OF
NICOLE HAS BECOME ELONGATED THIS AFTERNOON. THE CENTER...
WHICH WAS NEVER VERY WELL DEFINED...HAS BECOME UN-TRACKABLE AND
THIS WILL BE THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.

 


Here we see a center which was never well defined mentioned.. but wait a second…


TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS ACQUIRED A
SUFFICIENTLY WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AND ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
That is not what was stated when you upgraded this to a tropical depression.
So which is it? 
1 A very well defined center 
Or 
2. Never had a well defined center
A contradiction and a conflict of statements here. 
How does a strengthening storm just suddenly dissipate? How can you have a well defined center and then say it was never well defined? 
This is a clear case in my opinion of NHC padding the figures. In other words..lets name this storm because we went with 14-23 named storms and we are not sure if there is going to be anything coming after this. At least this way we hit 14. 
Yes I truly believe this to be the case. This storm should never have been named.
Regardless of the blunder above. R.W.S has been adamantly clear that it was not NICOLE or a tropical cyclone that would be coming up the east coast but instead a baroclinic low that would develop and move along the front up the coast.
This is why we have never believed the hype of a superstorm moving up the coast.  This is why we never believed it would be a tropical cyclone moving up the coast. An area of low pressure does not always mean or represent a tropical cyclone.
Take it 5 days at a time and you will be ok! 
Will be issuing a rainfall map this evening…
 

Nicole? NHC is saying Nicole

vis-l

wv-l

The above images are what the National Hurricane Center is calling Nicole. The center of circulation as of 11 AM was still over central cuba. As of 8 AM it was over cuba. At 8 am this was still a tropical depression and as of 11 AM while STILL OVER LAND they upgraded this to a tropical storm and named it nicole.

20100929.1531.trmm.wind.16L.NICOLE.30kts.996mb.21.9N.80.9W.45pc

There is absolutely nothing to support this having being upgraded from a tropical depression to a tropical storm. I know I am not alone in this thinking because a well respected Pro Met also agrees that this should not have been upgraded because there is nothing to support it. A depression sitting and spinning over the mountains of CUBA is not going to become a tropical storm while over those mountains. This is a clear case of trumping the numbers in my opinion. Something that should not be done.

Moving on…what is actually happening presently along the east coast. Is the east coast currently seeing rain associated with NHC labeled Nicole?

The answer to that at the present time is no. The east coast is seeing rainfall from a baroclinic low pressure that has formed along the front which is along the east coast.

90fwbg

So this rain that is spreading northwards has nothing to do with NHC nicole. However it is this low pressure area that will be entraining moisture from NHC nicole that delivers some heavy rains along the east coast.

As for NHC Nicole she will essentially be absorbed into this baroclinic low pressure area . Its important to realize that what comes up along the east coast will not be NHC Nicole but rather this baroclinic area of low pressure with tropical moisture enhancement.

The main threat will continue to be heavy rains with this system. Of course with any convection (thunderstorms) gusty winds would also be a factor but the main emphasis will be the rain from this system.

Tropical Depression # 16 ..Another Update

vis-l

Tropical Depression #16 continues to remain disorganized with the greatest convection still displaced well to the south and east of the system.

AOI1_ir_loop

When looking at the IR loop above..it almost appears as the greatest convection is moving more to the east while the COC is heading NE and currently over Cuba.

convergediverge

The system is still lacking any type of real convergence and divergence and the best is still to the NE off the SE coastline.

shear

Shear continues to be around 10-20 knots and in its pathway still lies a wall of even higher shear.

wg8sht

Voriticity also continues to be quite broad..

vort

www.weathertap.com 2010-9-29 2-55

The above is latest image from the most current radar loop and it shows that moisture is already effecting SE FL. With the center of the system passing along the eastern coast of Fl..the greatest winds with the system will actually not effect the state of Florida for they will remain for the most part off shore.

So the greatest concern out of this is going to be the heavy rains that it will be providing.

For further east up the coast a new baroclinal low pressure area will develop and move up along the coast and this will bring some heavy rains up over the eastern seaboard over the upcoming few days..

Again, however..what will be coming up the coast will not be tropical in any sense of the word but it will be a heavy rain maker with some gusty winds as well but the main story will be the rain.

This will NOT be a superstorm but rather a baroclinic low pressure that follows along a stalled out frontal boundary that will move tropical moisture along that boundary!

The window of opportunity for this to become a named system is slowly winding down. There appears no indication that this is getting its act together as the pressure is still 997 mbs at 6 Z and 30 KTs..

Stay tuned for further updates!

Tuesday, September 28, 2010

The coverage continues on TD #16

vis-l

Latest image of TD # 16 above and it continues to be disorganized and the center of circulation looks to be exposed as the convection is well to the SE of the system.

vort

Vorticity from the last update has become even more broad and large then what it was previously.

convergediverge

Convergence and divergence are both lacking as the greatest area is to the E and then greater area further to the NE off the SE Coast.

shear

Shear has increased slightly to around 10 knots but on the edge of 10-20 knots and greater shear exists in its pathway..

wg8sht

Readers I want you to be aware that this is the only place that has been warning from the beginning about the statements of Nicole being premature because it was not a certainty that this was going to develop into Nicole. This is the only place that you will find that has not hyped the system and has not talked about a superstorm etc .

At this present time..it appears that time is running out on this as far as being able to intensify enough to get named. Unless a new center were to relocate and develop right under neath the convection that is well to the SE.

Models were never really showing this to be much more then a large strung out sheared system..except for the GFS in its long range. There continues to be a reason why you should not take the models beyond 120 hrs.

Make no mistake about it that this has more of a chance to intensify once it is off the SE coast..but by this time it will no longer be tropical and quite possibly no longer be the energy that we are tracking now but a new low pressure area that moves up the coast.

Tropical Depression # 16 Update

AOI1_ir_loop

AOI1_wv_loop

As one can virtually tell where the center once was there is no longer any convection as all the convection is still well to the east. This is because where the center was dry air has started to move into that region so the center has relocated or reformed further to the east.

dry

While it has relocated further to the east..the greatest convection is still to the west of this and it could be this convection that is actually hindering intensification.

As one can see this is very close to land being Cuba and there is essentially no way to avoid going across cuba either.

We will have to see what type of an effect that this has on the depression but being that there is no real organization the effect will probably not be as great as if it was an organized system with a strong core.

convergediverge

vort

While there is some weak convergence and divergence occurring ..the greatest still lies further to the NE of the depression and the vorticity is still quite broad.

shear

As far as intensity after it passes CUBA..i am not really sure if there is going to be much of a chance for strengthening with this as far as being a tropical system is concerned.

As you can see there is much higher shear NE of where this depression is and where it is headed.

wg8sht

This image shows the increasing wall of shear to the northeast of the system. So the environment ahead of the system is not very conducive for strengthening and it may run out of water and time before being picked up by the front and turning extratropical..

Tropical Depression # 16

As was stated last night I would not be surprised if NHC ended up classifying this as a Tropical Depression.

vis-l

AOI1_ir_loop

AOI1_wv_loop

The first image is a recent visible shot. followed by a IR loop and then followed by a water vapor loop. If you look in the upper left hand corner of the image you will be able to see the center of circulation which is exposed.

As of 15 Z the system is still lacking convergence while there is some weak divergence.

image

While there is deep convection it is well displaced from the core of the system off to the east and the SE , As this system starts to gain in latitude it will take on extratropical transitioning rather quickly. With having to cross across CUBA this should prevent any real strengthening from occurring despite the warmer waters and pass just over the eastern coast of FL or right off shore as it moves NE and then transitions energy to a new low closer to the coast..and that new low will move up along the coast.

With the closeness to Cuba and the transitioning to a extratropical storm this should not have much time to become anything more then a minimal tropical storm.

However, as it moves further north it will deepen and will provide heavy rains to the north of the center and gusty winds to the east..however at this point it will no longer be tropical.

96 L Conditions as of 6 Z

Satellite shows that convection is increasing in association with 96 L and as of 6 Z pressure is back down a notch to 1003 mbs. However, the problem is that 96 L is very large and broad and the majority of the convection is well east of where the center of the invest is located. At the present time that is also where the best convergence and divergence is located with this system.

convergediverge

vort

As one can plainly see the vorticity is still really stretched out and elongated. Larger systems take longer time to spin up and develop and that is why development has been rather slow with this system.

Its quite possible that this could be a Tropical Depression as of 6 Z but with such a large circulation and its getting closer to land…I am not sure how much time there would remain to become anything more then a tropical depression.

Not to mention that as this makes its way towards FL it is more then likely going to start taking on either extra tropical features of sub tropical features..So at this point its really difficult and could go either way as far as how NHC wants to officially handle this.

00zeurotropical500mbSLP048

The above is the 00z ECM at 48 hours and you can pretty much see that this is a sheared looking broad system which is also taking on extratropical or subtropical characteristics..

So, it would not surprise me to see this become a depression about 30 minutes from now…However..how long it stays purely warm core tropical will determine on whether it gets named and how long it takes to spin up and what effect land has on it as well..These are things we will be watching thru the next 24 hrs..

96 L Conditions @ 3 Z!

www.ssd.noaa.gov 2010-9-27 23-15

The above image is actually from 00z and at the time the low pressure was 1000mbs and that is what the model runs also initiated at as well.

However, since that time this is the latest conditions for 3 Z

www.ssd.noaa.gov 2010-9-28 0-54

Two things to notice. Cold front getting closer and also the pressure is now up 4 mbs to 1004. So at this moment we really do not have any strengthening occurring with this system.

shear

Shear is currently 10-20 knots across the system. The vorticity continues to be stretched out, large and elongated..

vort

And while there is some weak convergence, the divergence is still lacking with the system.

convergediverge

So at the moment this system is not really getting any better organized and while models do show this coming up the east coast this is almost certainly going to be a hybrid system and not a tropical storm or hurricane.

The main threat appears as though it will be heavy rain from this system…

We will continue to monitor this system and keep you informed of the latest because there is alot of hype out on the net!

Monday, September 27, 2010

Invest 96 L-Latest Look & Conditions!

20100927.1945.goes-13.ircolor.96L.INVEST.25kts.1003mb.18.4N.88W.100pc

AOI1_ir_loop

As of 00z shear has actually increased across the area of 96 L compared to earlier.

shear

While there is  now present a little convergence the best actually is now to the SW of 96 L and the divergence is still lacking across the invest.

convergediverge

Vorticity still remains rather stretched out and broad..

vort

Storm-96-Spaghetti

Latest models generally show this moving in a NE fashion and moving across Cuba and then heading into the FL straits and NE up along the coast or inland.

There are a couple that are further out over the ocean.

www.ssd.noaa.gov 2010-9-27 23-15

The question is whether this is going to be a tropical storm or subtropical storm? Notice how there is a cold front approaching the area . This cold front is not that far off from where 96 L is. Could this cold front manage to pick up Invest 96? If so the interaction with that cold front would keep this from becoming a purely tropical system and instead what you would have moving across florida and up the eastern seaboard would be a hybrid system.

At the present time am leaning 50% a hybrid system and we will continue to monitor the situation.