Tropical Depression 15 has been born but the question is whether or not this is the energy that goes into Florida and then potentially inland over the SE coast?
The IR loop above really shows this depression moving at a pretty good clip off to the west. Estimated speed would appear to be 15-20 MPH.
The following images are based off of 18 Z data..
Shear as of that time is 10-20 knots across the center and you can see that the vorticity is stretched out and elongated.
The other thing to notice is that this depression does not have much space over water before it would be making landfall.
Latest 18 Z models above show even the potential to head across land and emerge into the pacific. Others do turn the system to the NE or some even turn it to the NW..
However..we are dealing with a very complex situation and one that involves more careful attention and analysis then past systems which were CAPE VERDE systems. Those were pretty simple systems and were generally easy to track and follow.
With this system..it has a pretty good chance of going on to the YUCATAN and lingering there and weakening and then it appears that another low develops and this is the low pressure that then potentially develops and tracks towards Florida.
So, not really 100% confident right now in the details and whether or not #15 actually becomes much more then a minimal tropical storm.
Stay tuned for more thoughts!
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