Invest 91 L Thoughts or Also Known as PGI 41L

The above is the latest image of 91 L ot PGI 41L. Below is the latest IR satellite shot with approximation of where the area of low pressure is actually located.

Alot of talk and discussion going on about this particular invest and alot of it is situated around people already calling this IGOR. Problem is that this is NOT IGOR at this point and time but instead an area of potential.  Not saying that this could not eventually become IGOR but by already calling it IGOR now you are actually going ahead of what is happening and occurring and that is that this is still an invest. So the reality of the situation is those people at this point are just once again wishcasting weather because presently there is no IGOR.

This is why Real Wx Services is needed and stands out above the rest because we will not fall into the same trap that others have fallen into.

So lets take a look at this system. First and foremost the system is not really in an area that is conducive for developing. This is not to say this will not develop but rather development would be more on the slow side.

Shear is currently 10-20 knots with 20-30 knots just to the south of the system. The vorticity is stretched out and elongated as well.

You can also see that the vorticity stretches back east to Africa where PGI 42L is located.

Another developing inhibitor is the dry air that is around this system. This is the same type of scenario that was around and effected GASTON (which is essentially no more). Also keep in mind that the very same models that developed GASTON and showed GASTON becoming a hurricane are once again the very same models that are showing this type of scenario with PGI 41 L. Remember GASTON was as high as 80% at one point and time and never redeveloped and is questionable as to whether it was ever anything more then a depression.  So, as one can see the environment is not the greatest around the system. It might not prevent development but it should be enough to make development on the slower side.

This invest is expected to continue to move mainly west over the next couple days..so what type of environment would be further to the west in its future path?

Presently the area to the west is pretty much filled with dry air and it has to remain to be seen whether or not the shear and dry air can keep PGI 41 L in check or not.